The Denard Span Quandary

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

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Trade rumor sites are speculating about it.  ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting it.  And now, the Twins are ordering him not to rejoin the team this weekend, despite his being medically cleared to return to action.  Manager Ron Gardenhire even made up a cockamamie story about how “traveling has been tough” on him as the motive behind this command.

Yep, Twins fans, it appears a Denard Span trade is imminent, and quite possibly could get done prior to Sunday’s 4 PM non-waiver trade deadline.  And sorry Dad, I know how much you like that retro #2 jersey I bought you last year.

The trade partner?  None other than the Washington Nationals, the same team that ripped off made a deal with Minnesota just a year ago, exchanging closer Matt Capps with stud catching prospect Wilson Ramos.  The bounty?  Young closer Drew Storen, whom the Twins insist (and rightfully so) must be included in the deal, rather than All-Star set-up man Tyler Clippard.  Minnesota remains desperate for quality bullpen arms, having lost 4 capable relievers from the 2010 campaign and striking out badly on the offseason J.J.-Hardy-for-Jim-Hoey swap with Baltimore.  Storen, a few days shy of his 24^th birthday, has posted 25 saves, a 0.95 WHIP and a 3.32 xFIP in 50.1 innings this season for Washington and is under team control for 4 more seasons beyond this one.  He boasts a nice young arm and would likely be a long-term fit at closer if and when Joe Nathan is no longer a Twin.

But let’s focus on the deal from Minnesota’s perspective.  Twins fans and national baseball fans alike are questioning the motivations of the Twins brass to get this deal done, as prior to his sustaining of a concussion on June 3, Span was enjoying a nice comeback year following a down campaign in 2010.  After seeing his on-base percentage drop from .392 in 2009 to .331 last year, his OBP is back up to .361 this season.  Span is patient (24 walks to just 26 strikeouts and a career 249/204 K/BB walk), an adept baserunner and stealer (26/30 successful stolen base attempts in 2010 and 76% career success rate), possesses good speed and pop (30 triples in 4 seasons, including a league-best 10 in 2009), is a solid defensive outfielder (16.8 career Ultimate Zone Rating in 3897.2 innings) and is affordable ($13.75 million due through 2014 with a $9 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2015).  He’s the ideal leadoff hitter with his approach at the plate, has produced consistently in his 4 years at the big league level, and is a fan favorite; any team would love to have Span as their everyday centerfielder.

And yet he’s being discussed in a trade prior to the deadline.  Why?  Because the Twins have a younger, faster, and cheaper replacement readily available in Ben Revere.  Sure, Revere’s OBP is .292 is far cry from Span’s career mark of .366.  But Revere raked in the minor leagues to the tune of a .326/.385/.408 batting line, and stole 154 bases in 208 attempts (74%).  He’s also stolen 17 bases this year in 22 attempts, and his recall to the majors directly coincided with the Twins’ ascent up the standings (which I detailed here).  Revere has a similarly good eye at the plate (137/118 minor-league K/BB ratio, and 23/15 this year with the Twins), and while he has just 6 extra-base hits, he’s always a threat to steal a base or two if he reaches via a single or walk, or take an extra base on a base hit.  Defensively, he has a skill set very much akin to Span (great range, below-average throwing arm).   He’s 4 years younger (23 to Span’s 27), he has 4 more years of inexpensive team control before he hits free agency (his salary is unavailable but is likely in the $400,000 range for this season), and he won not one but two Twins Minor League Player of the Year awards.  The kid can really play.

In the end, it comes down to a decision on the allocation of resources.  Major-league teams typically like defense-first players in the up-the-middle positions (catcher, shortstop, 2^nd base, and center field), while seeking offense in the corner infield and outfield spots.  Both Span and Revere are versatile enough to play corner outfield positions (Span has 124 career appearances in right field and 85 in left; Revere played 42 minor-league games in left field and has 5 corner-outfield starts in the bigs), but neither have the power-hitting skills needed to justify a full-time position there.  And both are left-handed, ruling out a position switch to the infield.

A trade by 4 PM Sunday is no guarantee.  GM Bill Smith may elect to hold on to both players and demote Revere to a lower spot in the lineup or to an occasional spot starter/pinch-runner/late-inning defensive replacement role (no way Span loses his starting CF spot as long as he’s on the roster), managing the two defensive stalwarts comparably to how Span and former Twin Carlos Gomez were used in 2008 and 2009.

But the center field predicament won’t be resolved from within.  Whether or not a trade happens Sunday is up for debate; but either Span or Revere will be playing in another uniform in 2012, you can bet on that.