Prince Fielder... to the O's?!

The Prince. Could he be wearing Black and Orange next season?

 

This past Thursday (April 21^st), the Milwaukee Brewers announced a contract extension with their cornerstone left fielder, Ryan Braun.  Despite already being under contract until 2015 for a total of about $40.5 million, the Brew Crew worked with Braun on extending his pact an additional 5 years that has him owed approximately $141.5 million through 2020, with a $20 million mutual option or $4 million buyout due to him in 2021.  The deal all but assures the superstar LF will be another Robin Yount: a Brewer for life.

The stunning announcement comes at a time when optimism around the Milwaukee ball club is at an all-time high.  The team acquired Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to boost a withering rotation around holdover Yovani Gallardo.  The team’s attendance has ascended each year in gorgeous new Miller Park, save for a small drop off last season.  The expectations for this year’s team are similar to that of when LHP C.C. Sabathia was acquired for the stretch run in 2008: playoffs or bust, if not a deep playoff run.  However, there remains one question, one form of unfinished business, which sticks in the craw of the greater Milwaukee area:

Will the Brewers be able to ink prospective free agent 1B Prince Fielder to an extension following the 2011 season?

Fielder has been saying all the right things, and at the right price, Prince surely would love to stay with the only big-league organization he’s ever known.  But at what price will that be?  Although they shouldn’t face challenges from the big bad AL East powers from the Bronx and Beantown, Milwaukee will not be without competition for the elite-hitting first baseman’s services, as the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, and perhaps St. Louis Cardinals could all be in the running.

Yet lying in the weeds, ready to swoop in to battle their elite divisional counterparts, sit my darkhorse pick to land the Prince in the winter of 2011:

The Baltimore Orioles.

Yes, those Baltimore Orioles.  This is the same franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since its last postseason berth in 1997.  This is the team that started 32-73 last year, on pace for a 112-loss season.

But instead, they finished 34-23 over the final two months of the 2010 year under new manager Buck Showalter, who instilled a new winning attitude around the team as they improved in all facets of the game and started playing winning baseball.  A 2-11 stretch has befallen the club following a hope-inspiring 6-1 start to the 2011 campaign, but not all hope is lost.  Baltimore will be challenged to compete in 2011, but they aren’t built to win right now.  The lineup should be marginally improved with additions of DH Vladimir Guerrero, 1B Derrek Lee, and 3B Mark Reynolds, but with the possible exception of Reynolds, these are stop-gap solutions, not long-term fixes.  The rise of the Birds depends greatly on the growth, maturity, and improved performance of the very-young Oriole starters.  LHPs Brian Matusz and Zach Britton have #1-starter capabilities (Britton’s sinker has been compared by ESPN Insider Buster Olney to a better lefty version of Fernando Valenzuela’s, check it out at about the 43-minute mark), while RHPs Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have the stuff to be in the big leagues for a long time as middle- to back-end rotation-type starters.  The Orioles absolutely believe they can compete with the rest of their elite division in the coming years.

So the logical next step?  Signing Prince Fielder, the second-most premiere free agent in the 2011 class (I fully expect Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis).  Now for my reasoning why:

THE TEAM HAS A HUGE NEED AT FIRST BASE

The Orioles have had a revolving door at the position since the end of 2005, when Rafael Palmeiro retired.  Let’s face it; Derrek Lee is nothing more than a 1-year fix.  GM Andy MacPhail has paid attention to what New York and Boston have done in recent years, adding Mark Teixiera and Adrian Gonzalez, respectively, to man the right side of the diamond for years to come.  While Prince is not nearly the defensive stalwart the aforementioned two 1Bs are, the offensive statistics are quite comparable to the two, as well as to fellow elite 1B Ryan Howard of the Phillies.  Take a look:

PLAYER 162-GAME AVERAGES (Baseball Reference)
Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
Adrian Gonzalez	599	92	170	35	2	31	99	78	125	0.284	0.368	0.504	0.872	136	302
Ryan Howard	600	102	167	30	3	46	139	85	192	0.279	0.371	0.57	0.941	140	342
Mark Teixiera	615	104	175	40	2	37	121	82	124	0.285	0.377	0.538	0.914	134	330
Prince Fielder	574	92	161	32	2	37	105	88	129	0.281	0.386	0.536	0.922	140	308

Fielder also has maintained extraordinary durability throughout his career, missing a total of 13 games over the past 5 seasons.  This compares favorably to Gonzalez (11 missed games over that span), Howard (42), and Teixiera (45, 30 in one season).  His track record is outstanding, and even if he becomes decreasingly effective in the field, the Orioles would have the option of penciling him in as the designated hitter, an option National League clubs, of course, do not have.

Next, we take a look at what the Orioles have in-house at the position.  Their best prospect at the position?  Joe Mahoney, who broke out as the organization’s minor league player of the year at Class AA last year, but hadn’t put together great minor-league seasons prior to that.  A 2007 6^th round pick, Mahoney is ranked by ESPN Insider Keith Law as the 8^th-best prospect in the organization, and has the versatility to play left field as well as first base.  With Derrek Lee set to be a free agent at the end of 2011, and Luke Scott’s final arbitration year set for 2012, the O’s could give Mahoney the necessary minor-league time to develop at either or both positions in 2011, shift him to left field in 2012, give him some major-league playing time that same season (while possibly shopping Scott, if he’s brought back at all), and potentially give him the full-time LF job in 2013 should he continue to perform in the minors.  But Mahoney had been a fringe prospect prior to last year’s breakout campaign, so if he cannot build on last year’s performance, it stands to reason the O’s could look outside the organization for other options.

Looking at the big-league club as it is currently comprised, it’s not hard to get excited about its short- and long-term prospects.  The team has cornerstones at no fewer than 4 positions, including every up-the-middle spot.  C Matt Wieters’ college and minor-league hitting prowess has not yet translated to the majors, but Joe Mauer’s power potential wasn’t tapped until his 5^th full-season (and has since been sapped).  But he will definitely hit given more at-bats, and has drawn raves for his catching and pitch-calling abilities.  A healthy 2B Brian Roberts is as good as any second baseman in the game.  CF Adam Jones is a Gold-Glover in center field and provides solid if unspectacular production from the right side of the plate.  RF Nick Markakis is a quality corner outfielder with plus range and arm and is a consistent 20-HR/90-RBI lefty hitter you can plug into the #3 spot in the lineup.  And this says nothing of young Manny Machado, Law’s 26^th-best prospect entering 2011.  Machado is still a few years away from the bigs, but is said to have All-Star potential with the combination of strong hitting ability and defensive acumen to man a left-side-of-the-infield position for years to come.  And J.J. Hardy, when healthy, should provide decent hitting and outstanding glove work in the mean time until Machado is ready.

The addition of Fielder would add a 5^th cornerstone player to the roster, and continue Baltimore’s ascent to competitive status in the AL East.

THE ORGANIZATION HAS SHOWN A WILLINGNESS TO SPEND MONEY

Yes, this strategy bombed earlier in the decade, as Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro (the ‘04-‘05 version) and other free agents had been brought in, but the losing continued.  But when you look closer, this team has been willing to pay much more than rookie-level salaries to players from outside the organization.  Baltimore traded for Hardy, paying a hefty $5.85 million to a player who hasn’t held a big-league job for 3 years due to performance and health concerns.  Lee and Guerrero were signed for a combined $15.25 million.  Mark Reynolds’ contract skyrockets in value in the coming years.  The Orioles are not allergic to spending money, and Fielder could be a huge difference-maker for a club that absolutely could compete as soon as next year.

Prince won’t come cheap, and here is a list of comparable contracts that have been handed out recently, which you’ll notice is the same group of elite first basemen whose statistics were examined earlier:

	PLAYER CONTRACTS
Player	Years	Value ($Millions)	Current Age
Adrian Gonzalez	7	154	29
Ryan Howard	5	125	31
Mark Teixiera	8	180	28
Prince Fielder	??	??	27

It is fair to assume Prince, the youngest of the group, will command a deal in the 7-year, $154-million range Gonzalez recently received from Boston, especially given that his agent is the notorious Scott Boras.  The O’s entered the bidding for Teixiera, the hometown star, in the 2008 offseason.  Will Baltimore be willing to offer a similar deal to Fielder to compete with their AL East brethren?

THE FRANCHISE WOULD LOVE A PUT-BUTTS-IN-THE-SEATS TYPE OF SIGNING

Attendance at Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been on a downward slide for several years.  Following the Miguel Tejada signing before the 2004 season, attendance improved from roughly 30,000 to 34,000 fans from ’03 to ’04.  Every year since (save once), turnout has declined steadily, ending at a rate of just 21,000 per game in 2010, ranking 24^th out of 30 teams.  I was at a pair of games just last week against my beloved Minnesota Twins; I can personally attest to buying $10 cheap seats and then moving into the close confines of the lower-deck seats between the dish and 3^rd base, without resistance from the ushers.  

The signing of Fielder would reenergize a fanbase that is one of the best in baseball, in a city with a rich baseball tradition that lusts for a winning team.  Remember, this is a franchise that had a grand total of eight losing seasons from the inception of the 162-game schedule in 1961 until 1997, including an above-.500 record every year from 1968 to 1985.  They haven’t had a winning record since.

Look, the fanbase isn’t stupid.  They would see right through a huge splash signing just for the sake of making a huge splash signing.  But Fielder fits a grave need on the diamond for the O’s, not to mention what he would do for fan excitement (and the box office).

THE ORIOLES ARE THE BEST FIT FOR PRINCE WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER COMPETITORS

Baltimore is (presumably, don't ever rule it out) in the nice position of not having to compete with either the Yankees or Red Sox for Fielder.  Looking at the other competitors in the running for Fielder, it appears the Orioles are in the best position to land him, as each of the other teams has varying reasons as to suggest Fielder may not go there:

CUBS

This will be their strongest competition.  GM Jim Hendry’s job status has been in question for a number of years now, and he could be looking to make a statement move.  They have no obvious long-term fit at the position, having traded Derrek Lee last year and signed Carlos Pena to a 1-year deal for 2011, and I believe they’re a darkhorse contender to rob Albert Pujols from their hated rivals to the south, St. Louis.  Should they miss out on Pujols, Fielder is a likely consolation prize.  But will new owner Tom Ricketts be willing to spend that kind of money, considering that previous ownership allowed huge contracts to oft-injured 3B Aramis Ramirez and underperforming LF Alfonso Soriano?  We’ll see.

ANGELS

Their interest in Fielder depends entirely on how they perceive 1B Kendrys Morales’ health going forward.  Owner Arte Moreno also has shown no fear in doling out money to put a winning club on the field (OFs Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, anyone?), and should Morales not return to full-health, Los Angeles should put in a pretty strong bid for Fielder.  But they lost out on LF Carl Crawford in the offseason to Boston; will they be willing to go the extra mile for another free agent this time around?

MARINERS

Another team without any semblance of a long-term plan at first base, but how serious would they be about entering the Prince sweepstakes?  This team is far and away the furthest away from contending for the postseason, so why surrender so much of its resources to a single player when they still have so many other areas to improve before they have a chance to contend?  Still, this organization has spent money in the past (namely on RF Ichiro and 3B Adrian Beltre in recent years), and they are still in the discussion for Fielder.

MILWAUKEE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD HIM IN THE OFFSEASON

And so this story comes full circle, as we return to the present state of the Brewers.  It stands to reason that the Braun signing simply was to engender goodwill with the fanbase, similar to what the Minnesota Twins did with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer in the 2008 offseason as they knew a Johan Santana trade was inevitable.  The Brewers reside in baseball’s middle class as far as overall player payroll is concerned, sitting at roughly $85.5 million committed for the 2011 season.  Factoring in a $23-million-per-year extension for Fielder onto the new Braun deal, and Milwaukee will have approximately 40% to 50% of their payroll committed to 2 position players, assuming Milwaukee’s payroll increases to the $90-$100 million range, by the 2016 season.  The hunch here is that the Brew Crew will be reluctant to hand out such an agreement to their stud first baseman, and instead invest those funds in rebuilding their barren far system, decimated by their recent trades for Sabathia and Zack Greinke.

What It All Means

The MacPhail-led Baltimore Orioles have taken on a new persona in recent years, as owner Peter Angelos has given his GM a little room as far as setting the direction of the club (but only a little).  Under MacPhail’s leadership, the franchise has transformed its philosophy, shifting away from the fantasy baseball aspect of signing high-priced free agents to a scouting and development perspective that has produced several solid players and prospects through both the Rule 4 draft and trades.

But the Orioles are not Tampa Bay, and they are not Cleveland or Oakland.  This team inhabits a fan-crazed city with great tradition, and is not without vast resources, both from its market and its owner.  A winning product on the field will surely translate to box office success (Baltimore averaged more than 40,000 fans per night in each of Camden Yards’ first nine years in existence).

I believe Baltimore to be more like the Angels, a franchise that complements its strong minor league talent base with free agents that allow it to compete for World Series titles.  Prince Fielder would be exactly the type of free agent that would put the Orioles on the map as a serious contender to get out of the rut of the AL East basement and really challenges the traditional beasts of the East.  The only question now is whether the Baltimore front office has the stones to make this type of addition. 

Your move, Mr. MacPhail.