2011 MLB MVP Candidates and Predictions

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

As we’re set to embark on another MLB season, it’s time to take an early gander at the MVP candidates for 2011.

But first, I’d first like to explain how I came to the determinations of the candidates using the criteria I used.

First of all, a distinction must be made between “Most Valuable” and “Best”.  Just because a player might be the best player in his league, doesn’t mean he deserves to win the Most Valuable Player award.  I believe Albert Pujols is the undisputed best player in Major League Baseball today, but he didn’t win the MVP in 2010.  And this was justified; Joey Votto, despite putting up a statistically-similar season to Pujols, meant more to his team.  And it also helps that Votto’s Reds topped Pujols’ Cardinals in the NL Central standings last year, too.

And therein lies the rub: how do you balance statistic production versus overall value to team?  And how much does winning matter when it comes to the MVP award?  These are difficult questions to answer quantifiably, and surely involve some level of subjection on the part of the individual evaluating each player.

For me, playing for a winning team is a critical factor, but is not the be-all end-all.  The question that must be asked is this: if Player X is taken off his team and replaced with an average (replacement-level) player, how much of a negative impact does that have on his team?  This is the question of overall value to team, and in my opinion, the most important factor when judging MVPs.

This is not to say statistical production shouldn’t be taken into account.  But two key factors have to be in play for a player from a non-winning team to win the MVP: 1) the player’s statistics must be so astronomically superior to anyone else, and 2) the crop of winning-team candidates must be weak enough that accepting a player from a losing team for the award isn’t egregious.

Looking back at the last 10 years of the AL MVP, the voting awarded the player who had the most value to a playoff team – with one notable exception.  Alex Rodriguez was the 2003 MVP for the Rangers, despite Texas finishing 71-91 and in last place in the AL West.  This was understandable, since no clear-cut candidate from a winning team had numbers remotely approaching Rodriguez’ (Jorge Posada was the closest for a 101-win Yankees club).  This award also may have been recognition from the previous year, where Rodriguez hit a crazy 57 homers and drove in 142 runs with an OPS of 1.015.  Rodriguez numbers “dipped” to 47 homers, 118 RBI and .995 OPS (narrowly defeating Carlos Delgado’s line of 42/145/1.019), but won the MVP anyway.  This is where the previous paragraph comes into play.

This, however, is the exception to the rule.  While stats are important, the player who has the biggest impact on his [winning] team, who would end the team’s hopes of a title if he is removed from the team and replaced with a mediocre/average player; that is the most vital component of the MVP vote, in my eyes.

So now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to it:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

It’s Albert Pujols’ world, and everyone else is just living in it.  Allow me to explain…

The favorite: Albert Pujols, Cardinals

If the Cards want him past 2011, they best pay up.

Pujols’ numbers over the first 10 years of his career are downright legendary.  If he’s not already the best right-handed hitter of his generation (Manny Ramirez may have an argument right now), he’s awfully close.  He’s won 3 MVPs and finished in the top 3 five other times, has a career OPS of 1.050, and has combined for 89 home runs and 253 RBI over just his last 2 seasons.  Despite going into the season at age 31, there is little reason to expect a drop off.  Plus he has extra motivation, which brings me to my next point…

 

My favorite writer, Bill Simmons, has this saying that I use quite a bit called “Eff-You Mode”.  Basically, when someone goes into this mode, they develop a me- or us-against-the-world mindset, derived from a perceived slight from a person or group of people, which often times can increase their productivity (aka the proverbial "middle finger" at their aggressor) for a certain period of time .  In the case of Pujols, you may have heard something about the rift between his camp and the Cardinals front office regarding the contract extension that didn’t get done.  And by all accounts, Pujols is not pleased.  And you know who will take the brunt of that punishment now?  The rest of the NL.  Barring significant injury, I would be greatly surprised if the best player of this generation doesn’t win the award, especially if the Cards contend despite losing Adam Wainwright for the season to Tommy John surgery.

The defending champ: Joey Votto, Reds 1B

Back to defend his crown.

Why not again?  This guy can carry the Reds’ offense, and with a still-young starting staff, the Reds are easily the NL Central favorites heading into 2011.  If he repeats his excellent stats from 2010 (.324 BA, .424 OBP, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 16 SBs, a crazy 1.024 OPS), he will certainly be in the discussion.  Oh, and a brand-new extension (3 years, $38 million through 2013) doesn’t hurt either.

The darkhorse: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies OF

Along with Tulo, a nightmare for NL West pitching for the next 7 years.

Perhaps not as well-known as his All-Star teammate SS Troy Tulowitzki, but he should be.  Despite not being named to the All-Star team last year, Gonzalez still finished 3^rd in the MVP voting, and cashed in with a 7-year, $80 million extension in the offseason that will keep him wearing Rockies’ purple and black until 2017.  After bouncing back and forth from the minors with Oakland in 2008 and with Colorado in ’09, CarGo stopped having to pack his cargo in 2010, delivering a stellar stat-line of .336 BA, 34 HRs, 117 RBI, .598 slugging, .974 OPS, league-leading 351 total bases, and even delivered 26 stolen bases in 34 tries.  Gonzalez is a true 5-tool talent (he won the 2010 Gold Glove too) with outstanding versatility in the outfield (51 starts in LF, 55 in CF, 34 in RF), and batting in front of Tulo will only benefit him and the Rockies in 2011.

Other contenders: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies SS; Hanley Ramirez, Marlins SS;

Super sleepers: Jason Heyward, Braves RF; Buster Posey, Giants C

The pick: Pujols

AMERICAN LEAGUE

This race is much closer to call.  Josh Hamilton won it last year despite missing the final month, and Joe Mauer won it the year before in spite of being absent the entire first month of the 2009 season.  Unlike in the NL, the AL does not feature a clear-cut favorite for 2011 MVP.  Here the cases for the players I’ve selected that merit consideration:

The defending champ: Josh Hamilton, Rangers CF

It's literally impossible not to like and root for this guy (except against your own team, of course).

Hamilton is obviously much better than simply a feel-good story.  He was deserving of the MVP in 2010, putting up a dominant stat line of 32 homers, 100 RBI, .359 BA, .633 slugging, and 1.044 OPS, despite playing only 5 months of the season.  He’s the heart and soul of the Rangers; without him, they’re a shell of themselves.  Injuries ravaged Hamilton’s 2009 season and are a constant concern with him, given how much his body was polluted during his time out of the league.  But this guy has as much natural talent as anyone that has come into the league in a generation, and with good health, he’ll be in the discussion once again for MVP.

The contender: Robinson Cano, Yankees 2B

I may despise the Yankees, but it's hard to like (or at least respect) Robby.

Seems like a surprising call, no?  Actually, it’s not that far of a stretch.  Cano made “the Leap” in 2010, with his OPS jumping from .871 to .914, while setting career highs in home runs (29) and RBI (109).  His patience also improved (a career-best 57 walks).  And even more impressively, and certainly the stat most valuable to Yankee fans: Cano has missed a TOTAL of eight games over his last four seasons.  Between his excellent durability, clutch and sustained production at the plate, and stellar defense at a position that requires it (he won the 2010 Gold Glove at second base, and deservedly so), it is not difficult to see why, at age 28, Cano is a qualified AL MVP candidate in 2011.

The darkhorse: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 1B

Get yourself straightened out, Miggy. Seriously.

I know, I know, he’s not off the greatest of starts.  But he’s probably the most-feared hitter in the American League right now, and he’s capable of carrying the Tigers’ offense for long stretches.  Still, it’s hard to see it with this guy, given his recent troubling off-field transgressions, especially because it seems the Tigers (in particular, Jim Leyland) seem to be more concerned with getting him out on the field and producing than acknowledging that their All-Star first baseman may need some time away from the team to deal with his alcoholism.  Fortunately, he is following a plan developed by Commissioner Selig’s office and the MLBPA.  Here’s hoping this guy gets the help he needs; I may be a Twins fan, but I’m definitely pulling for this guy to get his life together and back to his level of production from last year.  He’s a huge part of that organization, and the city of Detroit; they need him.

The darkest of darkhorses: Felix Hernandez, Mariners RHP

With a little help, the King has a shot to add some new hardware to his mantle.

Don’t laugh.  I’m well aware that a pitcher hasn’t won an MVP award in either league since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.  But did you see the number this guy put up last year?! Best in the league in ERA, innings, starts, hits per 9 innings, and Wins Above Replacement among pitchers, and 2^nd in strikeouts (by one).  This defending Cy Young only won 13 games last year; imagine how good he’d be if he’s supported by something better than a historically-bad Mariners offense.  If this offense is improved at all, Felix gets help from the rest of the staff, and the Mariners are surprise contenders in the AL West (remember, the M’s finished with 85 wins in 2009), don’t forget about the King for MVP.  Or, worse case, he’ll repeat as the Cy.  There are worse consolation prizes than that.

Other contenders: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 3B; Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox 1B; Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 3B; Evan Longoria, Rays 3B

Super sleeper: Paul Konerko, White Sox 1B

The pick: Cano

Final thought: So you’ve probably noticed I have no Philadelphia Phillies in this column.  No Phillies in a column about the 2011 MVP?  This team is the prohibitive favorite to finish with the best record in the National League and be their league’s representative in the World Series!  In the immortal words of Jules from Pulp Fiction, well, allow me to retort.

First of all, I agree that the Phillies are the best team in the NL, at least on paper.  If the pitching staff pitches the way they are capable (and get adequate production from an aging and suddenly injured lineup), the Fightin’s are capable of winning over 100 games. 

However, it is the balance of the team that makes singling out a single player for the MVP discussion difficult.  No NL pitcher has won the MVP since Bob Gibson in 1968, so despite the excellence and proficiency of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt, it is highly unlikely any of them will be so substantially better than one another (or match the dominance of Gibson) to warrant such a mention.  Ryan Howard probably deserves an acknowledgment, but his stats plummeted from 2009 to last year.  He may be given a chance, however, given the recent hand surgery on Domonic Brown and chronic knee pain of Chase Utley.

Final final thought: I just finished an outstanding column about the deviation among umpire strike zones.  Check it out if you have time; it’s definitely something to pay attention to this season and beyond.