Minnesota Twins Week 11: The Turnaround

This is the 7^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Record: 26-39

• The turnaround

It's about time these two man the middle infield again. Except this time, they're switching spots.

Going into play on June 2, the Twins held pathetic 17-37 record, 16.5 games out of 1^st place in the AL Central division, 12 games out in the wild card race, and an astounding 7.5 games behind the next worst team in the American League.  The team was so dreadful that the Star Tribune put together a 4-part series

that detailed just how dreadful the team was.

Coincidentally, the damning piece triggered a sudden run of success, as the Twins went to Kansas City and swept all 4 games, nearly won all 3 in Cleveland (settled for 2), and blew away the defending AL champion Texas Rangers in 3 of 4 games.  The team has turned around so dramatically that even Jim Souhan believes the Twins have a chance (and trust me, that’s saying something).  How have they done it?  I’m really not quite sure.  And that brings me to my next point…

• This many injuries just isn’t fair

Just one of many afflictions to befall the Twins this season.

This Star Tribune column detailed all the injury updates to the Twins’ injured players, but the player Twins fans have been clamoring for all season is finally within about a week of returning.  Former AL MVP Joe Mauer appears to be less than a week away from returning, and not a moment too soon.  The gap from Mauer to backups Rene Rivera (.193 BA, .590 OPS this season) and Drew Butera (.174 BA, .468 OPS) is arguably the biggest in the entire league, and has played a huge role in the Twins’ struggles this season.  I know it doesn’t seem that way, given Mauer’s weak performance from earlier in the year (9 games, .235 BA, .554 OPS, 1 extra-base hit).  But wasn’t it obvious that it was hurt?  Assuming good health (always a tough assumption with Mauer) and a pro-rated year (100 games) of production somewhere between Mauer’s 2009 MVP campaign (138 games, .365 BA, 1.031 OPS, 28 HRs, 96 RBI, 191 hits, 30 doubles) and pedestrian first year at Target Field (137 games, .327 BA, .871 OPS, 9 HRs, 75 RBI, 167 hits, 43 doubles) and a little more weight towards the 2010 season (2/3 vs. 1/3), his estimated line of production is this: 85 games (since I’m assuming he’ll be given plenty of rest), .338 BA, .924 OPS, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 108 hits, 23 doubles.   Not bad for half a season, right?  And it’s certainly much better than the murderer’s row combo of Rivera and Butera would provide.

It’s not only Mauer who is due to return, but a whole host of players with good prognoses for their returns (with the possible exception of Joe Nathan, who probably still is several weeks away as he recovers from elbow soreness and searches for the command that made him so devastating at his peak).  The Twins are missing an astounding five opening-day starters (Denard Span, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel) as well as a 593-home run man Jim Thome.  It’s about time some or all of these guys return so the team is actually close to whole again, and so that they can more properly resemble the 94-win team of 2010 and more ably defend their AL Central title.

How this team is winning games is incredible.  Did you see the team Ron Gardenhire was running out there during the club’s latter 2 wins over Texas?  The team’s #5 hitters for those two games were Rene Tosoni and Luke Hughes!  Unbelievable.  Minnesota was running replacement-level players onto the field in their 5-9 spots in the batting order!  Among that group, only Danny Valencia is a player that should be playing every day, and he’s been mired in a season-long slump, batting just .218/.282/.329 (although his power production isn’t far off last year’s pace, as his 5 homers and 27 RBI through 64 games compare favorably to last year’s 7 homers and 40 RBI over 85 games in which he finished 3^rd in AL Rookie of the Year balloting).

Somehow, the Twins have gotten a hot streak, and it should look no farther than its jitterbug Dominican middle infielder for one explanation why…

• The curious case of Alexi Casilla

Keep that head on straight, son.

SS/2B Alexi Casilla has had a very peculiar career arc to say the least.  Acquired in a non-descript trade in December of 2005 for lefty reliever J.C. Romero, Casilla had a breakout 2008 campaign, becoming the everyday 2^nd baseman and wielding a reliable bat in the #2 spot in the order (.281/.333/.374, 7 HRs, 50 RBI, 15 doubles, 108 hits in 98 games).

But somewhere along the way, Casilla’s mind wandered.  He has always been terribly inconsistent in the field, showing flashes of brilliance while also blowing much easier plays.  Even common-sense plays second basemen always make, such as covering the bag on a ground ball, escaped the immature Casilla.  Gaffes such as these don’t always make it in the box score, but when the second baseman is late covering the bag on a double play attempt, runners are often safe at first, giving the opponent extra outs and scoring opportunities, while taxing the pitching staff.  These mental mistakes plagued Casilla for much of the last two seasons, as he played just 149 games total over the 2009 and 2010 seasons.  Still, in a cost-cutting move and to increase the team’s speed, the Twins traded SS J.J. Hardy (earning $5.85 million in 2011) to Baltimore in the offseason, while signing Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play 2^nd base and installing Casilla (making just $875,000 this season) as the everyday shortstop.

The move flopped initially, with neither player hitting, Casilla’s mental blunders mounting at shortstop, and Nishioka’s unfortunate sustaining of a broken leg in an April 7 game at New York.  Casilla slumped to a meager .175/.230/.250 hitting line with just 14 hits, 2 doubles, 3 RBI, and 5 walks in 88 plate appearances over 28 games.

And then the light switch flipped on.

Beginning with the May 15^th loss vs. Toronto, Casilla has gone on a hitting tear.  In 27 games, Casilla has compiled 32 hits, 7 of them of the extra-base variety (6 doubles, 1 triple), 9 RBI and 10 walks while hitting .337/.402/.421.  He’s nearly doubled his production across the board of the same time frame, and has become the everyday #2 hitter.  With Nishioka due back this week, it is expected that Casilla return to his more natural second base position on a full-time basis, while Nishi becomes the everyday shortstop, at which he played the majority of his career in Japan.

But Casilla’s turnaround hasn’t been the only buoy the Twins have relied upon during the win streak…

• Ben Revere’s ride

Keep this kid in the lineup, skip.

So what has a direct correlation with the Twins 9-2 outburst of success?  That would be the June 2 call to the majors given to OF Ben Revere, the 5-foot-9-inch mighty mite who won not one but TWO minor league player of the year awards in the Twins organization.  Just as I prophesized in an earlier column, Revere has been the breath of fresh air the big-league club has needed, infusing electric speed and an affable smile to the field and in the clubhouse.  Splitting time at all 3 outfield positions while Span is on the shelf with concussion symptoms, Revere has started all 11 games since his call-up, putting together a .292./.333/.313 hitting line with 14 hits while driving in 4 runs, scoring 9 more, taking 3 walks, stealing 3 bases, and striking out just 6 times.  He has been a tremendous spark at the top of the lineup (9 consecutive leadoff starts, and counting), and has likely caused an internal debate about his long-term future with the organization against that of Span.  If anything, Revere has forced his way onto the big-league club for sure, as he surely fits the team’s request for more speed that was instituted in the offseason.  Even if he returns to part-time duty and an occasional outfield start while hitting at the bottom of the order, he has played an instrumental role in the Twins’ resurgence, and should play a part of any run this team hopes to have over the 2011 seasons’ final 100 games.

• Justin Morneau’s injury curse

Stay healthy, big fella. We need ya.

Alas, one would be remiss to not speak of rugged yet wounded Canadian 1B Justin Morneau, who simply cannot avoid an injury if his life depended on it.  Interestingly, the concussion he sustained last July that prevent him from playing the entire 2^nd half of the 2010 season has been pushed the background, yet a myriad of maladies continues to afflict him (pinched nerve in neck resulting in shoulder weakness, a sore right wrist that kept him out of the last 3 games, etc.).  Unfortunately, Twins fans, these injuries will only go away with rest, and Morneau is as stubborn as they come when it comes to the rest vs. playing debate.  Morneau knows how much his team needs him to compete, and it eats away at him every time he has to sit a game.  He is likely to return to the lineup Tuesday against Chicago, since the wrist injury proved not to be serious enough for him to be placed on the Disabled List.  But Morneau is hitting just .225/.281/.338 this season with 4 homers, 12 doubles, and 21 RBI in 55 games; is this the Morneau we’ll get the rest of the season?

• Looking ahead

Before interleague play hits full force, our old friend A.J. takes his talents to Target Field.

After playing an astonishing 40 of their first 61 games of the 2011 season away from Target Field (a cruel twist of fate given the team’s underperformance and ravaging by injuries), Minnesota is in the midst of a 10-game homestand that leads into interleague, which the Twins have dominated since its inception in 1997 (a 140-106 record, good for a .569 winning percentage that ranks 2^nd in all of MLB).   After a 3-game set with the rival White Sox, Minnesota plays 15 consecutive games against the National League (3 home vs. San Diego, 6 away at San Francisco and Milwaukee, 6 home vs. Los Angeles and Milwaukee).  In 2006, the Twins used Interleague play as a springboard toward a 71-33 record over the final 2/3 of the season that saw the team overcome an 11-game deficit and steal the AL Central division from Detroit on the season’s final day.  In 2011, the Twins were 16.5 games behind division-leading Cleveland; on June 14, they sit just 9.5 back.  This team, this organization, simply has too much pride to go away quietly.  And with a heavily-stacked home schedule in front of them, a heavy AL-East slate behind them, and the knowledge that 6 regulars will be back on the roster in the coming weeks, there is hope for Minnesota in 2011.  Maybe not a lot of hope, but a little hope nonetheless.

And in baseball, anything can happen.