It's that time of year again: MLB SEASON PREDICTIONS

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

You'll see a little bit of everything is column.  A little chalk, a little boldness.  A little homerism, a lot of objectivity. Here are my predictions sure to go wrong in 2011:

AL EAST

Y - Red Sox 98-64

X - Yankees 92-70

Rays 87-75

Blue Jays 82-80

Orioles 74-88

Rock Sawx Red Sox

• Sorry O’s fans, but I’m not buying into the local hype machine.  This team is definitely better than last year’s version, and the end of season momentum (a 34-23 finish under new manager Buck Showalter following a pitiful 32-73 start), but it is not going to reflect in the standings.  Derrek Lee and Vlad Guerrero are gambles to stay healthy, Mark Reynolds will provide a whole lot of strikeouts to go along with a whole lot of power, and while the pitching will continue to improve, this team is still a couple of years away from contending.  And besides, have you seen the rest of the division?!
• All the Red Sox did was add the 2010-11 offseason’s best free agent position player (LF Carl Crawford) while acquiring another elite talent via trade (1B Adrian Gonzalez).  Buoyed by the healthy return of 3B Kevin Youkilis, the Sawx will be able to beat you with power or on the basepaths with Crawford, CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and do-it-all 2B Dustin Pedroia.
• Organizationally, the Red Sox under GM Theo Epstein are at the forefront of the new age of sabermetric analysis, and that includes defensive metrics (the idea of Run Prevention).  After failing to implement this strategy properly last year (37-year-old Mike Cameron doesn’t equal 27-year-old Mike Cameron), the Sawx got it right this year.  Runs will be at a premium against this team; Crawford and Gonzalez have 3 Gold Gloves between them.   Expect bounce-back years from Josh Beckett and John Lackey to fortify an already outstanding rotation.
• Speaking of organizational strategy, the Rays had a book written about their rise to prominence over the last 3 seasons (which I can’t wait to read), and don’t believe for one second that just because Crawford no longer mans left field that this team all of a sudden has reverted back to its Devil Ray days.  Jeremy Hellickson enters the year as the Rookie of the Year favorite and should step in seamlessly for the departed Matt Garza, and the offense and new-look bullpen are absolutely good enough for the Rays to win 90 games and contend for a Wild Card spot at worst.
• But alas, the big bad Bombers from the Bronx haven’t exactly gotten worse, and should be right back in the postseason in 2011.  3B Alex Rodriguez looked downright spry during spring training, dropping 10 pounds during the offseason and not seeming to show any signs of the lack of mobility from the hip injury that affected him much of last season.  The offense will be its usual potent self (2B Robinson Cano is my MVP Pick), the rotation will be solid if unspectacular, and the addition of RHP Rafael Soriano solidifies the 8^th inning role in front of ageless wonder CP Mariano Rivera.
• As for our neighbors to the north, the Jays quietly continue to progress into AL East contenders.  Brett Lawrie, who came over in the Shawn Marcum trade, has a chance to be the Rookie of the Year given playing time (and a set position), and the underrated starting staff (including former Maryland Terrapin Brett Cecil) will keep the Jays in a lot of a games.  Oh, and they haven’t lost any of that power either (a league-best 257 home runs in 2010, 46 better than the next closest).  The Jays still don’t have the horses to get past the big boys of the division… but they’re getting there.  Stay tuned.

AL CENTRAL

Y - Twins 90-72

White Sox 87-75

Tigers 83-79

Royals 64-98

Indians 61-101

The man who will give Twins fans nightmares in the late innings of games this season.

• I’ve been hearing a familiar tune from some sportswriters again this year: THIS IS THE YEAR the Twins are toppled as division champs, this time by the Adam-Dunn-led White Sox.  All I have to say is: can we get some RESPEK?!  Call me a homer, but I don’t care: I have my beloved Minnesota Boys of Summer moving on to play in October once again this year, as the Twins’ dominance of intradivisional play shall continue (136-82 against the Central combined the last 3 years for a winning percentage of .624).  The rotation returns Carl Pavano to anchor a deep rotation that has forced former starters Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins to the bullpen, and Jim Thome was re-signed to provide power at the DH spot and off the bench.  The status of Justin Morneau as he returns from last season’s concussion, coupled with the re-made bullpen and new-look infield, remain questions as Opening Day approaches, but no team is without question marks.  I choose to believe in optimism, as do my fellow Twins fan-brethren, and I foresee October baseball returning to Twins territory in 2011.
• That said, the White Sox are undeniably a stronger team, at least at the outset of the 2011 season.  The addition of Adam Dunn adds muscle to an already-potent lineup, and should form a nice middle-of-the-order 1-2 punch with Paul Konerko, who is coming off a career year and is armed with a new lucrative contract.  The ill-fated trade for Jake Peavy continues to loom large for Chicago, however, as they bet 4 prospects that Peavy would get them over the top and into the World Series.  But the oft-injured right-hand ace continues to remain sidelined following last season’s freak injury in which his right latissimus dorsi tendon had completely torn off the bone (and injury never before suffered by a major leaguer).  Peavy has been limited to just 33 starts the last 2 seasons, and is set to miss at least the first month of 2011 as well.  His health could be the difference in determining the AL Central winner.
• The Tigers are betting on Phil Coke and Brad Penny to round out an otherwise solid rotation, and healthy seasons from position players like Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez.  I don’t see it.  Justin Verlander will be a Cy Young contender, however.
• The Royals have hope on the horizon with some of the game’s best young prospects set to arrive within the next 2 seasons.  But 2011 looks very bleak, especially without Zack Greinke.  Your opening day starter for Kansas City: Luke Hochevar.  Yikes.
• And Cleveland… yikes.  Keep an eye on C Carlos Santana however, who is coming off major knee surgery.  This kid can really rake, and could easily already be the best player on the Indians roster (especially given the health question marks of CF Grady Sizemore).

AL WEST

Y - A’s 87-75

Rangers 86-76

Angels 76-86

Mariners 63-99

These kids are alright.

• The A’s?!?! Oh yes, that’s not a misprint.  I love the A’s rotation of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden, who will give Oakland a chance to win any game.  Scoring runs will still be difficult, but the additions of Hideki Matsui , Josh Willingham, and David DeJesus provide a nice infusion of offense, and the bullpen will continue to be its stellar self (and now includes Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes).  The injury to 2010 Rookie of the Year close Andrew Bailey is a concern, but should he return to health, I like the A’s to make their first postseason since 2006.
• It will be a close race, however, as the Rangers seek to defend their 2010 AL pennant.  The Rangers added 3B Adrian Beltre to an already explosive lineup, and still have plenty of relievers that fire bullets.  But leaving Neftali Feliz as the closer instead of moving him to the rotation is a questionable decision, and the rotation has question marks across the board, especially following the departure of ace Cliff Lee.
• The Angels are paying a lot of money to outfielders now, especially following the ill-conceived trade for middling CF-turned-corner-outfielder Vernon Wells.  1B Kendrys Morales remains sidelined (now with an injury different from the broken leg he suffered last season) as well.  A lot of things have to go right for the Angels to win this division, and though it is not inconceivable, it’s unlikely.
• The only bright spot in Seattle is reigning Cy Young Felix Hernandez, who is my pick to win the award again.  My plea to Seattle: DON’T TRADE THE KING TO THE YANKEES!!!! It’s not as far-fetched as you might think…

NL EAST

Y - Phillies 93-69

X - Braves 90-72

Marlins 86-76

Nationals 72-90

Mets 68-94

You may have heard a little something about this group before.

• The Phillies have quite possibly the best rotation we’ve seen in 20 years, at least on paper.  But games aren't played on paper, and everywhere else, there are concerns.  Closer Brad Lidge is expected to miss 3-6 weeks with a shoulder problem, but that is an injury that could linger.  And All-Star 2B Chase Utley may need surgery on his knee that could prevent him from playing at all in 2011.  In addition, 3B Placido Polanco is also hurt, as is OF Domonic Brown, who wouldn't have made the big club anyway.  I still expect the Phillies to be the class of the NL East, but it’s no guarantee…
• … and that’s because the Atlanta Braves aren’t far behind them, given the Philadelphia injury situation.  RF Jason Heyward looks to build on his 2011 Runner-up ROY campaign, he is joined in the lineup by 2011 Rookie of the Year contender 1B Freddie Freeman, the starting pitching is deep with Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor waiting in the wings should an injury occur (we’re looking at you, Jair Jurrjens) and the bullpen is outstanding in the back end with flame-throwers LHP Jonny Venters and RHP Craig Kimbrel.  The question is whether this is 3B Chipper Jones’ last rodeo, and if C Brian McCann will return to his 2009 form after diminishing returns in 2010.  I like the Braves to win the 2011 Wild Card, just as they did in 2010.
• Lots of young Fish down in Miami… and Josh Johnson.  The Marlins electric right-hander had the lowest ERA in the majors last year (2.30), this wasn't a fluke (his FIP of 2.41 was also the best in the league, and is a better indicator of how good a pitcher was than ERA), and could have won the Cy Young award had he not been injured in September of last season.  No matter: he’ll win it this year.  But alas, that’s all Fish fans will be cheering for, as Florida will fall short in 2011.  Fortunately, they have this to look forward to in 2012.
• The 2010 season of excitement gives way to the 2011 season of transition in the nation’s capital, as Stephen “the Chosen One” Strasburg sits out the entire year as he rehabs following Tommy John surgery.  And don’t expect to see 18-year-old phenom Bryce Harper in the Bigs this year, either.  But the much-ballyhooed addition of RF Jayson Werth keeps the optimism rolling in Washington, and the affectionately-called Natties finish out of the basement in 2011.
• And then we have the Metropolitans, who sit on the opposite end of the optimism spectrum from Washington, as the Mets are forced to deal with the dark cloud of the ownership situation that so harshly and unfortunately resembles that which continues to plague the L.A. Dodgers.  The players may say it won’t affect their every-day business on the field, but it will.  Not that it matters, because the team will stink anyway.  CF Carlos Beltran and SS Jose Reyes are injuries waiting to happen (and may be traded anyway), and ace LHP Johan Santana figures to miss the first half of the season at a minimum.  It’s going to be a bleak summer in Queens.

NL CENTRAL

Y - Reds 91-71

Brewers 89-73

Cardinals 85-77

Cubs 80-82

Astros 76-86

Pirates 60-102

When mustaches attack!

• Speaking of RESPEK?!?!, why do so few believe the Reds will repeat?  1B Joey Votto returns from an MVP 2010 season, RF Jay Bruce and CF Drew Stubbs look to build on breakout 2010 campaigns, the rotation remains solid and deep, and still doesn’t include flame-throwing lefty Aroldis Chapman, who eventually figures to step into the rotation.  Give me the Red Machine in 2011 to not only repeat as NL Central champs, but to be the National League representative in the World Series.   Yup, you heard me.
• I’m not as concerned about the Brewers injuries (aka Greinke) as others.  The Brewers desperately needed to add pitching, and accomplished it by adding Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to form a strong top-3 with holdover Yovani Gallardo.  That rotation, to go with a strong lineup anchored by 1B Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun and a bullpen led by underrated 2^nd-year closer John Axford (with a mustache that would make Rollie Fingers jealous) make the Brewers a dangerous team heading into 2011.  All the cards are on the table for the Brew Crew; it’s now or never (Fielder is set to be a free agent following the season).
• The loss of stud RHP Adam Wainwright dooms the Cards’ chances at contending in an improved NL Central.   Let’s just say I’m just not a believer in converted reliever Kyle McClellan.  Despite Pujols’ MVP year, the Cards finish in 3^rd.
• The Cubs will be better, through the additions of Garza and 1B Carlos Pena and the addition-by-subtraction of malcontent Carlos Silva.  And this team could contend if they get huge seasons (and great health) from 3B Aramis Ramirez and LF Alfonso Soriano.  Big Ifs.
• Steve Berthiaume of ESPN's Baseball Tonight has the Astros winning the NL Central.  And he’s the only one.  And rightfully so.
• And the Pirates make it 19 straight losing seasons and counting.  Death, taxes, the Pirates stink.

NL WEST

Y - Giants 92-70

Rockies 89-73

Dodgers 84-78

Padres 76-86

Diamondbacks 69-93

Don't sleep on these Defenders of the Mile High.

• The Giants make it back-to-back NL West crowns, though it is not made easy by the competition.  The defending champion rotation’s top 4 of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and World Series hero Madison Bumgarner seek to prove they rival the quartet of Philadelphia (some believe they already do), and the outstanding bullpen led by RHP’s Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo looks to continue its dominance.  The lineup still leaves something to be desired, but with defending ROY C Buster Posey back for his sophomore season and stud 1B Brandon Belt waiting in the wings, the Gigantes are a force to be reckoned with in 2011.
• The Rockies are my 2011 darkhorse.  Plenty of question marks remain in the rotation, but the new contracts given to SS Troy Tulowitzki and CF Carlos Gonzalez are reasons for optimism in Denver.  Though declining, 1B Todd Helton can still hit, and the underrated addition of 3B Ty Wigginton provides key insurance for solid lefty swinger Ian Stewart.  Good health for closer Huston Street would go a long way to ensure the Rox stay in contention in 2011.
• The McCourt divorce still lingers over Dodgerland, as the ownership situation remains unsettled.  The quagmire clearly affected the team’s play on the field, as no impact addition (aside from Ted Lilly) could be made midseason, and a 95-win NL West champion Dodger team from 2009 declined to an 80-win, 4^th-place finish in 2010.  CF Matt Kemp went from franchise cornerstone to washed-up in one season, and RF Andre Ethier and 1B James Loney declined as well.  I expect a bounce-back year from each of these guys, but the team doesn’t improve enough to return to the postseason.
• The feel-good story of 2010, the Padres, will hit the wall of reality hard in 2011.  All-Star 1B Adrian Gonzalez is gone, RHP Mat Latos will start the season on the DL, and closer Heath Bell likely will be traded (and should fetch a bounty of prospects).  The Friars won’t be terrible, as I still have them winning 76 games thanks to a strong young rotation.  But don’t expect a 2^nd-straight year of contention from San Diego.
• And as for the team that hails from the desert, the Diamondbacks are in rebuilding mode, as they are currently breaking in a new front office led by new GM Kevin Towers.  Gone are the leading (Mark Reynolds) and 4^th-leading (Adam LaRoche) strikeout kings of 2010, but a rotation whose opening day starter is Ian Kennedy doesn’t inspire much confidence.  SS Stephen Drew and RF Justin Upton remain building blocks for the Snakes, but there isn’t a whole lot to look forward to in Arizona this season.  I do like RHP Daniel Hudson, acquired from the White Sox last season, to be a nice starting pitching cornerstone for the D-Backs as well.

Postseason predictions

Expect more of this in October.

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Yankees over Twins (sigh)

Red Sox over A’s

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Red Sox over Yankees

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Reds over Phillies

Giants over Braves

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Reds over Giants

WORLD SERIES

Red Sox over Reds

Awards

MVP (for details, check this out)

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees

Cy Young

Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Josh Johnson, Marlins

Rookie of the Year

RHP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays 

1B Brandon Belt, Giants 

Reaction from the NCAA Tournament’s Second Weekend

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

The team with the coach with the most fun name to say: SHAKA SMART!

• Virginia Commonwealth’s incredible run to the Final Four as an 11-seed has been examined ad nauseum by the national pundits, so there is probably not a whole lot that hasn’t already been said. But I’m going to add my own two cents anyway.  The biggest thing that stood out to me was in the first 3 or so minutes in the game, where Kansas was flexing its muscle inside.  PF Marcus Morris was being fronted in the post by the VCU defense, without back side help.  As a result, the adept passing of the KU guards got the ball inside to Morris at will, and he scored the first 6 points of the game on 2 free throws and 2 easy lay-ups for an early 6-0 Kansas lead.  At this point I’m thinking, well VCU, it’s been a great ride so far, but you simply don’t have the ammunition to stay with this vastly-superior Kansas team.  And I obviously could not have been more wrong.  Following a timeout, the Rams immediately made the adjustment, switching to a zone defense, and shading an extra defender behind Morris to give the KU guards something to think about before making that pass.  And it worked to perfection.

• The other great strength of VCU is their unflappable confidence in themselves and their teammates.  Despite the 6-0 deficit, they just didn’t get rattled by the pressure of the moment, and this also was evident as the Jayhawks mounted their comeback.  After trailing 39-21 with 4 minutes to play in the 2^nd half, Kansas got all the way back to within 46-44 following a Tyshawn Taylor theft, layup and free throw (caused by VCU PG Joey Rodriguez’s 3^rd personal foul in less than a minute).  But VCU was undaunted, as the MVP of the game, Jamie Skeen, was fouled and made 2 free throws.  Less than 2 minutes later, Skeen drained a 3, and VCU’s lead was extended right back to 9.  Skeen put up an awesome line of 26 points and 10 rebounds, including 4/7 from 3 and 10/12 from the 3-point line.

• The 3-point shot is the great equalizer in March Madness, and that weapon has carried VCU throughout the tournament.  The Rams shot 12/25 (48%) from behind the line, and have shot a combined 53/121 (43.8%) for the tournament after shooting 36% from 3 during the regular season.  However, it can also be the greatest detriment to a team that relies on the shot to win, which Kansas tried to do once VCU made the adjustment defensively against the Morris twins.  Kansas went into the game believing it had a tremendous advantage inside with the Morris brothers, but were thoroughly bottled up by the impressive interior defense of Juvonte Reddic, Toby Veal, and Skeen.  KU normally could compensate with strong 3-point shooting from their guards, but G’s Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar shot a combined 2/16 from the field, including 1/10 from 3.  For the game, KU shot an astounding 2/21 from beyond the arc.  VCU needed a cold shooting night from KU’s guards, and they got it.  And now they’re moving on to Houston with a shot to play for the national championship.

To quote the immortal Gus Johnson: "THE SLIPPER STILL FITS!!"

• The Butler Bulldogs, are you KIDDING me?! This team lost 5 games in the HORIZON league for crying out loud, and didn’t seem interested in playing a whole lot of defense as recently as February.  They probably needed to win the Horizon league tournament just to get into the Dance.  And of course, they’re back in the Final Four, on the strength of 4 wins by a combined 13 points.   PG Ronald Nored has been the key, finally returning health and playing excellent perimeter defense against some of the best guards in the country (Ashton Gibbs, Jordan Taylor, Erving Walker).  And F’s Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard have continued to impress, with Howard providing not only impressive post defense but stellar scoring and rebounding as well (a 20 and 12 night against Wisconsin), and Mack delivering ice-in-his-veins shooting (back-to-back go-ahead 3’s in the final minutes against Florida) and displaying the toughness and leadership that have been the driving force behind this team’s consecutive Final Four runs.  They face a tough matchup with VCU in the national semifinal, but with the strong perimeter defense they’ve displayed thus far in the tournament (they held Wisconsin to a season 2^nd-worst 30.4% FG in their regional semi win), it stands to reason Butler could be playing for a national championship on Monday night.

As Bill Raftery likes to say, this kid has "ONIONS!!"

• I’m starting to like Kentucky PG Brandon Knight more and more.  The freshman shook off a terrible shooting performance in the first 39 minutes and 58 seconds in the 1^st round against Princeton, pulling off a gutsy driving go-ahead layup to carry his Wildcats into Round 2 (I refuse to call it round 3).  Did the kid bounce back from the 1/8 effort in their next game against West Virginia?  Well, does 30 points, including 9/10 from the free throw line (6/6 in the final 2 minutes) answer that question?  Knight poured in another 22 in the regional final win over UNC.  His Saturday national semifinal matchup with all-world UConn PG Kemba Walker will likely determine who plays on Monday night for the national title.  It’ll sure be a fun matchup to watch.

Connecticut isn't only the Fightin Kembas.

• Kemba Walker gets the majority of the pub for Connecticut, and rightfully so.  The kid only averaged 23.5 points (4^th in the nation), 4.5 assists and nearly 2 steals per night, and will undoubtedly win this tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award should UConn take the title in Houston.  But the kid I really like is Jeremy Lamb, Walker’s running partner on the wing.  The lanky 6-5, 185-pound freshman has a silky smooth game and an excellent jump shot (48.3 FG%, 37.2 3FG% this season).  He has great length and athleticism, to go with a knack for rising to the occasion the light shines brightest (not unlike Mr. Walker).  Lamb’s dagger 3-pointer  gave the Huskies a 4-point lead with 1:39 to go, and Lamb would cap his 24-point night with 2 emphatic slams to punctuate the regional semi final win for Connecticut.  Lamb made 9 of his 11 attempts from the field, including all 3 3’s.  Walker may seem like a one-man wrecking crew.  But Kemba is not the sole man responsible for UConn’s run to the Final Four.

Just call him the Destroyer of Duke.

• Even though they lost to Connecticut in the West regional final, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention just how electric Arizona PF Derrick Williams had been in this entire NCAA tournament.  He truly has been a man among boys, averaging 23 points and 9 rebounds, including dumping a 32 and 13 on defending champion Duke in their 93-77 romp in the regional semifinal in Anaheim.  This kid has an absolutely relentless motor, getting after it on the glass, and putting his athleticism to work, in particular against the woefully-outmatched Duke front line.  He not only is capable of throwing down some hellacious dunks (including a tip-slam against Duke and an astounding dunk against a UConn double-team), but he shot 56.8% for the SEASON from behind the 3-point line (including 5/6 against Duke)!  Williams has undoubtedly improved his potential NBA Draft stock the most among any player in this tournament, and put himself in the conversation for the number 1 overall pick along with Duke PG Kyrie Irving and UNC F Harrison Barnes.  An absolutely awesome display of tenacity and athleticism, and I would love to get this guy into a Timberwolves uniform after the June 23 draft (although I would take Irving on my PG-starved roster in heartbeat as well).

Jimmah, you will be sorely missed (in college).

• I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention the single-most exciting player and story of the 2010-2011 season, the Jimmer Fredette Experience at BYU.  Predictably, BYU’s incredible run was ended by a more athletic team with far more weapons in Florida, and the Cougars simply could not get by with Fredette taking that many shots, making too few, and not getting enough help (especially following the suspension of PF Brandon Davies).  Now, on to the NBA Draft.  My thoughts: not thought of as more than a 2^nd-round pick at the beginning of the season, Jimmer’s unmatched (in college) scoring ability and parking lot-type range has elevated him into the discussion of a top-20 pick in some NBA circles.  Thoughts on him across league reportedly are quite mixed, however, as Jimmer’s allergy to defense has knocked him down several pegs.  However, through the recent history of the league, if a player has one defined skill (i.e. shooting/rebounding), he can succeed in the NBA.  DeJuan Blair comes to mind, who was devalued so egregiously by his lack of ACL’s to a 2^nd-round pick and now starts for the Western Conference-leading Spurs in his 2^nd season.  Jimmer’s shooting ability will at least give him an 8^th man/bench role; I’d compare him to a Kyle Korver/J.J. Redick type without the size.  But Jimmer’s agility and athleticism will compensate for his lack of size, and if he proves to be a competent PG, he could be a tremendous asset for a winning team.  And don’t give me his lack of defense as a reason he won’t make it; Steph Curry doesn’t play any defense, either, and Derek Fisher still starts for the 2-time defending champion Lakers despite having his performance being described as “Corpse-Like”.

Running Diary of March Madness, Day 4:

• And that will do it for the tournament's first weekend. My bracket's destroyed, but I don't really feel all that bad about it, because, ya know, everyone else's is destroyed too. Oh well, such is the nature of March Madness. See ya next weekend!

• Prediction = correct. I think it might be safe to say that that was in Ben Hansbrough's bottom 3 moments as a basketball player today. 5/13 from the field, 4/10 from 3, and his team crashes out of the tournament in agonizing fashion to a team whose best player (Chris Singleton) didn't start and barely played since he's still recovering from a broken foot. The final was 71-57, but the game really didn't feel all that close. Mad props to FSU; they defended the hell out of Notre Dame today. Final Irish shooting percentages: FG = 31%, 3FG = 23%. Wow. Anybody have #10 Florida State against #11 VCU in their bracket?

• Prediction: Notre Dame is not coming back to win this game. This is the game that the Irish's over-reliance on the 3-point shot comes back to bite them, and an 11-point deficit against Florida State feels like 25. They don't have enough size up front to get easy baskets or create opportunities for open shooters, and won't get enough good looks from the outside to shoot their way back into the game. As analyst Bob Wenzel said just moments ago: "It feels like Notre Dame is playing against 7 guys right now."  Notre Dame's 1st half numbers: 31% from the field, 1/10 from 3; Florida State's: 40% from the field, 7/12 from 3. And the most important stat: Florida State 34, Notre Dame 23, at halftime.

• Florida State is a type of team that can give a strong offensive team like Notre Dame a lot of problems. FSU led the nation in FG% allowed (opponents shot just 36.2% against them in 2010-11), and has dominated an Irish club that was 2nd in the Big East from the 3-point line at 39.2% this season. Notre Dame has made just 1 of 7 attempts from 3 thus far, Big East POY Ben Hansbrough has just 4 points in the first 13+ minutes, and Florida State has led by as many as 11 and currently lead 25-16.

• Darius. Johnson. Odom. For. The Win. His dagger tie-breaking 3 with 25 seconds to go sends his Marquette Golden Eagles to a 66-62 win of #3 seeded Syracuse and a date in Newark next weekend against North Carolina. Quite an upset: Marquette was outshot 55% to 41% from the field, but won the game from the line (19 made free throws to 5 for Syracuse), and from forcing 17 Syracuse turnovers. Congrats to Buzz Williams and that school and program; can you say TWO 11-seeds in the Sweet 16?! THE MADNESS!!

• How about the VCU Rams?! Between them and Marquette, we could potentially have 2 #11 seeds in the Sweet 16. For VCU, its been the Joey Rodriguez-Bradford Burgess show. Rodriguez has dished 9 dimes to go with 11 points, setting up Burgess nicely (21 points, 8 boards). For Purdue, Ryne Smith has come out of nowhere to lead the team with 20 points on 6/8 shooting from behind the arc, and JaJuan Johnson has done okay (17 points, 7/14 from the field). But VCU guards have forced PG E'Twaun Moore into a 3/12 shooting night and just 8 points, easily losing the PG battle to Rodriguez. A very impressive performance by the Rams, who are just 3:33 away from a date in San Antonio for their first ever Sweet 16 (they lead 82-66).

• Arizona deserved to win that game. They dominated defensively and forced Jordan Hamilton into a ton of bad shots, which is exactly the recipe of how to beat Texas. That's how they struggled down the stretch (4-4 in their last 8 games), and that's what beat them today. Ugh. Time to root for all upsets from here on out.

• And Brown's heroics come to an end. His frenetic barreling-into-the-defense drive and shot misses badly, and Gary Johnson offensive rebound and putback attempt was too late. Final: Arizona 70, Texas 69. Up 2, with the ball, 14.5 seconds left, and Texas choked it. Unbelievable. My bracket is officially in the trash.

• From the "Spoke Too Soon" files: a brilliantly executed pick-and-roll leads to a Williams throwing up a layup, which he makes, AND-1. And Williams.... drills the free throw...

• NOOO!! 5-SECOND VIOLATION!! ARIZONA BALL!!

• AND TRISTAN THOMPSON GETS THE LAST LAUGH!! Absolutely tremendous defense on Derrick Williams, who passed on a 3 to drive to the bucket. Despite an array of spins and fakes by Williams, Thompson stayed grounded, and Williams forced an off-balance shot that was missed, and rebounded by Hamilton. Timeout Texas, with the ball, up 2, 14.5 seconds left.

• Wow, what a crazy sequence. Arizona F Solomon Hill has a spinning layup blocked by Thompson, the ball caroms out to Williams, whose 3-point attempt hits off the back rim. Another offense rebound, and Arizona uses its final timeout with 27 seconds to go. Oh boy...

• J'COVAN BROWN FOR 2! Texas by 2. 

• On the other end, Arizona PF Derrick Williams is getting anything he wants against the inside defense of Texas bigs Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson (each with 4 fouls). Despite struggling from the field (just 3 makes in 12 attempts), Williams has taken 14 free throws and made 8. We're tied at 67 with 1:24 minutes to go.

• J'Covan Brown is trying desperate to save his team (and my bracket). Brown is penetrating against the Arizona defense at will, who have no choice but to foul him. An 84.4% FT shooter for the season, Brown has canned all 13 of his attempts. Coach Rick Barnes is smartly employing offense-defense substitutions, keeping Brown in the game on offense and lifting him for Dogus Balbay, a defensive specialist on the perimeter, defensively.

• Really starting to worry about Texas, my pick to reach the championship game. Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson are facing long and strong defenders in the post along Arizona's front-line, and Arizona is playing with a great deal of confidence in taking a 34-21 lead with 2 minutes to go in the 1st half. Texas is forcing shots down low, and when they take outside shots, they're not falling (0/5 from 3). Contrast that with confident shooting of Arizona (6/11 from 3), and its not hard to see the difference between the teams thus far.

• David Lighty, are you SERIOUS?! 9/10 from the field, including an incredible 7/7 from behind the 3-point line, for a team-best 25 points. Lighty, William Buford, Aaron Craft, Jon Diebler, they can all stroke it. And the presence of Jared Sullinger up front assures that none of them will ever be doubled and will have plenty of open shots from the perimeter. Against Mason, THE Ohio State University is shooting 61.7% from the floor and 65% (13/20) from 3. Coincidence that they're leading 77-46 with 9 minutes to go? Uh, no.

• Major props to the Maize and Blue of Michigan for their valiant effort against #1 Duke, losing 73-71. The Wolverines trailed 68-56 with about 5 minutes to play, before the tandem of Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. led a crazy comeback. Also fueling the rally was the implementation of an extended 1-3-1 zone that stagnated Duke's offense. I wasn't a fan of the defensive look at first, because Duke was moving the ball crisply for easy layups and open 3's. But when the game tightened up, Duke's ball movement had changed to dribbling through double teams, turnovers, and contested shots late in the shot clock. It was such a shame to see Hardaway's running 8 footer carom off the back rim with 1 second left. That upset would be have been sweet.

• What a terrible ending to an otherwise fantastic game; we certainly got the crazy ending we were waiting for. First, G Venoy Overton takes a horrendous 3-point prayer from half-court with at least 3 seconds still remaining on the clock. It makes you wonder what exactly Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar was telling his players in that timeout. But that's not the end of the story. Carolina F John Henson gift-raps a second chance for Washington, as Overton's heave went through his hands. Out of bounds to UW underneath the basket with half a second left. Overton inbounds it to Thomas, who fires up a jumper in the corner that was short, but was interfered with by Henson! Goal-tending should have been called, which would have tied the game! Right? Wait, no. Because Thomas' shot was a 2-pointer anyway. Oh, and the ref DIDN'T review the play after Overton's prayer in which the ball CLEARLY landed out of bounds with 1.1 seconds left, not 0.5. That's a HUGE difference. AND the refs didn't award UW the points on Henson's goal-tending. Shades of the Rutgers-St. John's gaff in the Big East tournament. What. A. Disaster. Good grief.

• From the "OH NO!" files: John Henson, he of a 7-foot-5 inch wingspan (at least) tips the UW inbounds pass, which is intercepted by Strickland. 2 made free throws later, and it's 86-83 Heels with 5.4 seconds to go, timeout...

• Holy COW! An outstanding defensive possession forcing Barnes into a tough missed shot leads to Thomas creating an open 3 for G Scott Suggs. Buries it. 84-83 Carolina with 15 seconds to go, Kendall Marshall headed to the line for a 1-and-1.

• And just as I say that, UW has tightened up. A pair of turnovers led to a foul and 2 Zeller free throws, and a run-out lay-up by G Dexter Strickland. 84-78 Heels, just under 2 minutes to play. 

• And now the anxious moments begin to set in. How Washington responds to the increased pressure down the stretch from Carolina and the decidedly pro-Carolina crowd will be telling. Can the Huskies continue execute their offense to get good shots and to hit 3's (9/18 so far)? Can their bigs get big rebounds following Carolina missed shots? Can't wait for this crazy finish to come in Charlotte.

• I am extremely impressed with the consistently elevated level play of play from Washington to match the run-and-gun Tar Heels stride for stride, and it all starts with focus. Led by PG Isaiah Thomas, UW has consistently gotten great looks at the basket, both inside and out. The Huskies have shot 48% from the floor thanks to the stellar inside play by F Matthew Bryan-Amaning, and the Husky bench has provided 7 of the 8 3's UW has made in the game. Also impressive is the rebounding inside by Bryan-Amaning and C Aziz N'Diaye. UW can absolutely steal this game from the favored Heels in Charlotte, provided they continue to limit Carolina's 2nd chances, and run back on defense to set up their 2-3 zone and prevent Carolina's fast-break opportunities.

• Wow, is PG Kendall Marshall an impressive freshman for North Carolina. Harrison Barnes gets most of the publicity, and deservedly so, but one cannot ignore the imprint Marshall has left on this team, especially after the previous PG Larry Drew quit the team. And it's not so much the numbers he puts up, but the overall impact he makes on his teammates (though his 14 assists so far today doesn't hurt). Particularly impressive are his outlet and entry passes to PF Tyler Zeller in the post. Thanks to Marshall, Zeller always catches the ball in the exact right place, giving the Tar Heels the best chance to score each time, whether its running the floor like a gazelle and slamming it down between 2 defenders, or going off his left shoulder to shoot his patented righty hook.

• This Washington-North Carolina game has truly been a joy to watch. It's been fast-paced, up-and-down, run-and-gun, and every other adjective than can be used to describe this open floor, shoot-before-the-shot-clock-hits-25 kind of game.

• Day 4! And..... go.

Running Diary of March Madness, Day 3:

• That's for me for today, I'll be back tomorrow!

• As for the Gators, they're marching on to the Sweet 16 in New Orleans for a date with the winner of BYU and Gonzaga. Right now, I'm lamenting my BYU you pick to the Elite 8; Florida is really impressive, and I especially like the versatility of F Chandler Parson, who can handle the rock, shoot, slash, and defend. Alongside steady and sometimes spectacular G's Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, and the solid defense and muscle up front with F's Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin, the senior-led Gators are a strong bet to end up in Houston for the Final Four.

• And that'll do it. UF closes on a 7-0 run, aided by Walker's heroics, made free throws, and missed FTs by UCLA. The Bruins missed the front end of 2 separate one-and-ones, and finished with 9 missed free throws from the game. This will certainly serve as a learning experience for them, and this NCAA tournament experience should serve as a nice springboard heading into next season for them.
• And there's Walker again!! A DAGGER 3 after a near-steal has Florida back up by 4. A now a UCLA miss and UF rebound, and foul on UCLA. Florida going to the line, up 69-65, 32.8 to go.

• And right back comes the ice-in-his-veins shooting of Honeycutt: thats' the 2nd time in a row he's hit a 3 after Florida's lead stretched to 6. A Smith layup then brings UCLA to within 1.

• And sure enough, Boynton's back. But it's been the Erving Walker show for UF of late. A crazy falling-away off-balance 12 footer off the glass, then a dish to Vernon Macklin for a layup. 6-point Florida lead.

• Oh no: Kenny Boynton misses a 3, then lands on Smith's foot. Badly rolled his left foot. He's not walking with an overly pronounced limp though; he might be back before this game is over.

• Huge momentum swing: Parsons stuffs Smith on a dunk attempt from behind (playing with 4 fouls, still 6 minutes to go), then Florida G Kenny Boynton and F Erik Murphy hit back-to-back 3's. 61-55 Gators, largest lead of the game, 5:46 to go. Timeout UCLA.

• And that's the 4th foul on big UCLA C Joshua Smith, with 9:30 to go and Florida leading 55-53. Now we'll see if those energized Florida bigs take advantage.

• 2nd chances for Florida is starting to hurt UCLA. I've counted 4 offensive rebounds in the last 3 minutes or so, and F Alex Tyus in particular is crashing the glass with authority. UCLA's bigs may be starting to feel a little fatigue at this point in the contest.

• WELCOME TO THE BIG DANCE, PATRIC YOUNG. This Florida frosh F has a very bright future ahead of him, and is providing an necessary infusion of energy to the Gators and their home crowd in Tampa.

• A poor pass by Bruins F Reeves Nelson leads to a fast-breaking Erving Walker layup, and 1.  Nelson loafed getting back on defense, and the Bruins paid for it. Then he compounded the mistake by turning it over on the next possession, and argued with the refs about it. Nelson better get his head in the game, quick.

• Back and forth we go: neither team has led by more than 4 the entire way, and with 14 minutes to go, we're tied at 45-45. The tempo has increased: both teams are flying down the floor. Honeycutt (the Pac-10's leading shot blocker) just made a crazy block on a Chandler Parsons lay-up attempt. Very fun game to watch.

• A 56% shooting half from the field from Florida, yet they lead only 35-33 at the half. Why? Because when they miss, they don't get a second chance to score. UCLA enjoyed a 20-10 rebounding advantage, and also outshot UF 15 to 5 from the free-throw line (making 10 to Florida's 4). UCLA has to feel good about itself heading into half number 2, but will need to get better looks at the basket to have a chance to win, as Florida's tough defense forced the Bruins into just 40% shooting so far.

• I love the talent and potential of this UCLA team, and I'm bummed I didn't get to watch a minute of them all season. They rely on balanced scoring to win (4 double-digit scoring averages), and don't have a single senior on the roster. The sheer size of C Joshua Smith is impressive, as are the toughness and slashing ability of G Malcolm Lee and F Tyler Honeycutt. If they're able to add a solid point guard to the roster next season, the Bruins could easily be the Pac-10 favorite heading into 2012.

• UCLA led the Pac-10 in turnovers this year, mostly due to a lack of a true point guard. It is because of this shortcoming that their 1st-half performance against favored Florida in Tampa has been impressive. They've turned the ball over just 4 times despite Florida allowing them to play their preferred up-tempo fast-break style.  30-29 Florida, 3 minutes to go, 1st half.

• Kentucky's freshmen pair of Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones: 9/10 from the FT line in the final 1:01 of the game. Tight games are won at the charity stripe, and UK earned their 71-63 win over West Virginia to be the first participant in the 2011 Sweet Sixteen.

• Highly questionable (to put it nicely) coaching by WVU coach Bob Huggins late in this game. Johnny West (Jerry's son) hadn't played the ENTIRE GAME prior to the final 2 minutes, then is inserted into the game, presumably for his 3-point shooting. Well, he had his first attempt blocked, then airballed is 2nd try. Oh, and UK extended its lead to 7 with less than a minute to go. How'd that work out for ya, Huggy?

• It's been a tale of 2 halves for WVU. 41 points in the 1st half, 17 in the first 17:58 of the 2nd. Despite a solid game from senior G Joe Mazzulla (20 points, 3 rebs, 4 assists), he hasn't gotten much help.

• And yet, despite all the attention given to the explosive talents of the Kentucky freshmen (and rightfully so), it is the stellar play of unheralded senior C Josh Harrellson that has led the way for UK. Harrellson has chipped in a solid 15 points on 7/10 shooting, coupled with 8 boards (4 offensive). 61-58 UK, 2:02 to play.

• How about the aggressiveness of frosh G Brandon Knight for UK? After not making a shot from the field until the game-winner with 2 seconds left in Thursday's win over Princeton, Knight has fired 20 shots from the floor against West Virginia, making 9 for a team-high 23 points.

• It's amazing how Kentucky coach John Calipari just completely eschews traditional offensive sets and gives total and complete freedom to his players to create their own offense. This rubs a lot of his contemporaries the wrong way, and rightfully so. But hey, if you can recruit the way Coach Cal can, why bother with an semblance of offense? Unfortunately for him, unless he has a transcendent talent on his team (i.e. Derrick Rose), his teams will never compete for a national championship. There is just too much talent, disciplined talent, around the nation that inevitably his team will lose. It happened with last year's star-studded #1-seeded Kentucky team, it happened with Memphis in the '08 title game (in the most agonizing possible way to lose), it happened with his UMass teams in the early '90s, and it will happen with this Kentucky team (I believe in the next round to #1 Ohio State).

• I'm a little late to the party today, but better late than never: this West Virginia-Kentucky game has been great, and is a rematch of a regional final from last year (although Kentucky looks completely different). It's a fascinating contrast of styles, as WVU's well-tenured, experienced, and savvy seniors take on the quick-as-lightning UK freshmen.

Running Diary of March Madness, Day 2:

• And that's gonna do it for me today (other obligations). Check back throughout the weekend, as I will be back on the laptop tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy the rest of today's games everyone!

• Wow, was I wrong about Akron. They're still a long shot to win, but they're hanging right with heavily-favored Notre Dame. They've matched the Irish at the 3-point line (which is no easy feat) with a 6/14 effort, and have taken 9 more shots than Notre Dame thanks to 6 offensive rebounds. They could have been even closer if not for a less-than-stellar performance by C Zeke Marshall, who has made just 2 shots in 12 attempts from the floor. No one gave the Zips much of a chance, nor did they really merit one (they finished with just the 5th-best record in the 12-team MAC), but they've acquitted themselves well against a Big East power.

• One of my good friends is a senior at Villanova and one of their most loyal diehard fans. She assured me her boys would come to play today, as they were finally all healthy. And right now, she's right. Corey Stokes has been dialing up from long distance (3/5 from 3 in the first 11 minutes) and is building up his confidence, as is similarly named compatriot, Corey Fisher (11 points on 4/6 from the field). The 2 have combined for 22 of 23 Villanova points, as the Wildcats have built an 8-point lead over George Mason.

• The same cannot be said of Tennessee. 19-14 overall, 8-8 against a lackluster SEC, losses against Oakland, Charlotte, and USC (offsetting wins over Pitt and Villanova), and an 8-conference game suspension for their head coach, Bruce Pearl. Sure, an NCAA tournament appearance probably made it all worth it, but it culminated in a 30-point beatdown loss against 8-seeded Michigan in the 1st round. After going down 23-17, Michigan would outscore the Vols 58-2 the rest of the way to hand Tennessee to take a 75-45 defeat. A pathetic effort by Tennessee, and leaving those who picked you to win in the first round (yup, including me) feeling embarrassed.

• The Horns hold on to beat Oakland 85-81, but it certainly wasn't easy. Major congratulations are in order for Oakland, who had a great season. 25-10 overall (6 of those losses against high-major NCAA tournament teams, and a win at Tennessee), a dominant 17-1 in Summit League play, and 2 All-Summit League 1st team performers (Benson and Hamilton). Alas, their cinderella story was undone by a bad matchup; had they played a more vulnerable seed (re: Louisville), perhaps their tale would have unfolded differently.

• Another turnover by Texas has led to an Oakland 3. Hold your horses folks, this one's not over yet. 80-75 UT, 1:22 to play. 2 timeouts each way.

• Wow, is Hamilton tough. He keeps coming right at the Texas defense, jumping into defenders to draw contact and still finishing the play. He's also started yapping with Texas G J'Covan Brown. Things are starting to get chippy out there. 80-72 Texas, 1:44 to go.

• The Michigan lead has extended to 52-31 (a 16-0 run), as the Vols have now gone 6 minutes between hoops. Yikes.

• Just when you think Oakland is down and out, they just keep coming back. Reggie Hamilton's tough driving lay-up ("AND THE FOUL!!" - Marv Albert), has extended Oakland's run to 7-0, and he just forced a turnover and called a timeout to keep possession. A missed 3 gives it back to Texas, however. 78-70 Horns, 2:15 to go. Still 3 timeouts for each side.

• Michigan has recovered from a slow start and has taken a 40-31 lead over Tennessee, 3 minutes into half number 2. The Wolverines have taken 3 charges, flummoxing Tennessee with their switch to a zone defense. It will be a difficult road back for the Vols, as they are not particularly adept at shooting from the outside and must rely on transition hoops, solid defense, and getting the ball inside to win. And now another traveling call, leading to a Hardaway Jr. dunk. And ANOTHER walk. That's 11 turnovers and counting committed by Tennessee.

• Wow, is Akron in for a long day. After staying with Notre Dame to the first TV timeout (tied 6-6), the Irish ripped off a quick 10-0 run, punctuated by Big East Player of the Year Ben Hansbrough's 3-pointer. Hansbrough is a great shooter with a quick trigger, and has blossomed into a very nice college player after transferring from Mississippi State. He is the undisputed leader of the #2-seed Fighting Irish, but has plenty of help around him in F Tim Abromaitis, PG Eric Atkins, and Luke Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley (65% shooting from the field ) off the bench.

• The biggest difference for the Horns today has been Frosh F Tristan Thompson. Thompson has scored a team-best 17 points, and has also collected career-high 6 blocks. His solid one-on-one defense against Benson is another reason why Texas has a nice working margin (70-57) with just over 8 minutes to go.

• Benson is giving Texas all they can handle inside, but the Texas bigs have done nicely against him so far today. Benson, a 2-time Summit League Player of the Year, has 11 points and 10 rebounds, to go with 3 personal fouls. Texas leads 68-54 with 9 minutes to play.

• And of course, just as I said that, Michigan ripped off a 10-run to take a 27-23 lead, including a couple of 3's. The run was made despite 2 starters (Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jordan Morgan) sitting on the bench

• It's been the Tobias Harris show for Tennessee in the first half. 15 of the first 22 points for Tennessee, to go with a couple of blocks. The Volunteers are also making Michigan work offensively, as the Wolverines have shot a miserable 8/24 (33%) from the floor, including 1/9 from the 3-point line, in the first 13 minutes (Michigan averaged 8 made 3's per game for the season). Tennessee enjoys an athleticism advantage, and has made the most of it thus far, as they lead 22-17 heading into the under 8-minute timeout.

• This has to be said: Tennessee G Scottie Hopson's old-school crew haircut is mesmorizing. Hopson could totally star in White Men Can't Jump 2. This seems like a pretty apt comparison, as well.

• I really liked Oakland as a sleeper going into Selection Sunday. PF Keith Benson is going to play in the Association, and backcourt mate Reggie Hamilton is as good as guard as there is among Mid-Majors. Alas, it was impossible to like their first-round matchup against the Texas Longhorns. In my opinion, the Horns are perhaps the most underseeded team in the tournament, as they were the #1 team in the country just a couple of weeks ago. They are loaded from top to bottom, especially in the frontcourt. Forwards Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson are very capable scorers, and Jordan Hamilton might be the toughest individual matchup in the country. Add in savvy guards Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph, and the Horns are my pick to get out of the West region. Things have gone swimmingly thus far in Tulsa, as the Horns lead the Golden Grizzlies 29-19 with 8 minutes to go in the first half.

• And we're off on Day 2! I won't be here quite as long today, but there will be plenty of Madness goodness, so check back till about 4:30 EDT.

Running Diary of March Madness, Day 1:

• And so concludes day 1 of the tournament. I ended up in a tie for last place in my pool with just 9 correct picks (out of 16), but I'm staying optimistic. A bad first day of the Dance does not a Dance make. My ceiling is still very high. I didn't lose any Final Four picks. Or even Elite Eight picks. Only 2 in the Sweet Sixteen are gone. Silver lining, baby, silver lining. Talk to you on Friday!

• And that's why Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly are the best 2 players on K-State. Each made clutch buckets down the stretch, and Kelly pulled down key rebounds to hold off the hard-charging Aggies. Up next: the snail's pace of K-State vs. Wisconsin. Oh joy. 

• But just saw this ominous stat: Kansas State is 21-0 when leading with under 4 minutes to play. Not good for the Aggies.

• Don't look now... but here comes Utah State! A late run has them down just 6 at 56-50 with 3:45 to go. Here's hoping Wesley and Co. salvage 1 win out of 4 for my picks in the last round of today's games.

• Michigan State... wow. They closed the game on a 35-14 run... and still came up short, losing to UCLA 78-76. A fitting end to a tumultuous season in East Lansing.

• I'm frustrated with myself for believing in Missouri. This team has struggled for much of the 2nd half of its season, and had just one true road win all season long (at Iowa State). And predictably, they flopped against Cincinnati. They inexplicably didn't employ their "40 minutes of hell" style of full-court pressing all day (a Mike Anderson staple), and had no answer inside for Yancy Gates. Not happy with my picks on this day 1 of the tournament.

• And of course, Jacob Pullen, despite a sickness, has put K-State on his back, countering Utah State's 6-0 run with one of their own. 39-28 Wildcats, 15 minutes left.

• March would not be March without crazy comebacks. After falling behind 64-41 midway through the 2nd half, Michigan State has roared back on a 25-9 run to close the gap to 73-66. Alas, it may prove to be too little too late, as there is only 2 and a half minutes left in the ballgame.

• Tai Wesley has come out with a renewed sense of passion and aggressiveness for Utah State in the second half. The Aggies have started the half on a 6-0 run, with Wesley providing 2 of the buckets, and the Kansas State lead is all of a sudden down to just 5.

• Gonzaga is simply not missing from the field. 7/10 from 3, 60% from the field overall. St. John's' magical season seems headed for its conclusion.

• Missouri went through a 10 and a half minute stretch without a field goal. It's hard to win ANY game if you go that long without a bucket from the field, let alone an NCAA tournament game.

• Halfway through the final round of games for today, and all 4 teams I've picked are behind by double digits. Sweet. At least I had them all losing in the next round anyways. Sigh.

• And it's already Danger time for Utah State. Their best player, Tai Wesley, just picked up his 3rd foul with 4 minutes left in the first half. The K-State lead is 9. If that gets any larger before halftime, the Aggies will be heading back to Logan, Utah very shortly.

• Utah State is failing to match the physicality of Kansas State, as they've committed 7 turnovers to just one of K-State. The Wildcats lead 24-15 with 5 minutes to go in the first half.

• A 23-9 run to close the first half has Cincinnati running away from Missouri at intermission, as the Bearcats lead 39-28. After a 9-2 Mizzou start, it's been all Cincy (37-19).

• The absence of D.J. Kennedy is being felt in a huge way by St. John's, who trail Gonzaga 34-23 with 5 minutes to go in the 1st half. The Zags are shooting a sizzling 65% from the field, while out-rebounding the Red Storm 16-6.

• As ugly as the Belmont-Wisconsin game was to watch, Kansas State-Utah State easily will rival it. Both teams play grind-it-out, ball control, defensive games. First to 50 wins!

• ESPN.com's Giant Killer blog identified Belmont as its best Giant Killer, essentially a team from a small conference with the capability of beating a major-conference team. Why? Because of its 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding. So in the spirit of those stats, here's how those played out tonight (and then I'll stop whining): Belmont --> 6/22 from 3, 17 total rebounds, 2 offensive. Wisconsin --> 12/22 from 3, 29 rebounds, 5 offensive. Enough said.

• Wisconsin is simply not turning the ball over, and Belmont isn't putting any pressure on them defensively to force turnovers. As a result, Wisconsin is going deep into the shot clock and playing the exact kind of style they want to play. A 13-1 run has the Badgers up 56-40 with 8 minutes to go. That'll be 2 Sweet 16 picks lost. Oh well.

• And here comes Jordan Campbell! The Atlantic Sun's leader in the 3-point percentage dials up a pair of 3's from long-distance, and all of a sudden Madison's 10-point lead is slashed to 4. BRUINS!!

• My Belmont upset pick is looking shakier by the second. Why? 2 reasons: 1) the Bruins rely on the 3 to win, as they are one of the leading teams in the nation in terms of volume of 3's made. Tonight: 2 for 11. And 2) Jordan Taylor (from Bloomington, Minnesota) is better than anyone Belmont has. He made a NBA 3 with a hand in his face with 4 on the shot clock to put Wisconsin up 8. And trust me, right now, the way Belmont is struggling on offense, that lead feels like 20.

• Jimmer from half-court... SWISH. No, really. Watch the highlight. He shot it from the parking lot. 15 points, 5 assists, 33-29 BYU at halftime.

• A tight, hard-fought was broken open a bit by Wisconsin, who knocked down 3 consecutive 3's to jump to a 32-25 lead. Belmont stopped going inside, leading to run-outs and open 3's for the Badgers. 34-27 Badgers at half. And in case you're wondering: yup, I picked Belmont. To the Sweet 16.

• Can you teach me how to Jimmer? After watching his teammates struggle for most of the first half, Fredette finally asserted himself, leading a 9-0 run as BYU took a 30-25 lead. He hit his first 3 and has scored 12 points in the game.

• Ladies and gentlemen, meet Noah Dahlman, Braham, Minnesota's finest, and one of 3 Minnesotans in the Wofford starting lineup. Dahlman averages 20 points per game and can score with either hand in the low post. 

• The defensive attention Jimmer is commanding is opening up the floor in a big way for BYU's perimeter shooters, but they aren't making Wofford pay. If BYU is to make a deep run in this tournament, Jimmer's friends are going to have to make outside shots consistently, much like they did in their win at San Diego State on February 26.

• Wisconsin's limitations on offense are already on display in a big way. So far it's been Jordan Taylor isolation plays and not much else. Their defense will keep them in the game, but I love the depth and defensive ability of this Belmont team, and am confident the Badgers are going down in another upset special in Tucson.

• Jimmer's heating up now. Basically broke a defender's ankles, and drove in for another layup and-1. 10-6 Cougars.

• Even more perplexing: BYU pushing tempo, yet not looking for Jimmer. Jimmer finally got on the board with an and-1 driving layup 5 mins into the game. 7-6 BYU, at the first official timeout (14:51 left first half).

• A rather cold start for BYU: 0 for 3 from the floor, a cheapie foul on the Jimmer, and a 4-0 deficit.

• Prediction: Florida's lead will be at least 15 by the mid-point of the first half, and will win by 25. They have a tremendous advantage at every position on the floor against Santa Barbara, and the game is in Tampa. Good luck, Gauchos.

• A poorly-executed inbounds play leads to a desperation 3 that has no chance. Final score: SPIDERS 69, Commodores 66. That's now 3 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances that have ended in the first round for Vanderbilt. Rule #1 of NCAA bracket-picking: pick against Vanderbilt.

• Vandy, with 1 timeout remaining, throws the ball to mid-court, and uses that timeout. 2.5 seconds. 

• Ezeli made the first and intentionally missed the 2nd, but the ball was rebounded by, of course, Kevin Anderson. Anderson made the 2nd of 2. Timeout Richmond, Vandy ball, down 3, 3.4 seconds remaining.

• For some reason, Vandy threw the ball inside and was looking to shoot a 2-pointer, despite being down 3. The ball was intercepted by none other than my adopted favorite Spider, Mr. Darrius Garrett, with 5.5 seconds to go. He missed the front end of a one-and-one, but Richmond fouled Ezeli immediately. Smart decision, given that the lead is 3. 4.7 seconds left.

• KEVIN ANDERSON!! ONIONS!!!! The 2010 A-10 player of the year is earning that title today, with a driving fadeaway jumper over the outstretched arms of Ezeli. 68-65 Richmond, 18.9 seconds left.

• Instead, Richmond made a different adjustment: they went to a 2-3 zone, shading an extra defender toward Ezeli and preventing  him from getting a touch in the post. Garrett made a terrific block on a driving Lance Goulbourne, but was called for a foul (completely undeserved). After a 1/2 trip to the line and a stop on defense, Vandy has the ball down 66-64 with 58.9 seconds to go. Yet ANOTHER down-to-the-wire game on this topsy-turvy first day of the 2011 Dance.

• Uhm, can someone please explain to me why Richmond is continuing to try to guard Ezeli one-on-one with Dan Geriot? He has no chance. He's fouling every time. Why not being back Darrius Garrett? Already blocked Ezeli a couple times, and once set a conference record with 14 blocks in a game last season. Ezeli is 8/10 from the floor; time to try something different. Before it's too late.

• Richmond looks like they simply want it more right now. They just picked up 3 offensive rebounds on a single possession that lasted 2:20, and finally ending in a Cedrick Lindsey floater. Vandy has just 1 field goal in the last 7 minutes, and trail Richmond 55-52 with just over 8 minutes to play.

• And another 3! 11/19 from 3 for the game for Richmond. WHAT UP SPIDERS

• Back-to-back Kevin Anderson 3's, and we're tied at 48! Spiders! Still concerned about Ezeli though. 6/6 from the field, 15 points. Keep making 3's, Richmond, you're gonna need 'em.

• A 5/5 start to the 2nd half by Vandy has their lead extended from 3 to 9. As one of the many people who took Richmond in the 12/5 upset, I am not pleased. Justin Harper for 3! Back to a 6-point game. That's better.

• It's hard not to love Devon Beitzel, the PG for Northern Colorado. He ranked 13th in the NCAA in scoring this season at 21.4 points per game, and shot the 3 at a 38.4% clip. He's getting into the lane at will against the San Diego State man-to-man defense, but simply lacks a teammate who is making 3's following his penetration. And yet, his Bears trailed the heavily-favored Aztecs by just 6 at halftime. Chris Kaba and and Elliott Lloyd have to be ready and willing 3-point take and makers in the 2nd half for the Bears to hang around in this game.

• Finally, Pitt remembers they're playing UNC Asheville and pulls away to a 20-point lead, thanks to a 20-point 2nd half from Ashton Gibbs. Only took 35 minutes. Ugh.

• From goat to hero: Knight drives right and throws up a difficult layup, off the glass. Bucket. His only made FG of the game, comes with 2 seconds left, to give UK a 59-57 win. Another epic finish on this incredible first day of the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

• And Dan Mavraides ties the game with a 12-footer! 34 seconds to go, 33 on the shot clock, UK ball, tied at 57. Oh. My. Goodness.

• Kareem Maddox answers a driving DeAndre Liggins layup with a contested and difficult spin-fadeaway to bring Princeton within 2. A bricked jumper by Brandon Knight (0 points on 0/6) shooting has Princeton with the ball, down 2, with 1 minute to play...

• Doug Davis one-on-one against Terrence Jones is not a matchup Princeton will get too many points out of. They have to execute their offense effectively to get buckets. And just as I'm typing... Davis for 3... REJECTED by Jones. Wow. Yep, Jones will be playing in the Association next year. But Princeton's answers with another 2 to cut the UK lead to 2, 2:14 to play. Here we go again...

• Wow, it must be infuriating being a Pitt Panther fan. Pitt has sleep-walked through its first-round matchup with UNC-Asheville, leading by just 8 with 15 minutes to go.

• Another Harrellson put-back, and 1. Kentucky by 4, 4 minutes to go.

• Kentucky has responded with an 14-4 run to take a 53-48 lead over Princeton. Penetration by the guards on offense and dialed-up defensive energy on the perimeter has keyed the Wildcat run. Under 6 minutes to play...

• On the other end of the floor, the Vandy 2-3 zone is flummoxing the Richmond attack so far. Richmond relies on driving-and-kicking for 3's and free-throw attempts, but Vanderbilt is not being very accommodating. Should be an interesting matchup to watch.

• Festus Ezeli is proving to be a matchup nightmare for Richmond. The Vandy PF has 7 points already, which is the margin of deficit for the Spiders early. Kevin Anderson just picked Jeffrey Taylor's pocket, however, cutting the Commodore lead to 12-7.

• Another upset in the making: Princeton is gaining confidence by the minute, continuing to lead UK 44-39 with 12 minutes to play. One caveat: Cats PF Josh Harrellson is proving difficult to keep off the offensive glass, as he was fouled on consecutive UK possessions. Stunningly, Princeton has out-rebounded Kentucky 21-17.

• A very poor start for Richmond, on both ends of the floor.  Missed 3 of their first 4 shots, and allowed Vanderbilt to make their first 4, as they trailed 10-3 early.

• Despite it's wide array of NBA-caliber athleticism, UK has forced just 3 Princeton turnovers, seemingly content to sit back and let the Tigers run their offensive sets. As a result, Princeton is right there in this game. Come on, coach Cal: let your boys trap and press and see if you can't get a little separation. Wildcat nation cannot be happy with their team's, and coach's, performance thus far today.

• 2 other surprising developments unfolding: #16-seeded UNC-Asheville trails perennial tournament underachiever and #1 seeded Pitt by just 5 at halftime; and #13-seed Ivy league champ is stunning SEC tournament champion and star-studded Kentucky 36-34, just underway in the 2nd half. Just an incredible day of basketball so far, and still so much more to go...

• JUAN FERNANDEZ WITH .4 LEFT TO BEAT PENN STATE!!!!! Wow, just 4 games in, and this tournament already has been incredible. *Trying to breathe*

• TALOR BATTLE FOR THREEEEEEEEEE!!!!! His 5th 3 of the game ties the game at 64. Temple ball, 11 secs left. LET'S GO

• Penn State and Temple are locked in an epic battle on TNT. 18 lead changes, 1 minute to go, Temple by 1. Lavoy Allen has disappeared (3 points, but with 11 rebounds), but Ramone Moore (21 points, 9/14 from the field) and Juan Fernandez (19 points, 17 in the first half) are engaged in a 3-point shooting barrage against Talor Battle (20 points, 4/10 from 3), Tim Frazier (15 points) and David Jackson (14 points). A 3rd epic finish in the first 4 games of the day seems on the way...

• AND THEN DEMONTE HARPER SENDS THE CARDINAL FAITHFUL HOME WITH A DAGGER 3!!!! AND MOREHEAD STATE ADVANCES TO THE ROUND OF 32 WITH A 62-61 WIN!!!!! WOW!!!!!!!!

• Spoke too soon, redux: a 9-0 run has Louisville back on top 61-57 with 1 minute to play. Peyton Siva made a sensational drive-and-kick for a dunk with 2 seconds on the shot clock to extend Louisville's lead. This kid is the motor that drives the Cardinals, and he could have them in the Final Foor making plays like that. Wow.

• Spoke too soon: Louisville G Preston Knowles turns an ankle, and Morehead immediately goes on a 13-4 run, including 4 consecutive made 3's, to take a 57-52 lead with under 5 to play. Could be looking at our first upset of the day. Stay tuned...

• Just announced: Kyrie Irving WILL PLAY for Duke against Hampton on Friday night. Rut roh. 

• Louisville is starting to assert themselves in a big way against Morehead State. Their 3's are starting to fall, and they've adjusted nicely to the Morehead backcourt pressure. They've also ratcheted up their defense as well. They've outscored Morehead 11-4 in the first 6 minutes of the 2nd half for a 44-37 lead. Louisville fans are relaxing just a tad.

• I still can't get over how stupid it is that today's games are technically "Second Round" games. Really? We gave SIXTY teams first-round byes? Those play-in games that nobody watches, because they can't pick those winners anyway, are "First Round" games? There is no possible way that anyone will talk me into this. Hey, person that decided this, you're a moron. And rant..... over.

• Major props to Butler for holding off ODU and winning their first round game. Smith and Howard were able to stay on the floor despite foul trouble, and ODU's several missed layups came back to bite them. Bummer, though. This is my first bracket casualty. Oh well.

• A nice buzzer-beating 3 to end the first half for Morehead, but Louisville showed their might in rallying from a 10-point deficit to take a brief lead. Tied 33-33 at half.

• And then, Dalton Pepper comes to the rescue. Back-to-back thefts and layups, then another forced turnover. All of a sudden, in 47 seconds, West Virginia's lead balloons to 9. Clemson, you just got daggered.

• Under 2 mins to go, and Clemson, after trailing by as many as 9, have WVU's lead down to 3. Here we go...

• Sphincters are already tightening in Louisville, Kentucky. Morehead is ramping up the pressure tenaciously in the backcourt, and is playing with a great deal of confidence. They've led the whole way and are up 19-13 with 7 minutes to go in the first half. This is despite just 3 points from Faried on 1/8 shooting.

• 19 lead changes and counting for Butler-ODU, with 12:16 left in the game. 43-42 Butler.

• 7 rebounds for Faried in the first 10 minutes! SEVEN!

•  It's amazing that ODU is only up 2, because it feels like 10. ODU's 3-2 zone is giving Butler fits, as they live and die by the 3. ODU may not have the firepower to pull away from Butler, but Butler's inability to get good looks will really make it tough for them to win.

• Bigger uh oh: that's 4 fouls now against Andrew Smith, the other Butler big. Yikes.

• Uh oh. A defensive gamble leads to Butler PF Matt Howard picking up his 3rd foul. Both Butler bigs have 3 fouls now, and for a team already thin up front, Butler could be in a world of hurt in very short order against the relentless frontcourt of Old Dominion.

• How about the start for the Morehead State Eagles?! A 7-0 lead, and turning up the pressure on a team that loves to pressure full-court, Louisville. PF Kenny Faried is the all-time leading rebounder in NCAA history, and is going to be in the Association next year. If you think an upset here is a long shot, think again. The Eagles have the stones to pull the upset in this in-state battle.

• Just as required: WVU has a renewed energy level, and is brutalizing Clemson on the offensive glass.  Their first 3 makes came off of second chances, and their lead is increased to 5. Clemson needs a response, and quickly.

• Old Dominion heads into the break with a 29-27 lead. Some statistics of note: Shelvin Mack of Butler has 11 points, with all of his FGs coming from 3 (3/6); 8 points on 4/7 shooting for Frank Hassell of ODU; a 7-6 edge for Butler on the offensive glass (a stunning stat); 11 turnovers for ODU, 8 for Butler.

• And of course, just as I say that, WVU rips off an 11-1 run to end the 1^st half at tie the game at 40.  Clemson certainly isn’t capable of running away from WVU, and they certainly have to be discouraged at being tied at halftime after dominating for most of the game thus far.

• Not impressed at all with West Virginia’s first half.  They really appear to be sluggish, and Clemson is taking advantage in a big way, taking a lead by as much as 10.  West Virginia’s rotations are slow to Clemson shooters, and the Tigers are either getting open 3’s or blowing by flat-footed WVU defenders for lay-ups or put-backs.  If the ‘Neers don’t ramp up their energy level quick, they’re going to be heading back to Morgantown in very short order.

• Extremely impressed with Old Dominion’s tenacity on the defensive end.  Nothing is coming easy for Butler.  Even when they run their set and seemingly get a good shot, ODU’s bigs recover and block or challenge the Butler shot attempt.  Turnovers by the ODU guards are leading to several Butler run-outs, which is very un-Butler-like.  This game should go down to the wire, and I’m pulling for the Monarchs, who absolutely could pull off a 2nd-round shocker over Pitt.

• And we're off!! Happy Madness, everyone!!