NBA Finals Preview

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

The time has come.

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Regular Season Results: Mavericks won 2-0

Analysis of matchups:

Point Guard

A matchup of old guys.

The ageless wonder marches on, as Jason Kidd’s place in history continues to get more impressive with each passing year and playoff series.  Ranked 2^nd all-time in assists and 3^rd in made 3-pointers, Kidd has evolved from the elite penetrator and distributor that he once was to the knock-down 3-point and free-throw shooter he is today (he shot a career-best 87% from the charity stripe this season) at the advanced age of 38.  His 2-man game with PF Dirk Nowitzki has been unstoppable at times in these playoffs, and was run to perfection in their round 1 series win over Portland.  Kidd, though no longer the athlete he once was, is still unguardable on the fast break, and his passing remains impeccable.  Additionally, Kidd is still a brilliant defender, using his huge and powerful hands to give Kevin Durant fits in the West Finals.  But this is no coincidence: Kidd is a 9-time member of the All-NBA Defensive team (4 1^st-teams, 5 2^nd-teams).  Expect more veteran savvy from this 10-time All-Star in the Finals, as he seeks his 1^st championship.

Mike Bibby is a shell of the player he once was, and we’ll likely not hear much from him in this series.  He hasn’t had a double-digit scoring game in the entire 2011 playoffs, and has scored in double figures just once since March 29.  He’s only taking about 5 shots per game, and making about 25% of them.  Miami’s reliance on its big lineup at the end of games (Wade-James-Miller-Bosh-Haslem) will squeeze Bibby from the rotation more often than not.

Notable advantage: Dallas

Shooting Guard

Our prayers are with you, DeShawn.

While Miami quite clearly possesses a huge advantage in this matchup on both ends of the floor, Dwyane Wade did not look entirely like himself down the stretch of his team’s win over Chicago in the Eastern Finals.  After obliterating Boston for 52.6% shooting from the field in the East semis, Wade’s shooting dipped to just 40.5% shooting against Chicago.  Granted, Chicago is the best defensive team in the NBA, and their team defense is generally effective at stopping an individual superstar.  But if Wade’s injury is affecting him more than he’s letting on, it could impact the flow and effectiveness of the Miami offense, which doesn’t have many options to begin with.

DeShawn Stevenson is a starter in name only, and he is the designated individual defender on the opponent’s best or 2^nd best scorer, depending on that player’s dimensions.  His minutes ramped up to just a shade over 20 a game in the last series, as he was tasked with defending the lightning-quick Russell Westbrook.  Here he gets Wade, who if hindered in anyway by his surgically-repaired shoulder (which he insists is not an issue), Stevenson’s ability to contain Wade will be enhanced.  Any little advantage Dallas can gain will certainly help their cause.  David Thorpe of ESPN, one of the best in the business, believes Wade must be at least 85% healthy for Miami win this series; who am I to doubt him?

Still, let’s be real: Wade would walk through fire if it meant having a chance to win an NBA title, and he would have to be carried off the floor to not be playing 40+ minutes a game in this series.  He will still play at an elite level, and carry his team for the stretches of time in which LeBron or Bosh is sitting or ineffective.  Wade only has one gear: full throttle.  Expect another memorable NBA Finals from him. 

MASSIVE advantage: Miami

Small Forward

Our prayers are with you too, Shawn.

Love him or hate him, here comes LeBron.  Despite all the vitriol spouted his way from the second he uttered those infamous words last July 8 (it had something to do with the words “talents” and “South Beach,” I don’t entirely recall), LeBron’s “Decision” has generated an interest in the NBA not seen since Michael Jordan’s Eff You 1995-96 season (as detailed here by the immortal Michael Wilbon of ESPN).  And here he is, in his 2^nd Finals, back to the NBA’s greatest stage in his 1^st season in south Florida.  And love him or hate him, he’s been just as valuable to the Heat as Dirk Nowitzki has been to the Mavs.  With Wade’s production dropping in the Chicago series, LeBron was given even more responsibility on the offensive end, while also being the crunch-time defender against Derrick Rose, one of the quickest and most explosive off-the-dribble players in the world.  LeBron will now go from defending the electric Rose to perhaps being the crunch-time Dirk stopper, and trust me when I say this: there is no other player in the history of the league who has ever been able to guard all 5 positions on the floor, and do it at an All-NBA 1^st team Defense level (a team which LeBron has been named to 4 different times).  Look, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s the wisest or savviest person alive when it comes to public relations (as Cleveland fans are quick to point out).  But if you don’t think he’s the best player in the world, you’re not paying attention, or simply still have too much malevolence for him and can’t see past that.

Shawn Marion made a big impact for Dallas, dropping a postseason-best 26 points in Dallas’ Game 5 series-clinching win over the Thunder in a playoff-high 40 minutes.  His unorthodox shooting motion and the unusual type of game he plays have been assets for the Mavs, as his runners and floaters within 10 feet have added an interesting wrinkle to the Maverick offense.  He also is a sneaky-good offensive rebounder, and may be a thorn in the side of the Miami defense as this series goes along.  He was very effective as the primary individual defender against Oklahoma City superstar Kevin Durant (Durant had just one game of better-than-50% shooting), but he has a whole new and more daunting mission in Finals, trying to stay in front of the most athletically-gifted player the league has ever seen.  Good luck, Shawn.

Substantial advantage: Miami

Power Forward

Ya know, this looks familiar...

This article outlined just how dominant a postseason Dirk Nowitzki has had this year, and the names he’s being mentioned next to are quite impressive (Jordan, Kobe, Malone, Iverson, Shaq, Olajuwon, Wade, McHale, Kareem).  If you’re unable to read the article, here’s the gist of it: Dirk is good. Really, really good.  How good?  His True Shooting percentage, which adjusts field goal percentage to weight 3’s and free throws differently, is the 4^th highest ever (64%) for players with at least 2 postseason series wins and a 25-point-per-game average.  But perhaps even more impressively, Dirk’s usage rate, which measures the quantity of possessions a player uses, is considerably higher than any of those of those 3 players’ postseasons.  Moral of the story: it is beyond remarkable that one player is relied upon so much for a team’s offense, yet is scoring as efficiently as he is.  Throw in his incredible free throw percentage (the much-ballyhooed 24-24 performance of Game 1 of the West Finals, 92.9% this postseason, 3 consecutive postseasons of 90+%), and Dirk has become downright unguardable.

Tasked with defending the 7-foot German will likely be four different Miami Heat defenders, and PF Chris Bosh will certainly get his fair share of chances.  I expect backup PF Udonis Haslem to get the lion’s share of this assignment, but Bosh is longer than Haslem and may have a better chance of at least bothering Dirk from time to time.  Offensively, simply going from Kevin Garnett to anyone Chicago threw at him was a tremendous boon to Bosh, who saw his points (12.8 to 23.2) and field goal percentage (40.4% to 60%) spike from the Boston matchup in the East semis to the Chicago series in the East finals.  He’s become more assertive offensively, growing in confidence with each game, and has become the reliable 3^rd scoring option Miami has needed to advance to the NBA Finals.  Bosh’s role could be enhanced further in this series; he enjoys a considerable quickness advantage against Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood, who will check him defensively most of the time.  Chandler and Haywood will be forced to stray to places on the floor where they are not quite as comfortable, improving Miami’s offensive potential.  Don’t expect Bosh’s production to drop off much from the Chicago series; Dirk may have to switch on to him at times, which is energy Dirk can ill-afford to spend on defense, given how much he’s relied upon offensively.  Still, it’s not difficult to see who has the advantage in this matchup.

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Center

There should be a lot of grimacing in the Finals.

This is one of the more underrated matchups of the Finals.  While neither Miami’s Joel Anthony nor Tyson Chandler of the Mavericks will be confused with Hakeem Olajuwon, both play key roles for their respective teams, providing toughness, energy, interior defense, and rebounding on both ends of the floor.  Chandler’s length has frustrated penetrators and slashers trying to get to the rim, and he has the short-area quickness to recover to his man if the penetrator/slasher is forced to pass.  In addition, one huge key to this series will be rebounding and second-chance points.  How was Dirk set up for his go-ahead 3-pointer at the very end of the Game 5 series-clinching win over the Thunder?  An offensive rebound.   One reason is Dirk so effective is that he often draws a bigger, more physical defender to him on the perimeter, leaving a smaller, less hard-nosed player to box out a Marion, a Chandler, or a Haywood inside, creating 2^nd chances for the Dallas offense.  Chandler and Marion were particularly effective against Oklahoma City with this tactic, and any easy points Dallas can get will make things a lot easier for them as they operate their half-court offense.

Conversely, Anthony’s supplanting of Zydrunas Ilgauskas early in the postseason has worked wonders for the Miami lineup.  Like Chandler, he’s a minimal offensive threat, living primarily on tip-ins and put-backs.  But he’s worked diligently to be an above-average post defender, and will play a large role in keeping Dallas’ offensive rebounding in check.

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Bench

I believe in these guys.

The disparity between the effectiveness of the benches of these two teams has narrowed considerably since the start of the postseason.  Don’t get me wrong; Dallas is much deeper.  But Udonis Haslem single-handedly changed the complexion of the East Finals, and adds much-needed front-line depth and energy for a Heat team desperate for size.  Haslem figures to be only bench player to play big minutes for Miami, and probably will see extensive time defending Dirk, maybe even into crunch-time.  Neither Bibby nor backup PG Mario Chalmers provide much of an impact on either end of the floor, and combined for just 35 minutes in the Game 5 clincher against Chicago.  And Mike Miller, who was recently reported as having played with a ruptured thumb for the past month, rarely has made much of an impact in any game this postseason (10.1 mpg, 2.2 ppg, 21.1% from 3).  He did play a combined 50 minutes in game 4 and 5 against Chicago, and it seems he’s supplanted James Jones as the designated 3-point bomber from the outside; but I have my doubts whether either of those two pine-sitters will make much of a difference in the Finals.

Conversely, Dallas’ bench comes in riding a wave of momentum they’ve carried all year, and was only buoyed further by the addition of Peja Stojakovic ahead of the buyout deadline in January.  Unfortunately for Peja, this matchup doesn’t bode well for him, as the athleticism-challenged Mavs are at a major disadvantage in that category against a Miami team with a similar fleet of athletes to that of Oklahoma City.  Peja’s numbers were way down in the OKC series (16.4 ppg, 5.0 ppg, 23.8 3PG%) in comparison to the previous 2 playoff rounds (24.3 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 46.2 3FG%), and I don’t expect that to change much in the Finals.  Fortunately, both SG Jason Terry and PG J.J. Barea figure to play prominent roles against the Heat, providing a needed infusion of energy and quickness to the court.  In fact, Barea is being mentioned by Heat players in the same vein as the superstar they just defeated in the previous round, MVP Derrick Rose.  When Barea is penetrating with his deceptive quickness against an unsuspecting defender, a whole new array of options is at the Mavs’ disposal.  If left alone, Barea will drop a lay-up or floater over a taller defender.  If the help defender rotates over to help, Barea will dish out to one of 3 capable 3-point shooters in Dirk, Peja, and Terry.  Like Dirk, Barea’s level of play in these playoffs is unprecedented (and just in time: Barea is set to be a free agent after the season).  Expect to see this Barea-led, shooting-laden lineup frequently throughout the series; will the pair of lockdown perimeter defenders Miami features be able to slow it down?

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Coaching

Finals newbies.

Both coaches have gone through arduous seasons, from Mavs coach Rick Carlisle calling his players soft, to the Cry-Gate episode Miami coach Erik Spoelstra inflicted upon his team.  Carlisle, in his 9^th season as a head coach and 3^rd season with Dallas, is making his 1^st NBA Finals appearance, masterminding the Mavs’ quest to this stage.  He deftly adjusted his lineup to make up for the loss of his 2^nd-leading scorer (Caron Butler) less than halfway through the year, managed his vets’ minutes perfectly, and has his team on the threshold of the 1^st title in the franchise’s history.

Spoelstra has taken a bad rap all season long, looked at by some as this snotty little kid in over his head, and wondering when GM Pat Riley will dump him and take over head coaching duties.  But from everything I’ve heard from those around the team is that nobody is more prepared than Spo, that he has his players ready to play night in and night out, and is smart enough to know when something’s not working and to change it up to boost his team’s performance.  Personally, I also like the fact that he worked his way up from the dungeons of the Heat video editing offices to become a NBA head coach on the verge of an NBA title (as I mentioned in this column).

Just as in the last round, I give Carlisle the slightest edge due to experience.  But Coach Spo has become so mentally strong throughout the most media-intense NBA season any team has ever had, and he will not be frightened by the intensely bright lights of the Finals.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

Intangibles

Both teams come into this series rested, and I don’t mean just thanks to the 4 and 5 days off they’ve gotten between series.  Unlike the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers, who had made repeated trips to the NBA Finals in the last 3 seasons, both Dallas’ and Miami’s stars enter the series without considerable recent mileage on their legs.  Neither Dirk nor Wade has been to the Finals since their matchup in 2006, and both were eliminated in the 2010 postseason’s 1^st round.  LeBron was eliminated in the 2^nd round (not to mention completing no-showing the final 3 games of last year’s East semis against Boston).

In addition, while this series is being billed as the rematch of the ’06 Finals, both teams are made up of completely different parts this time around.  Each team features just 2 holdovers from that series 5 seasons ago (Dirk and Terry for Dallas, Wade and Haslem for Miami).  However, there is one parallel that will translate in this series, and that is the Dirk-Haslem matchup.  Dirk has struggled with big, athletic, physical defenders in the past, and Haslem helped limit him to just 39% shooting in that series.  But Dirk is a completely different player now, rising to a level we’ve never seen him rise to before (and he’s been extraordinarily impressive in past series, we just didn’t realize it because he wasn’t getting enough help and his team was losing).

In the end, I give the slightest of slight advantages to Dallas, who has displayed the type of mettle throughout the playoffs suggesting they believe this is their time.  They’ve won 5 straight road playoff games in the 2011 postseason, including 2 in each of the past 2 rounds; they won’t be afraid to play in the Heat’s home building in front of the late-arriving home fans (I couldn't resist taking a shot at the Miami “fan”, whose PR staff actually felt the need to launch this initiative this season).  Dirk is on another planet right now, and I fully expect him to not slow down even one iota and match LeBron and Wade shot-for-shot in what promises to be a classic Finals.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

The pick: Heat in 7

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I’ve got eight categories identified above, and in six of them, I’ve given the advantage to Dallas.  And yet I’ve picked Miami to win the series.  Why?  Because the two advantages Miami has are too substantial to be overcome by the Mavericks.  James and Wade have truly become Batman and Robin, carrying the weight of the world on their shoulders from the moment the ink dried on their new contracts, on a mission to prove all the haters wrong.  They moved mountains and overcome obstacles no other team in the history of the league had to deal with (even the 72-win Bulls), and are poised to win their 1^st championship as teammates.

I expect Dallas to employ a zone look from time to time, hoping to limit the penetration of LeBron and Wade and dare others to beat them from the outside, namely Bibby, Chalmers, and Miller (and Jones, but I’m not sure how much run he’ll get in this series).  Miami will counter with its big lineup, removing Bibby and Chalmers from the floor and using a combination of James, Wade, and Miller to bring the ball up the floor.  This greatly enhanced Miami’s defensive capabilities against the quickness of Rose in the previous series, and Wade and LeBron likely will check Kidd and Dirk as they run their crunch-time pick-and-roll offense.  This chess match will be really fun to watch.

I do have hope for Dallas in this series, as Miami, despite rolling through their competition so far this postseason (winning all 3 series by a final count of 4 games to 1), has never faced as good a shooting team as Dallas has.  The Mavs can put 4 elite shooters on the floor at one time, with 3 of them averaging at or above 40% from behind the arc in the postseason, and Miami hasn’t been the greatest at defending the 3-point line.

But Miami employs a level of athleticism and defensive pressure Dallas hasn’t seen in the playoffs, and whether the Mavs can overcome that impediment to win 4 games against a determined Heat club remains to be seen.  As much as I’d love to see it happen, I just don’t.  But my goodness, is this going to be a fun series to watch, from start to finish.

I’ve got the Heat in 7.  But boy do I hope I’m wrong.  Because seriously, how can anyone outside of South Beach root for a team where this is acceptable, BEFORE you’ve won ANYTHING?

Minnesota Twins Week 8: A runaway train in the wrong direction

This is the 6^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Record: 17-35

An image Twins fans haven't seen often in 2011.

• Matt Capps ailing

This past week, closer Matt Capps was unavailable for the final two games of the Seattle series after trying, and failing, to complete a 5-out save in Monday’s 8-7 home loss.  Why?  Because of a sore arm.  And this makes sense, considering Capps has been brutally overworked by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire this season.  It’s been a vicious cycle for Capps, as he has been the lone trustworthy reliever in a Twins bullpen that has been utterly atrocious all season long, ranking dead-last in all of baseball with a 5.65 ERA and .292 batting average allowed (league-average: 3.69 ERA, .243 BAA).  And he certainly hasn’t been immune from the struggles of the ‘pen, posting a 1-3 record and a 5.09 ERA with 4 blown saves in 11 chances.  But just how overworked is the poor Twins closer?  Consider this: Joe Nathan, in his elite closing days for Minnesota from 2004-09, never attempted to record a save of more than 3 outs more than 3 times in any of those 6 seasons, and just 13 times total.  He also pitched more than 1 inning a combined 28 times, and no more than 6 times in any one season over that same timeframe.  Capps has attempted a 3+-out save 4 times already this season, all of them in the month of May alone, and has pitched more than 1 inning 6 different times already in 20 appearances in the 2011 season.  Here is the list:

Closer	Season	Save attempts of 3+ outs	Games of 1+ inning pitched
Nathan	2004	3	5
Nathan	2005	1	4
Nathan	2006	2	5
Nathan	2007	3	6
Nathan	2008	2	4
Nathan	2009	2	4
Capps	2010	2	4
Capps*	2011	4	6

*We’ve only played one-third of the season!

This is extremely troubling, and has ramifications beyond just this lost season.  Capps said he was available for Friday’s game, but this probably won’t be the last time this year he comes down with arm soreness unless his usage rate decreases drastically.

Hopefully a DL stint will be avoided.

• Liriano results since no-no

Speaking of soreness, LHP Francisco Liriano’s turn in the rotation was skipped due to a sore shoulder, and Nathan is on the Disabled List with a bum elbow.  This is a disappointing development for Liriano and the Twins, as the Dominican lefty had finally seemed to be turning things around.  In the month of May, Liriano had his no-hitter, and after a clunker his next time out, he limited Seattle and Arizona to just 3 runs on 9 hits over 13 combined innings while walking 5 and striking out 13 over that span.  This team has already been wrecked by injuries, so what’s a few more?  But on the plus side…

A sight for sore (Twins fan) eyes.

• Injured players returning

IF Tsuyoshi Nishioka and C Joe Mauer are both back playing in rehab games, though it is still unclear when they will return to the Twins’ lineup.  The guess here is that Nishi will get at least 2 weeks’ worth of at-bats before making his way to the big club.  I’m not quite sure about Mauer; the Twins really have coddled him his whole career in Minnesota, and they certainly won’t rush him back, especially that the 2011 season is already all but over in terms of playoff contention.  He wasn’t given many at-bats in the spring while still recovering from offseason knee surgery, and I believed he and the Twins organization have learned from that.

In addition, LHP Jose Mijares was activated off the DL on Monday following two rehab appearances, and LHP Glen Perkins is progressing in his recovery from a right oblique strain and hopefully will be back in 2 weeks or less.

Despite high expectations within the organization, the player brought back in the J.J. Hardy trade hasn't delivered.

• Jim Hoey is who we thought he was

In this column, I talked about how impressive RHP Jim Hoey had been in the game I got to see him in person in Baltimore back on April 18.  Unfortunately, his stuff just hasn’t translated into success, and he’s been downright abysmal as a major-league reliever this season.  Despite an outstanding Class AAA season (11 2/3 innings, 16 K’s, 1.54 ERA), Hoey entered Friday night with a 9.72 ERA in 8 1/3 innings with the big-league club, and was rocked for 2 runs and 4 hits while taking the loss in Friday night’s devastating defeat.  Just when you get your hopes up that the Twins may finally win a game, they go out of their way to blow it, and the bullpen was every bit the reason why.  And it remains to be seen whether Hoey, with an upper-90’s fastball but 10.45 ERA, will be able to stick in the major leagues.

Hey Slowey, grow a pair.

• Kevin Slowey’s poor attitude

It was really surprising and disappointing to hear that Kevin Slowey’s stock has fallen so far in the organization that it appears, at least from the outside, that they will look to trade him.  Slowey had struggled mightily this season in his adjustment from the starting rotation to the bullpen, posting a 4.91 ERA and 19 hits allowed over 14.2 innings this season.  He also was just put on the DL, and will return to the minors to be a full-time starter, at least in the short-term while the team likely will explore trade possibilities.  My take: Slowey had some success as a starter in the past (over 150 innings twice, 3 10+-win seasons, a career-best 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 160 innings in 2008), and he let that success go to his head, refusing to do what was best for the team by believing his move to the bullpen was a demotion and carrying a terrible attitude into the clubhouse as a result.  I obviously don’t have any real proof of that; it’s just my conjecture.  But this Star Tribune column was pretty jarring, and tells us what we really need to know.  Unfortunately, I don’t really see Slowey being able to be moved now, since his value is at its lowest point, and he needs to pitch, even against lesser competition for any other organization to take him seriously as a starting rotation candidate going forward.  Now, GM Bill Smith isn’t trading a prospect at a low point in value as last year’s Wilson-Ramos-for-Matt-Capps swap suggests (remember, Ramos was the chip the Twins were attempting to persuade Seattle into taking as its cornerstone in a deal for Cliff Lee).  Hopefully, for all parties involved, Slowey comes off the DL strong, pitches great in Class AAA, and a solution is found, be it with the Twins or another club.  I don’t believe we’ve heard the last of this saga, and Slowey may yet pitch again for Minnesota.  A very similar predicament befell Glen Perkins just 2 years ago, who also fought internally with the organization (failed to tell the team about an injury, missed more time than expected, filed a grievance against the organization, etc.).  Perkins is still with the club, and is now in a prominent role as a late-inning set-up reliever.  Slowey may yet grow up and discover he’s a big boy now; only time will tell.

The shining beacon of hope for the future.

• Expectations for the rest of the season

I went to 2 games at Target Field this week and enjoyed them immensely, watching a pair of brilliantly-pitched performances by Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak.  Swarzak actually carried a no-hitter into the 8^th inning, and the Twins won the game on a walk-off hit by 3B Danny Valencia in the 10^th.  But alas, the team still sits at a league-worst 17-35, 15 games out of 1^st place in the AL Central division, 12 games out in the Wild Card, and 6-15 at home.  Let’s be honest, there’s no real hope about the season as far as any playoffs are concerned.  There are a couple of things I would like to point out that will be happening later this season, one that is very exciting, and the other… not so much.  The good news is that stud righty pitcher Kyle Gibson should arrive in the next couple of months, and may be in the rotation already if a spot was available (as we’ve learned with Slowey, clearly a rotation spot is not available at this time).  A top-10 talent out of the University of Missouri that dropped to the Twins at the #22 overall pick in the 2009 draft due to injury and signability concerns, Gibson tore through the minors in 2010, eventually arriving at Class AAA Rochester and posting excellent peripherals (3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.9 K-rate in 199 1/3 career innings).  It stands to reason that Gibson could get a call by September at the latest, and that provides some semblance of interest in a team in which the “Dog Days of Summer” phrase is more apt this year than in most years.

And that brings me to my next, not-so-positive point: because this season is already in the tank, it stands to reason that the Twins could explore the trade value of some of its players, particularly those whose deals expire at the end of the season.  Buster Olney of ESPN speculated that the Braves, given their outfield injuries, could be interested in OFs Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, both of whom are free agents at season’s end.  I tend to believe that Kubel is the more likely of the two to be traded, since Cuddyer is much more versatile of a defender, not to mention that he is a beloved member of the franchise both on the field and off.  If I’m the Twins, I throw the book at Cuddyer to keep him, and explore Kubel’s value, which is at an all-time high.  Also helping their cause will be Kubel’s likely selection as the Twins’ lone All-Star representative this season, as the team is pretty much devoid of any other realistic candidates for All-Star selection.  Minnesota probably won’t give up much, however; this team is still built to win now, and should improve greatly once Mauer and Nishioka return to the lineup.  I’m telling you, the lineup and rotation simply are not this bad (the bullpen, yeah, it IS that bad).  The Twins are not playoff contenders this year (boy, did I ever get that wrong), but this team should be right back in contention in 2012.  A Kubel trade makes sense, given his high value and the team’s outfield depth (Ben Revere can step in and play every day right now if given the chance).  But I don’t expect Minnesota to sell more big-league players than they have to, despite the depressing 2011 campaign.

Abolishing the catcher-baserunner collision rule

 Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Collisions like these have no place in baseball, and rules changes should be undertaken immediately.

This was supposed to be my usual Twins rant.. er.. blog.  And my next column about my beloved Minnesota Boys of Summer will go up in the next day or two, I promise.  But there’s an issue that came up earlier this week that I just have to comment on, and that’s regarding the tremendous misfortune incurred by the San Francisco Giants and their stud catcher, Buster Posey.  If you haven’t seen the play, here it is (warning: it’s ugly).

A brief description of what happened:  After rallying from 4 runs down in the bottom of the 9^th inning to tie the game at 6-6 this past Wednesday night, May 25^th, the Giants were in a bit of trouble in the top of the 12^th, as the opposing Florida Marlins had put runners on 1^st and 3^rd with one out.  Pinch hitter Emilio Bonifacio lifted a fly ball to short right field, and Giants RF Nate Schierholtz made the catch and fired a laser to Posey on a hop.  Scott Cousins was the Florida baserunner at 3^rd, and he had tagged up and was making a mad dash to the plate.  Posey wasn’t able to field the ball cleanly, but it probably didn’t matter; Cousins launched himself into the defenseless Posey, with the force of a blitzing middle linebacker hitting a quarterback who doesn’t see him until the last second.  Posey writhed on the ground in agony, and it was very obvious why: his left ankle had been pinned under him, and the force of the blow from Cousins force Posey’s ankle to roll in a way the human ankle is not supposed to roll.  Just today, he had surgery to repair three torn ligaments in the ankle, and is out for the remainder of the 2011 season.

Naturally, in the aftermath of such a public, eye-opening event, questions start being asked.  Should this rule change?  Should baserunners be allowed to hurl themselves into completely vulnerable catchers for the sake of scoring a run?  Jayson Stark wrote this column on the subject, and I was surprised at some of the comments made not only by people within the baseball industry, but former catchers as well.  Apparently, this is nothing new; it is simply what you sign up for as catcher, and although the injury is horrific and unfortunate, it was a legal play.  “That’s baseball,” they say.

I could not disagree more.  There is no place for this in the game of baseball, and the rule should have been changed Thursday morning, and hopefully will be in the near future.  Here are some of the (weak) arguments to keep the play legal, as well as my counterarguments:

Argument #1: This is the way it’s always been; catcher-baserunner collisions are part of the game.

This is the biggest joke of an argument I’ve ever heard.  If we kept doing things they way always did them, baseball players still wouldn’t wear helmets in the batter’s box.  Football players would still have helmets made of padded leather.  Basketball would still be played under the rim, and players would be shooting balls into peach baskets.  Sports evolve; rules are meant to be changed.  This rule is no different.

Argument #2: A rule change would be too complicated to implement, and would take too long to take full effect.

I don’t buy that for one second.  Aren’t baserunners called out if they run out of the baseline, everywhere else on the diamond?  Aren’t infielders penalized for impeding a baserunner’s path to the next base, therefore awarding said base to the baserunner?  Rule one: if the baserunner intentionally plows into the catcher, with or without the baseball, without making an attempt to score, he is automatically out and subject to a lengthy suspension.  Rule two: if the catcher, in the absence of the baseball, doesn’t make the plate available for the baserunner to score, the baserunner is automatically given the base.  Can someone please explain to me why these changes don’t make sense?  This brings my opponent to his counterargument…

Argument #3: It is too difficult for the home plate umpire to determine the intent of the baserunner, or the positioning of the catcher relative to when the ball is or isn’t caught, in order to make the proper call.

Um, maybe it’s just me, but hasn’t baseball ALWAYS relied on the subjective judgment of its umpires?  Umpires are allowed to call obstruction, when baserunners impede a fielder’s ability to field a batted or thrown ball.  They’re also allowed to call a balk on a pitcher, easily the loosest, least-defined rule in the game.  Heck, don’t ball and strike calls vary considerably from one umpire to the next?  This is another of many weak arguments so far.

Argument #4: Catchers have all that protective gear on, so they can absorb a blow from a baserunner easier than other fielders.

Are you serious?  I’m sorry, but when did catchers become NFL running backs with shoulder, chest, and knee pads under their jerseys, and helmets encompassing their entire heads?  Apparently I didn’t get that memo.  Because last I checked, catchers wore their equipment outside of their uniforms, and guarded against foul balls that would bounce every which way.  When the manufacturer of catcher protective wear designed his product, did he design it to protect its wearers from 180- to 250- projectile missiles coming at them like freight trains?  Didn’t think so.

Argument #5: If this had happened to a lesser catcher (i.e. Class AAA or fringe major leaguer), we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

Now, this is the one point that is valid.  I will concede that we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion had this disastrous event not befallen Buster Posey, a star coming off the 2010 National League Rookie of the Year award, and instead had been suffered by a lesser, and less well-known, player.  But who cares?  It doesn’t matter how the issue first arose; we’re talking about it now, aren’t we?  It’s not going away.  Society is, by nature, reactionary.  And it often takes catastrophic events to prominent figures for change to be made.  Things happen, and we adjust as we best see fit.  Just because nothing has been done about this rule in the game’s history doesn’t make it wrong to act upon it now.

In the 1970 All-Star Game, all-time hits leader Pete Rose bowled over Cleveland catcher Ray Fosse.  His career was never the same.  Just last year, promising young Carlos Santana, also of Cleveland, was run over by Red Sox baserunner Ryan Kalish, and he was fortunate to narrowly miss a catastrophic, career-threatening knee injury.  The evidence is there, right in front of us.

I don’t care that this rule hasn’t been changed in 100 years; better late than never.  The NFL is cracking down on illegal hits.  Concussions are the single biggest issue facing the sports industry today.  To do nothing about this rule, to still put catchers in the line of fire, despite the heightened awareness surrounding safety issues in sports, is stubborn, shortsighted, inane, and just plain wrong.  Don’t listen to Brad Ausmus or Buck Martinez, MLB.  Do the right thing and change the rule.  Baseball will be better because of it.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals Preview

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Regular Season Results: Mavericks won 2-1

Analysis of matchups:

Point Guard

Youth vs. experience, the permeating theme of the series.

 

Jason Kidd’s career has followed quite an interesting path.  One of the best point guards in NBA history (9.1 career assists per game, ranks 2^nd all-time in assists behind John Stockton) and a lock for the Hall of Fame upon completion of his career, Kidd was a notably terrible outside shooter.  Kidd never posted a 3-point percentage of better than 37% in any of his first 13 seasons.  That is, until his deadline-day trade from New Jersey to Dallas in 2008.  In that 2008 season as a Net, Kidd shot 35.6% from behind the 3-point line; as a Maverick, that number jumped to 46.1%.  Short-season fluke?  Think again.  Kidd’s 3-point shooting percentages in the subsequent 2 seasons: 40.6% and 42.5%.  But then that number dipped back to 34% this season, raising questions of if, at age 38, Kidd is approaching the end.  Kidd’s value to Dallas at this point is almost completely as a long-range spot-up shooter, either as the beneficiary of a penetrate-and-kick, or in tandem on a pick-and-roll with PF Dirk Nowitzki.  Will Kidd be able to knock down these outside shots in the Western Finals?  And how many more miles does he have left in the tank?  Does he have 2 more playoff rounds in him?

In addition, Kidd’s numbers against Oklahoma City this season are among the worst he’s put up against any individual opponent.  Take a look:

	Minutes	FG%	3FG%	Assists	Turnovers	Points
Season Averages	33.2	36.1	34	8.2	2.2	7.9
Against OKC	37	23.3	20	9.7	2.3	6

It stands to reason that the quickness, strength, athleticism, and physicality of counterpart Russell Westbrook had something to do with this, and will be an interesting storyline to follow during the series.  Westbrook, named to the 2010-11 All-NBA Second Team, is a terrifying matchup for any team, particularly in transition.  His explosiveness in beating defenders off the dribble and slashing through a double team following a pick-and-roll is as difficult a defensive proposition as there is in the league.  When he’s focused, getting teammates involved, and tearing up defenses, Oklahoma City is close to unstoppable.  However, far too often Westbrook ignores his teammates in favor of his own offense, falling in love with the 20-footer or the 3-pointer (of which he’s a 27.4% career shooter).  Twice this postseason he took at least 8 more shots than All-NBA 1^st teamer and teammate Kevin Durant; twice his team lost.  Good Westbrook : Thunder win :: Bad Westbrook : Thunder lose.  It’s really that simple.

Notable Advantage: Oklahoma City

Shooting Guard

Yo, you got Dirk?

This position is a common theme for both clubs: neither team gets a great deal of offense from its starting off-guard, as both OKC’s Thabo Sefolosha and Dallas’ DeShawn Stevenson are defensive specialists and will take their turns against the primary scoring options of the opponent (Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki).  Not only that, but both teams feature instant scoring options off the bench at this spot as well, as James Harden of the Thunder and Jason Terry of the Mavericks are versatile offensive threats and thorns in the side of their opponents with their abilities to light up quickly.  It will be a very interesting chess match to see when and for how long each defensive or offensive-minded player plays each night, and how the dynamic on the court changes given the personnel on the floor at any given time.

Advantage: Even

Small Forward

Lead the way, big fella.

There’s truly never been an NBA player quite like Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant.  At 6’9” and a very slight frame (he’s listed at 230, but I think he looks as though he’s closer to 210), Durant’s scoring prowess is matched by very few in the world.  Durant, at the young age of 22, has already won 2 scoring titles (and not coincidentally, was the youngest ever to do so), and was recently named to his 2^nd consecutive All-NBA First Team.  He followed his tremendous 2009-10 season (30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg) by becoming the best player of the U.S. National Team at the FIBA World Championships in the summer of 2010, and winning the MVP of the tournament as he led Team USA its first gold medal since 1994.  While not the quickest off the dribble or the greatest of defenders, Durant has become as unstoppable a scorer as there is in all of basketball.  His height and length make it so his shot is rarely challenged, let alone blocked, and his adept use of the pick-and-roll with Westbrook as well as back screens away from the ball have driven defenses batty.  He struggled at times against Memphis, and can be bothered by physical defenders; Tony Allen and Shane Battier were in his shorts at times, and Durant let that affect him as he turned in an 11-point, 3/14 performance in a convincing Game 6 loss.  Whether Durant will have similar difficulty against Stevenson, Shawn Marion, and perhaps Corey Brewer remains to be seen, but I still expect Durant to average 28-30 points for the series with at least a game or 2 approaching 40.

Speaking of Marion, the versatile and well-traveled small forward remains a nice scoring option for Dallas.  He has a nice outside jumper out to 20 feet (although it certainly isn’t the prettiest), but generally makes his hay on floaters and short jumpers as well as offensive rebounds and put-backs.  His numbers have dipped a bit in the postseason (from regular season numbers of 12.5 points on 52% shooting to 9.7 points on 43.8% shooting in the playoffs), and given his smaller frame (listed at 6’7”, 228), he may have a difficult time getting his shot off in traffic against the army of long-armed bigs Oklahoma City features, especially shot-blocking maniac PF Serge Ibaka.  I don’t expect Marion to make a great deal of impact in this series; if he can play decent defense against Durant and chip in around 10-12 points per game, that’s about all Dallas can ask for.

Substantial advantage: Oklahoma City

Power Forward

Dirk, the man of many hairdos.

I forget where I originally heard the nickname, but my favorite name for Mavs superstar PF Dirk Nowitzki is “the Deutschlander from 3-Point Lander”.  One of the most underappreciated players in the league today, all Dirk has done throughout his career is win, and put up Hall of Fame numbers doing it.  He is now firmly a top-30 player of all-time, and with an NBA title, would ascend firmly into the top-20 (forget that top-10 discussion, he’s not in that realm – yet).  Think about his career numbers: 23 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 47.6 FG%, 38.1 3FG%, 87.7 FT%.  And all by a 7-footer.  Just amazing.  Dirk and his Mavs have always conveniently been labeled “soft” by national pundits and fans alike; um, have you been paying attention?  That debate should be moot at this point, after the Mavs wiped the 2-time world champs off the floor in Western Conference semis.  All Dirk did was average 25.3 points and 9.3 boards, shoot 57.4% from the floor, emerge as the best player in a series against Kobe Bryant, and become the most difficult individual matchup in the league.  His herky-jerky array of pump fakes, pivots, and spin moves inevitably end with him hitting an unguardable jumper in the face of a perplexed and frustrated defender who can’t play any better defense than he did on that possession.  I look forward to what should be the best one-on-one matchup in the West Finals, against a super athletic African power forward, which leads me to my next point…

That super athletic African power forward, Thunder PF Serge Ibaka, is an incredible story of perseverance and opportunity.  The 3^rd-youngest of 18 children, Ibaka escaped from the war-torn Democratic Republic of the Congo and signed with a team in the Spanish league.  He was drafted in 2008 with the 24^th pick, came over to the States one year later, and has been nothing short of spectacular for Oklahoma City.  The mega-athlete, once a very raw prospect, has developed nice jumper out to 18 feet, and is not a liability on offense (9.9 ppg this season).  But where Ibaka makes his biggest impact is as a breathtaking weak-side shot blocker with incredible defensive instincts.  His ability to chase down opponents on a fast break and knock their shots against the backboard or into the 5^th row of seats has become the stuff of legend, and he has upped his amazing 2.4 blocks-per-game regular season average to an astounding 3.6 bpg in the 2011 playoffs, including an astounding 9 blocks in OKC’s Game 5 first-round clinching win over Denver.  If Ibaka can be a nuisance to Dirk more often than not, OKC has got a chance to reach the NBA Finals.

Substantial advantage: Dallas

Center

Time to rumble.

Both centers are brand new to their respective clubs (this is Tyson Chandler’s first year in Dallas, while Kendrick Perkins didn’t arrive in capital of Oklahoma until February), but the impact on their teams cannot be overstated.  Dallas went out in the first round of last season’s playoffs and desperately looked to upgrade the center position over the departing Erick Dampier.  Enter Chandler, a gift bestowed upon them for the pu-pu platter of Eduardo Najera, Matt Carroll, and the nonguaranteed contract of Dampier.  Chandler revamped the defense of the Mavs, providing Dallas with the long and athletic shot blocker they needed next to Nowitzki in the middle.  In a related story, Dallas has advanced to the Western Finals in just 10 games and is the favorite to be the West representative in the Finals.

His counterpart is Perkins, whose arrival in the Jeff Green trade was the perfect antidote to an imbalanced Thunder roster.  Perkins has added toughness, rebounding, and rugged interior defense to a club that had struggled on D prior to the trade, while also creating a domino effect on the rest of the team.  The trade of Green allowed Harden to flourish as the 6^th man, while the addition of Perkins also freed Ibaka to be the weak-side defensive terror that he has become.  I give Chandler the slight advantage here due to his familiarity in the system and overall defensive impact, but the infusion of toughness and championship mettle that Perkins provides shouldn’t be undervalued.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

Bench

Westbrook who?

In this column, I picked the Lakers defeat Dallas because LA typically is vulnerable against quick point guards who penetrate into the lane and can either score or kick out to shooters at will, and I didn’t believe the Mavs possessed this type of dynamic player who could exploit this weakness.  And I was emphatically wrong, as backup PG J.J. Barea looked like a young Stephon Marbury (before he went crazy) against the Lake Show.  Barea should get a ton of minutes in this series, as he is the only player Dallas has that is in the realm of Westbrook in the quickness department.  Overall the Mavs go to 4 reserves they trust, and I was particularly impressed with the minutes C Brendan Haywood gave Dallas in the last series against the Lakers, as he rebounded effectively and bothered LA’s post players on defense.  The best buyout addition any team made this season, Peja Stojakovic continues to be a lights-out shooter (46.1 3FG%) despite being of advanced age (33).  He and 2009 6^th man of the year Jason Terry are lockdown 3-point assassins, and shot LA right out of the playoffs in the last round, combining for a 15/16 barrage from deep in the Game 4 clincher.  Their other buyout add, Corey Brewer, may also see time in this series as a perimeter defender against Durant, as he is considerably taller and longer than Stevenson.

Oklahoma City is equally deep, as coach Scott Brooks confidently plays 5 reserves key playoff minutes.  OKC bulked up in the front-court at the trading deadline, not only with the much-ballyhooed deal with Boston for Perkins, but also with the much more under-the-radar addition of Nazr Mohammed from Charlotte.  Mohammed and fellow forward/center Nick Collison provide the muscle, rebounding and defense up front, and much like Haywood for Dallas, Collison was very impressive with his overall energy level in OKC’s series win over Memphis, limiting Grizzlies forward Zack Randolph’s production after a huge game 1.  The Thunder often don’t miss a beat when Westbrook is taken out of the game, and that is because they have one of the most reliable backup point guards in the NBA in young Eric Maynor, a 2^nd-year guy out of VCU whom GM Sam Presti nabbed on the cheap last season from Utah.  And their other reserve, who if kept in his current role could be a 6^th man of the year candidate himself, is G James Harden.  Harden’s minutes and production exploded following the Perkins trade, as he replaced Jeff Green seamlessly.  He comes off the bench flying, and is one of the best and most electrifying players in the league in transition.  Part of what will make this series so fun to watch is that these 2 teams are so evenly matched, up and down the lineup, and that includes their respective benches.

Advantage: Even

Coaching

Ladies and gentlmen, the winner of the Jim Carrey lookalike contest, Rick Carlisle.

The youth vs. experience clash between these two teams doesn’t just pertain to the players on the floor; the disparity is equally as evident on the sideline.  Oklahoma City is led by 46-year old 3^rd-year man Scott Brooks, who took over for former coach P.J. Carlesimo just 13 games into the 2008-09 season.  All Brooks has done since is lead OKC to back-to-back 50-win seasons and their first 2 playoff berths in Oklahoma City, and has the 2009-10 NBA Coach of the Year award to his credit.  Brooks also commands the respect of his players, having been an NBA point guard for 6 teams over 10 years.  But he showed his playoff inexperience in the last series, as OKC’s offense began to struggle a great deal, particularly at the end of games.  Over a 9.5-minute stretch of Game 3 against Memphis bridging the 4^th quarter and overtime, Durant didn’t take a single shot.  As the team’s superstar and undisputed #1 scoring option, this is unacceptable.  Can Brooks shake off any lingering doubts and make the key adjustments when the stakes are highest?

On the other side we have Dallas coach Rick Carlisle, a veteran of many rodeos past: in 9 seasons as an NBA head coach with Detroit, Indiana, and Dallas, Carlisle has had just one losing season, and of the 8 seasons he reached the playoffs, 6 times he won at least one playoff round.  Carlisle’s coaching performance this season was masterful; he dealt with the loss of his number #2 scorer, Caron Butler, to a season-ending knee injury, and coaxed outstanding seasons from veterans like Kidd, Terry, and Marion.  He also beautifully integrated Chandler into what has become an excellent defensive team, and is well-known for his in-game adjustments and exploitation of matchups.  Dallas definitely gets the nod in the coaching matchup heading into the series, as Brooks still needs to prove that he can avoid the meltdowns that nearly cost OKC the series against Memphis.

Notable advantage: Dallas

Intangibles

The question asked by the media when a team clinches early in one round and must wait upwards of a week or more before its next series begins is always the same: rested or rusty?  That is, will the team with the long wait be at an advantage heading into the next round by virtue of such a long rest?  Or is too much rest a bad thing, in effect disadvantaging that team to the point of being lethargic and playing at a less-effective level?  I think it depends on the sport: in baseball, where a hitter’s timing everything, players may be more apt for a regression in production due to a layoff.  This is not true in football (the NFL rewards is top 2 teams in each conference with first-round byes), and is definitely not true in basketball, particularly for an old team like Dallas.  You don’t think vets like Dirk, Kidd, Terry, Marion, etc. couldn’t use all that time off to recuperate and gear up for what should be an incredibly rough-and-tough series against the Thunder?  Conversely, the young legs of Oklahoma City are much more spry and apt to perform at a high level after such a short rest, and shouldn’t be at that great of a disadvantage heading into game 1.  Still, I give a slight edge to Dallas here.

Slight advantage: Dallas

The pick: Mavericks in 6

Michael Wilbon said it best on Monday’s edition of ESPN’s Pardon The Interruption: Oklahoma City is the team of the future, and Dallas is the team of today.  There is certainly a much greater level of urgency on the part of the Mavs, as they are the oldest team in the league; incredibly, OKC features the youngest club in the entire NBA.  It should be quite a clash of styles; the savvy and guile of the Mavs’ vets against the youthful exuberance of the Thunder.  For Dallas to take the series, they need 1) Dirk to continue to abuse whatever defender Oklahoma City throws at him, 2) shoot as well from outside as they have all postseason, and 3) goad Westbrook into falling in love with his own offense and freeze out his teammates like he has at times in the playoffs thus far.  On the other hand, for Oklahoma City to win, they need 1) Westbrook to be an equal scorer and distributor as the game dictates, 2) to abuse Dirk physically and force him into difficult shots and more passes with the length and size of their defenders, and 3) hope Dallas is less effective from deep than they have been during their 8-2 playoff run.  I like the Mavs to take this one in 6 games, clinching the series on Oklahoma City’s home floor.  Why?  They have had success on the road this postseason (3-2), and Oklahoma City has struggled this season in defending the perimeter.  That is a recipe for catastrophe against a Dallas team coming off a sizzling shooting performance against the Lakers (20/32 from behind the arc in Game 4).  The series will be extremely competitive, and either team can win it with the right breaks going their way.  In the end, I like the veteran-laden Mavericks to survive and advance to their 2^nd ever NBA Finals (2006), and give Dirk and Kidd the chance to win the first championship of their illustrious careers.