MLB Midseason Recap and Preview Combo

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Breaking a 99-year-old record held by a man named Chief Wilson? Now that would be special.

Despite all the predictive columns I’ve written since the inception of this blog, I’ve never revisited any of those pieces to determine what went right and what went (horribly) wrong.  This changes today, as I re-examine my original Major League Baseball predictions from the preseason.  Some things went just about according to plan (the AL East, Justin Verlander as a Cy Young contender, the top of the NL East), others, well, didn’t (the AL Central, the Pirates, the A’s to win the AL West? Really?!).  But that’s all part of the fun.  And now, I combine a 1^st-half recap with a 2^nd-half forecast surely to be packed with drama and intrigue (the wild card races not withstanding):

AL EAST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                            Midseason Prediction

Y - Red Sox 98-64             Red Sox 55-35                             Y - Red Sox 98-64

X - Yankees 92-70             Yankees 53-35                             X - Yankees 95-67

Rays 87-75                         Rays 49-41                                   Rays 89-73

Blue Jays 82-80                  Blue Jays 45-47                            Blue Jays 81-81

Orioles 74-88                     Orioles 36-52                                Orioles 67-95

A look back:

• I went chalk all the way with this division prediction, and at the midway point, things are holding true to form.  But it didn’t always appear that would be the case, what with Boston bumbling out to a 2-10 start with new LF Carl Crawford (.135/.190/.162, 2 2Bs, 0 HRs, 4 BB, 14 K’s in 74 ABs over his 1^st 18 games in Boston) holding the flag of underachievement and its fanbase kvetching with discontent.  Naturally, the team more than recovered, righting the ship to the tune of a 53-25 finish to the 1^st half thanks to an MVP first half from their other marquee addition, 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.354/.414/.591, 17 HRs, the AL leader in hits (128), doubles (29), and RBI (77)).

• The Yankees’ pitching staff more than made up for the ineffectiveness and dead arm of Phil Hughes, thanks to the stunning resurgence of Bartolo Colon.  Colon has nearly thrown the most innings this season (90) since his Cy Young season of 2005 and has posted a 6-4 record, 3.20 ERA, his best career WHIP 1.44, and a K/BB ratio of 3.59 that rivals that 2005 campaign.

• Tampa’s little-engine-that-could reputation remains strong, due in large part to the unforeseen dominance of righty James Shields (2.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.89 xFIP, 3.4 WAR).  And despite the loss of relievers Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano, the Rays’ bullpen hasn’t fallen off much of where it was from last season (3.33 ERA to 3.62). and has lost just 8 games in 2011, the fewest in MLB.

• Joey Bats, aka Jose Bautista, continues to mash (his 85 home runs since the start of the 2010 season crushes the2^nd-place 61 dingers from White Sox 1B Paul Konerko), and his team is tied for 3^rd in the bigs in home runs with 107, but the pitching staff hasn’t picked up the slack, as its team ERA of 4.13 ranks 22^nd in baseball.

• Hope was rekindled in Charm City as the Orioles jumped out to a quick 6-1 start that had the fanbase screaming PLAYOFFS!!!!!  Yep, right up until the team immediately fell back to earth with an 8-game losing streak.  Still, nearing the conclusion of the interleague play, the team hovered around the .500 mark at 35-40.  Yep, and then the team crashed to a 1-12 finish to close out the 1^st half.  I’m really worried about LHP Brian Matusz, whose velocity plummeted this season coming off an oblique injury, and it stands to reason that veterans like DH Vladimir Guerrero, 1B Derrek Lee, and LF/1B Luke Scott may be moved before season’s end.  It seems not even the great Buck Showalter can save the Orioles’ 2011 campaign (but he certainly can fire his team up).

Fearless Forecast:

Fresh off the DL, LF Carl Crawford is primed for an epic 2^nd half.  Finally settled in Boston, Crawford remains healthy the rest of the year and wreaks havoc, to the tune of a .315/.360/.450 hitting line and 25 stolen bases … Similarly, Phil Hughes shakes off arm weakness from the first half of the season and, thanks to considerable improvement in velocity, solidifies a Yankee rotation due for a regression from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia and delivers a 6-2 record, 3.70 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP over 85 innings … The Rays finish with the 4^th-best record in the AL, yet finish 3^rd in the vaunted Eastern division thanks to the 2 juggernauts above them, and rekindle discussions of realignment at the Winter Meetings in the offseason … Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista launches 60 homers in the new profoundly pitcher-friendly era, but finishes 2^nd in MVP voting thanks to the .363, 35-homer, 145-RBI delivered by Boston 1B Adrian Gonzalez in what proves to be one of the best MVP races in recent memory… Luke Scott is activated from the DL on July 19, as expected – just in time to be traded prior to the July 31 trade deadline, clearing the way for the O’s to sign Brewers 1B Prince Fielder in the offseason (as I forecasted here). 

AL CENTRAL

Preseason Pick                Halfway Mark                          Midseason Prediction

Y - Twins 90-72                Tigers 49-43                               Y - Twins 84-78

White Sox 87-75               Indians 47-42                              Tigers 83-79

Tigers 83-79                      White Sox 44-48                        White Sox 81-81

Royals 64-98                     Twins 41-48                                Indians 77-85

Indians 61-101                   Royals 37-54                              Royals 66-96

A look back:

• It’s Justin Verlander’s world, and we’re all just living in it.  The Detroit ace is 2^nd in the league in wins with a 12-4 record, 2^nd with a 2.15 ERA, best in strikeouts with 147 and in WHIP at 0.87, 3^rd in K/BB ratio 4.74; the list keeps going.  But the number I’m most impressed with is 151, the number of innings he’s pitched.  In a league of managers and organizations babying and coddling their pitchers by limiting innings and pitch-counts, Verlander and manager Jim Leyland are throwbacks to a previous era, and it’s very refreshing to see.

• The American League’s 1^st-half stunning surprise arose in the up-for-grabs Central division, as the incredible amount of injuries befalling the defending champion Minnesota Twins provided the Cleveland Indians with the opportunity to race out to a 30-15 record on May 23, which was the best in the American League by over 5 games.  But they’ve seemingly done it with smoke and mirrors, as their team ERA of 3.96 ranks 18^th in baseball, and their offense 13^th in runs scored with 386.  It’s hard to see a rotation led by Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Justin Masterson leading a team to a division title, and the Indians are just 17-27 since their great start.  But given the weakness of the Central as a whole, Cleveland has a chance to at least finish at .500 this year, which may be good enough to win the poor division.

• So who kidnapped Adam Dunn and replaced him with the monstrosity of a baseball player that current resides on the South Side of Chicago?!  Dunn has quite possibly been the worst player in the American League, so bad that Jayson Stark of ESPN.com named him his Least Valuable Player of the season’s 1^st half.  You can’t fault Sox GM Kenny Williams for this one: the Sox had a huge need for lefty power, and Dunn had produced his entire career (career .250/.381/521, 35 HRs, 88 RBI, 27 doubles).  But for whatever reason, Dunn fell off a cliff this year (.160/.292/.305, 9 HRs, 35 RBI, 12 doubles).  The only really tangible difference this year has been his move to the American League.  Does that really explain Dunn’s demise as a quality player?  The whole situation has been befuddling, and has created an utter disaster for Chicago, who owe him $56 million over the life of the contract that runs through 2014. Yikes.

• And that brings us to this writer’s pride and joy, the rising yet underachieving Minnesota Twins.  A 17-37 beginning and Joe Mauer’s “bilateral leg weakness” diagnosis had me in a fan coma for the first 2 months of the year.  But despite the manhandling of injuries the team has incurred (the list of Twins who have spent time on the disabled list and the amount of games missed: Denard Span 33, Tsuyoshi Nishioka 60, Mauer 58, Justin Morneau 34, Jason Kubel 37, Delmon Young 34, Jim Thome 49), the team has somehow remained competitive.  LHP Francisco Liriano and RHP Nick Blackburn have struggled of late, but LHP Brian Duensing and RHP Carl Pavano have been steady, and RHP Scott Baker is enjoying the best season of his career (3.01 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 8.1 H/9, 1.18 WHP, all career-bests with at least 100 innings).  OF Ben Revere and SS Alexi Casilla have also caught fire and ignited the top of the lineup, which I detailed in this column.  The bullpen remains a huge question mark, but the backend, with the sudden emergence of LHP Glen Perkins, marked improvement from RHP Joe Nathan, and steady hand of closer Matt Capps, is solid.

• Hope continues to permeate in Kansas City, whose faith have already witnessed the arrivals of ballyhooed prospects 1B Eric Hosmer and 3B Mike Moustakas.  Hosmer has produced a decent .268 average and .748 OPS so far with 8 homers and 11 doubles, and will now get a chance to grow at the major league level.  LHP Danny Duffy already has gotten some starting experience, and soon, KC will be inundated with more youngsters, as C/RF Wil Myers and lefty pitchers Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer figure to arrive in the next couple of years.  The 2011 season won’t get much better, but fear not Royals fans, AL Central contention is right around the corner.

Fearless Forecast:

HOMERISM ALERT: That’s correct, I’m calling for a 3-peat of AL Central titles for my Minnesota Twins, despite all odds.  Look, I get it.  The team is 41-48, 6.5 games back in the division, 3 teams sit ahead of them, Justin Morneau won’t be back until mid-August at earliest, etc.  But did you know the Twins sport a 24-11 record since June 1, good for 2^nd best in all of MLB, behind only Boston’s 25-9?  That the team has played 11 more road than home games through the All-Star break?  That the team is a combined 11-2 against fellow AL Central contenders Chicago and Cleveland?  Yes I know, the Twins have yet to beat Detroit this season (0-5).  But you know what?  They don’t scare me (other than Verlander, that is).  And all of those games were prior to the Twins’ recent hot streak.  Plus Detroit has a history of collapsing when trying to stave off the Twins in the division race (see: 2006, 2009).  The Twins win the Central once again – and then promptly lose 3 straight against the overwhelmingly-favored Red Sox.  Thanks for playing! … Tigers RHP Justin Verlander laps the field in the race for the Cy Young award, finishing with 23 wins, a 2.30 ERA, and 280 strikeouts in 260 innings – but no other Tiger starter throws an ERA of under 4, and his team misses out on the playoffs once again … Chicago loses Jake Peavy to the disabled list at least one more time, the law of averages catches up to Phil Humber (3.10 ERA in 107 innings, career 5.26 ERA over 51.1 innings before this year), and Chicago’s team starter’s ERA finishes higher than Minnesota’s … Cleveland’s pitching staff regresses while seeing  DH Travis Hafner (.325/.406/.528) and All-Star SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.293/.347/.489, 14 HRs, 51 RBI) tail off from their crazy-good 1^st-halves and fall to 4^th place in the division … Kansas City once again finishes with the worst record in the AL, and along the way deal IF Wilson Betemit and OF Jeff Francoeur to contenders while promoting at least one of the aforementioned kids to the bigs for a September trial run at the majors.  Next year the team takes a greater step towards .500, and contends in 2013.

AL WEST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                      Midseason Prediction

Y – A’s 87-75                   Rangers 51-41                         Y - Rangers 92-70

Rangers 86-76                    Angels 50-42                          Angels 88-74

Angels 76-86                      Mariners 43-48                       Mariners 70-92

Mariners 63-99                  A’s 39-53                                A’s 68-94

A look back:

• Cliff who?  LHP C.J. Wilson has built on his breakthrough 2010 campaign in which he transitioned to a starting pitcher full-time, and made his first All-Star team in 2011 thanks to a campaign of 9-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and career-best 2.79 K/BB, far better than last year’s 1.83 in which he led the American League with 93 walks.  Texas is second in runs scored and batting average, overcoming the losses of OF’s Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz for stretches of the season to hold off the Angels for 1^st the AL West through the season’s 1^st half.  The wild card races may be moot in both leagues this year, but the division races will be exciting, and the Western division of the American League is no exception.

• Quick, who was the back-up 2B for the AL All-Star team?  Waiting, waiting, and…… time!  It was Howie Kendrick of the Angels, and believe me, he deserved the recognition.  After being underappreciated while playing in the shadow of other American League All-Star 2B’s like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler, Kendrick pushed his way into the spotlight by being on pace for career highs in all hitting line stats (.302/.360/.462), homers (16), total bases (278), and even walks (42).  Kendrick has led a balanced lineup that has gotten help from new 1B Mark Trumbo (team-high 17 homers) and from a rotation led by the AL ERA leader, Jered Weaver (1.86 ERA).  The Angels are right behind Texas in the heated AL West race, and are poised to put a lackluster 2010 campaign behind them and re-take the West crown.

• Move over Felix, you’ve got some competition for the Most Popular Pitcher in the Northwest label.  Rookie RHP Michael Pineda has been a revelation for the Mariners (113 innings, 8-6, 3.03 ERA, 9.0 K/BB, 6.5 H/9 (wow), 0.8 HR/9, 1.04 WHIP), and the duo of he and defending Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez have kept on the fringe of the AL West race at 43-48.  The prize of last year’s Cliff Lee trade, 1B Justin Smoak, continues to progress (.229/.327/.418, 12 HRs, 20 doubles, 43 RBIs), and stud prospect 2B Dustin Ackley has arrived and been outstanding in his first 20 games (.304/.364/.536).  Contention is still a pipe dream in 2011, but with several core young players in place, the Mariners are quietly building a winner in the coming years.

• My Oakland-wins-the-AL West call was probably my worst, and you can’t really even say they’ve underachieved.  The pitching staff has been wrecked by injuries, and the lineup really hasn’t competed all season long.  First, LHP Dallas Braden was lost to a tear in his shoulder in May.  And now, fellow lefty Brett Anderson is also out, possibly until 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Along with chronic health risks Brandon McCarthy and Rich Harden, the A’s really never had a chance in 2011.

Fearless Forecast:

After outbidding the Angels in an epic bullpen arms race, closer Heath Bell is traded to Texas, who is desperate for relief help (4.57 bullpen ERA, 4^th-worst in MLB) and badly needs a late-inning solution with Alexi Ogando in the rotation and the lack of a reliable bridge to closer Neftali Feliz, who is just in his 2^nd season as full-time closer … Having lost out on Bell, the Angels settled for Leo Nunez of the Marlins to aid their already-formidable ‘pen (11^th in reliever ERA at 3.38).  The AL West race goes to the wire, and the defending champion Rangers stave off their Los Angeles counterparts for their 2^nd straight title … With the team gradually falling out of the race in the division, Seattle shuts down the rookie Pineda at the 180-inning mark, missing the final 3-4 weeks of the season.  But his numbers are so stellar, that he has no problem taking the AL Rookie of the Year … OF Josh Willingham is dealt to the Phillies in a salary dump, and DH Hideki Matsui is also traded, as the A’s ride the wave of injuries to their worst record since 1997.

NL EAST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                         Midseason Prediction

Y - Phillies 93-69                Phillies 57-34                            Y – Phillies 95-67

X - Braves 90-72                Braves 54-38                            Braves 92-70

Marlins 86-76                     Mets 46-45                               Nationals 82-80

Nationals 72-90                  Nationals 46-46                         Mets 76-86

Mets 68-94                         Marlins 43-48                           Marlins 71-91

A look back:

• The Phantastic Phour lost a key member in Roy Oswalt, but didn’t miss a beat.  The other Thrilling Three more than picked up the slack as RHP Roy Halladay and LHP’s Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were as good as advertised (combined 412.2 innings, 31-13, 0.6 HR/9, 1.00 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, 7.08 K/BB ratio), and Vance Worley has been a nice surprise as well (4-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 49 innings over 8 starts and 10 appearances).  And the club has far and away the best record in the NL despite ranking just 14^th overall in runs (384) and 18^th in OPS (.705).  With 2B Chase Utley back after missing the first 50 games, expect the Phillies to only improve offensively (as well as adding an outfield bat before the trade deadline).

• So can you guess who the NL ERA leader is?  He’s Curacao-born, speaks 4 languages, and was part of an outright heist of a trade that in which he was sent to Atlanta in exchange for the corpse of Edgar Renteria.  His name is Jair Jurrjens, and his 1.87 ERA and 12 wins are tops in the Senior Circuit.  The Braves are just a shade behind the rival Phillies in ERA at 3.11, quietly constructing an elite rotation built for postseason play and sporting the best 1-2 punch at the back of the bullpen in the league in lefty Jonny Venters and right Craig Kimbrel, both of whom made their first All-Star teams this year.  Like Philadelphia, they are also offensively-challenged (18^th in runs, 22 in OPS), but should they add a bat at the deadline (or if 2B Dan Uggla gives them anything more than the .185/.257/.365 he gave them in the 1^st half), look out for the boys from the A-T-L.

• Anybody have 2B Danny Espinosa hitting 16 homers and driving in 52 runs for the .500 Nationals at the All-Star break?  The rookie of the year favorite, buoyed by the breakout performance of 1B Michael Morse (.306/.351/.535, 15 HRs, 49 RBI) have the surprising Natties in the think of the NL East race.  Washington probably lacks the staying power to hang with the Phillies and Braves, and RF Jayson Werth has been a disappointing in his first season in the nation’s capital (.215/.319/.362, 10 HR,s 31 RBI, 16 doubles in 88 games).  But with young Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan anchoring the rotation, Ryan Zimmerman, Espinosa, Morse, and catcher Wilson Ramos heading an improving young lineup, and the promise of RHP Stephen Strasburg and OF Bryce Harper on the horizon, the Nasty Nats are poised and ready for contention in the next year or 2.  In the mean time, their best finish since their first year in D.C. in 2005 (81-81) is more than reasonable.

• Speaking of worlds we live in, how good has Jose Reyes been this year?!  League-best marks in hits (124) and average (.354)?  A .529 slugging percentage despite only 3 home runs?  On pace to challenge the triples record, set in the dead-ball era?  Although now on shelf due to a hamstring injury, Reyes nearly single-handedly kept the Mets in contention, as a team projected for 70 wins at best and is in the midst of an ownership quagmire has managed to hover around the .500 mark.  The Metropolitans remain a long-shot for postseason play, but Reyes’ renaissance has revived fan interest and generated some hope that Reyes may re-up with the club following the 2011 season’s conclusion.

• The June resignation of manager Edwin Rodriguez underscored the lost cause that has become of 2011 Florida Marlins campaign.  The Marlins fell off the face of the earth, following a 31-22 start with a 1-19 face plant.  The team has since rebounded by concluding the 1^st half with an 9-3 spurt, but at 43-48 and no Josh Johnson for possibly the rest of the season, all South Beach fans can look forward is the promise of a brand new ballpark in 2012.

Fearless Forecast:

The fightin’ Phillies outlast the threatening Braves for the NL East title, but do so without the services of RHP Roy Oswalt, who has already started his final game for the Phillies.  The bulging disk in his back knocks him for the remainder of 2011, and the Phils do not pick up his $16 million option for 2012, instead choosing to reallocate their resources elsewhere … 2B Dan Uggla finally wakes up from his prolonged season-long slump and submits a .240/.300/.450 batting line in the 2^nd half, adding the bat Atlanta needs from within and leading the Braves to the brink of the NL East title before settling for the wild card … SS Jose Reyes, adequately rested following a minor hamstring injury, continues on his MVP tear and finishes the 2011 season with line of .345/.400/.520 line (winning his first batting title in a runaway), 7 homers, 70 RBI, and 65 stolen bases.  But his Mets, unable to find an adequate trade partner thanks to an unwilling group of suitors and no right match, keep Reyes the rest of the season, finish in a distant 4^th place, make a competitive offer to him in the offseason – only to see him sign with their cross-town rival New York Yankees for an 8-year deal.  The Yankees install him as their shortstop, don’t pick up Nick Swisher’s option, and send Derek Jeter to right field … Jack McKeon doesn’t save the Fish this time around, as the loss of RHP Josh Johnson (who ends up missing the rest of the season) and the perplexing fall from grace of SS Hanley Ramirez lead the Marlins to the depths of the NL East.

NL CENTRAL

Preseason Pick                Halfway Mark                            Midseason Prediction

Y - Reds 91-71                 Brewers 49-43                              Y -Brewers 89-73

Brewers 89-73                  Cardinals 49-43                             Reds 87-75

Cardinals 85-77                 Pirates 47-43                                Cardinals 85-77

Cubs 80-82                       Reds 45-47                                   Pirates 78-84

Astros 76-86                     Cubs 37-55                                   Cubs 69-93

Pirates 60-102                   Astros 30-62                                Astros 65-97

A look back:

• As Buster Olney wrote in his recent column, the Brewers pushed all their chips in the middle of those that brought starters Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, clearly suggest a 2011-or-bust strategy for Milwaukee.  Greinke has been erratic at best, with a 5.45 ERA in 74.1 innings and posting incredibly profound home-road splits (home: 5-0, 4.09 ERA, .722 OPS allowed, 15.5 K/BB; road: 2-3, 7.42 ERA, .840 opposing OPS, 3.08 K/BB).  The Marcum trade has gone better, as he has a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 111 innings.  The Crew is relying heavily on these pitchers and on Yovani Gallardo to make a deep playoff run, as 1B Prince Fielder’s impending free agency is looming large.

• Boy, I sure got the Albert-Pujols-for-NL-MVP call wrong, didn’t I?  My anticipation of his entering into Eff-You Mode due to a lack of a contract extension with St. Louis didn’t exactly come to fruition, as the 3-time MVP stumbled to .245/.305/.453 April.  But he recovered to post a .280/.357/.500 first half, and shook off a scary wrist injury to miss just 2 weeks and return to the potent Cardinals lineup (5^th in MLB with 433 runs scored).  The real story of the first half was RF/1B Lance Berkman, who leads the NL in homers (24), slugging (.602), OPS (1.006), and OPS+ (182, league-average is 100).

• The Buccos! They’re alive!  After 18 consecutive losing seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates on the threshold of ending the streak in 2011, heading into the break with a 47-43 mark.  CF Andrew McCutchen’s rise to prominence finally culminated in an All-Star berth (though it seemed the powers that be were conspiring against him), and the pitching staff led by unlikely stellar quintet of Jeff Karstens, Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald.  The team still lacks much semblance of a major-league caliber lineup (22^nd in MLB in runs), and figures to bow out of the NL Central race at some point.  But the 2011 Pirates have nonetheless awoken a dormant fanbase stunned by the team’s solid play, and inspiring hope that the franchise may finally have a winning plan in place to contend for future playoff berths.

• The under-the-radar disappointing team of the 2011 season has been the Cincinnati Reds, who have seen their ERA ranking drop from 12^th to 24^th as a result of rotation injuries.  Only 3 starters have qualified for the ERA title (Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Bronson Arroyo), and none of that group has an ERA below 4.28.  RHP Edinson Volquez has been a disappointment (5.93 ERA in 16 starts), and fellow starters Johnny Cueto (an outstanding 1.96 ERA in just 12 starts over 82.2 innings) and Homer Bailey (8 starts) have missed time due to injury.  The Reds are, however, the most potent scoring team in the National League (437 runs in 92 games), thanks to a banner defending MVP-year from 1B Joey Votto (.945 OPS) and a breakout campaign from OF Jay Bruce (team-best 21 homers), who made his first All-Star team.

• North Side faithful are already pulling out the “wait till next year” and “when does Bears season start” slogans, counting down the seconds until the 2011 season is mercifully over.  The Cubs are 3^rd-to-last in ERA thanks to a rudderless ship of a starting rotation (5.29 ERA, worst in MLB).  The trade watch is already on, as RHP Carlos Zambrano, 3B Aramis Ramirez, and OF Alfonso Soriano are shopped for future pieces and/or salary relief.

• Similarly to Chicago, Houston’s season ended in May, as the Astros are in the midst of what is sure to become their worst season as a member of the NL Central, and last with GM Ed Wade in charge.  The team is due to be sold, and the new owner should look no farther than the other team in the state of Texas in terms of how to properly transition into new ownership and put a winning organization together.  All-Star OF Hunter Pence is the lone quality player on the roster, and it will takes several years of building before Houston is competitive again.

Fearless Forecast:

The addition of RHP Francisco Rodriguez at the All-Star break caused quite a stir for Brewer faithful, but the man formerly known as K-Rod saves just 3 games the rest of the way for Milwaukee, who are very well aware of the $17.5-option he is due should he finish 55 games.  Current closer John Axford is unaffected by any K-Rod-to-closer talk, saving 20 more games and dwarfing Rodriguez’s K/BB ratio (11.54 vs. 9.70) … With the rotation floundering and LHP Aroldis Chapman improving as relief, the Reds stretch him out and move him into the rotation for the final 6 weeks of the season.  Cincy makes a late push to repeat as NL Central champs, but falls just short, as Milwaukee’s all-in plan prevails by just 2 games … Despite arguably the best 3-4-5 hitter combo in the league, the Cardinals fall to a 3^rd-place finish in division, as the Berkman’s production tails off considerably in the 2^nd half.  The spring training loss of RHP Adam Wainwright comes back to rear its ugly head, with the pitching staff unable to be saved by the likes of Kyle Lohse, Jason Motte, and Fernando Salas … The Pirates’ brass sticks to its building plan, eschewing thoughts of trading for stars like David Wright and add only a marginal relief pitcher to the team before the August 31 waiver deadline.  Lacking impact bats, Pittsburgh falls to 4^th place, but instills the long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel for their tortured fans … The Cubs trade 3B Aramis Ramirez to the Angels, but are predictably unable to find a taker for the albatross that is OF Alfonso Soriano.  GM Jim Hendry is shedding as much as salary as he can as he begins his pitch to steal a certain rival first baseman who wears currently Red and White … At the last minute, Astros GM Ed Wade realizes how dumb trading OF Hunter Pence is, hanging on to the All-Star outfielder and allowing the new GM to build around him in 2012 and beyond.  Pence is not able to save the Astros from plummeting to their worst season in 20 years, however.

NL WEST

Preseason Pick             Halfway Mark                     Midseason Prediction

Y - Giants 92-70            Giants 52-40                          Giants 93-69

Rockies 89-73                Diamondbacks 49-43            Rockies 84-78

Dodgers 84-78               Rockies 43-48                       Diamondbacks 80-82

Padres 76-86                 Dodgers 41-51                       Dodgers 75-87

Diamondbacks 69-93     Padres 40-52                         Padres 72-90

A look back:

• The devastating Buster Posey injury has not stopped the Giants, who have compiled a 25-18 record since their star catcher went down with torn ankle ligaments.  The pitching is actually better than last year (3.19 ERA this season vs. a league-best 3.36 ERA last year), and the club, despite its offensive issues, remains the biggest threat to the favored Phillies for the NL pennant.

• The underrated surprise MLB team of 2011 not getting the headlines of Cleveland or Pittsburgh has been the All-Star Game hosts, the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Everyone knew the team could hit (7^th in MLB with 416 runs scored, 6^th with 102 home runs) thanks to the bandbox they play in, but few could foresee the sudden ascent of the pitching staff (an improvement from a 4.81 ERA last year, 3^rd-worst in the league, to 4.08 this year).  The bullpen has been the main catalyst, improving a league-worst ERA last year (5.74) which was a full run worse than the next worst team nearly 2 runs to 3.98.

• It’s been a Tale of Two Seasons for RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.  He sits at a disappointing 4-8 record and 4.14 ERA this year after posting a 15-1 mark and 2.20 ERA heading into last year’s All-Star break.  His personal collapse has mirrored his Rockies’ free fall, as the club finished 43-48 at this year’s break and 8.5 games back after being only 2 games out of 1^st place year with a 49-39 mark.  The loss of LHP Jorge de la Rosa has also hurt, as has the relative struggles of SS Troy Tulowitzki (.249/.302/.419 in his last 70 games after a .364/.486/.836 start to the year), but the team goes as Jimenez goes, and it hasn’t gone real far in 2011.

• The ongoing divorce saga as evolved into a bankruptcy case, as Frank McCourt continues to press on in the desperate hope that he can continue to use the Dodgers as his personal ATM retains his ownership of the Dodgers (brilliantly detailed in this column).  As a result, their finances are completely locked down, with no pieces moving on or off the team.  OF Matt Kemp has posted an MVP-type season (.313/.398/.584, 22 HRs, 67 RBI, 27 stolen bases), but he hasn’t gotten much help, and consequently, his team is mired in 4^th place without much hope.

• As has been the case for much of the recent history since moving into Petco Park, the Padres have been at or near the top in the league in pitching (5^th this year in overall ERA at 3.23, and 1^st in bullpen ERA at 2.84), and in the dregs of the league offensively (2^nd to last in runs scored at 304 in 92 games).  The departure of 1B Adrian Gonzalez has predictably played a large role in their fall, as the Pads are 13 games worse now than they were at this same point last season (51-37, 40-52).  The youthful Anthony Rizzo, acquired in the Gonzo trade, provides the long-term view at the position, but he still has quite a bit of development left to go (.165/.304/.306, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 doubles, 13 walks in 102 plate appearances spanning 28 games).

Fearless Forecast:

Despite an offense ranking 4^th-to-last with just 332 runs scored, the Giants make no marquee offensive addition (other than the promotion of prospect Brandon Belt), yet still cruise to the NL West title a minimum of 9 games better than the 2^nd-place challenger … The Rockies resist the temptation to move Ubaldo Jimenez and improve considerably in the season’s 2^nd half thanks to a resurgence from SS Troy Tulowitzki and the continued outstanding pitching of young Jhoulys Chacin, rallying past Arizona in the division but fall well short of a playoff berth … With starter Ian Kennedy approaching an innings total far surpassing the next largest mark of his career, and with youngsters Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter also reaching career-high usage rates, they hit walls as the 2011 season arrives its twilight, and Arizona falls back and finishes in 3^rd place … With the ownership situation a total clusterf**k, the Dodgers don’t sell any pieces from their major league roster.  That means potentially valuable trade chips like Hiroki Kuroda and Jamey Carroll remain as Dodgers until season’s end …  Contrary to what the rumor suggests, Mike Adams is NOT traded by the Padres thanks to his affordability next season, and steps into Bell’s place as closer.

Postseason predictions

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Yankees over Twins (sigh)                            Red Sox over Twins

Red Sox over A’s                                              Yankees over Rangers

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Red Sox over Yankees                                   Red Sox over Yankees

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Reds over Phillies                                             Phillies over Brewers

Giants over Braves                                          Giants over Braves

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Reds over Giants                                              Phillies over Giants

WORLD SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Red Sox over Reds                                          Red Sox over Phillies

Awards

MVP

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals                           SS Jose Reyes, Mets

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees                        1B Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

Cy Young

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Felix Hernandez, Mariners                           Justin Verlander, Tigers

Josh Johnson, Marlins                                    Roy Halladay, Phillies

Rookie of the Year

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays                       RHP Michael Pineda, Mariners

1B Brandon Belt, Giants                                2B Danny Espinosa, Nationals