Prince Fielder... to the O's?!

The Prince. Could he be wearing Black and Orange next season?

 

This past Thursday (April 21^st), the Milwaukee Brewers announced a contract extension with their cornerstone left fielder, Ryan Braun.  Despite already being under contract until 2015 for a total of about $40.5 million, the Brew Crew worked with Braun on extending his pact an additional 5 years that has him owed approximately $141.5 million through 2020, with a $20 million mutual option or $4 million buyout due to him in 2021.  The deal all but assures the superstar LF will be another Robin Yount: a Brewer for life.

The stunning announcement comes at a time when optimism around the Milwaukee ball club is at an all-time high.  The team acquired Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to boost a withering rotation around holdover Yovani Gallardo.  The team’s attendance has ascended each year in gorgeous new Miller Park, save for a small drop off last season.  The expectations for this year’s team are similar to that of when LHP C.C. Sabathia was acquired for the stretch run in 2008: playoffs or bust, if not a deep playoff run.  However, there remains one question, one form of unfinished business, which sticks in the craw of the greater Milwaukee area:

Will the Brewers be able to ink prospective free agent 1B Prince Fielder to an extension following the 2011 season?

Fielder has been saying all the right things, and at the right price, Prince surely would love to stay with the only big-league organization he’s ever known.  But at what price will that be?  Although they shouldn’t face challenges from the big bad AL East powers from the Bronx and Beantown, Milwaukee will not be without competition for the elite-hitting first baseman’s services, as the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, and perhaps St. Louis Cardinals could all be in the running.

Yet lying in the weeds, ready to swoop in to battle their elite divisional counterparts, sit my darkhorse pick to land the Prince in the winter of 2011:

The Baltimore Orioles.

Yes, those Baltimore Orioles.  This is the same franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since its last postseason berth in 1997.  This is the team that started 32-73 last year, on pace for a 112-loss season.

But instead, they finished 34-23 over the final two months of the 2010 year under new manager Buck Showalter, who instilled a new winning attitude around the team as they improved in all facets of the game and started playing winning baseball.  A 2-11 stretch has befallen the club following a hope-inspiring 6-1 start to the 2011 campaign, but not all hope is lost.  Baltimore will be challenged to compete in 2011, but they aren’t built to win right now.  The lineup should be marginally improved with additions of DH Vladimir Guerrero, 1B Derrek Lee, and 3B Mark Reynolds, but with the possible exception of Reynolds, these are stop-gap solutions, not long-term fixes.  The rise of the Birds depends greatly on the growth, maturity, and improved performance of the very-young Oriole starters.  LHPs Brian Matusz and Zach Britton have #1-starter capabilities (Britton’s sinker has been compared by ESPN Insider Buster Olney to a better lefty version of Fernando Valenzuela’s, check it out at about the 43-minute mark), while RHPs Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have the stuff to be in the big leagues for a long time as middle- to back-end rotation-type starters.  The Orioles absolutely believe they can compete with the rest of their elite division in the coming years.

So the logical next step?  Signing Prince Fielder, the second-most premiere free agent in the 2011 class (I fully expect Albert Pujols to return to St. Louis).  Now for my reasoning why:

THE TEAM HAS A HUGE NEED AT FIRST BASE

The Orioles have had a revolving door at the position since the end of 2005, when Rafael Palmeiro retired.  Let’s face it; Derrek Lee is nothing more than a 1-year fix.  GM Andy MacPhail has paid attention to what New York and Boston have done in recent years, adding Mark Teixiera and Adrian Gonzalez, respectively, to man the right side of the diamond for years to come.  While Prince is not nearly the defensive stalwart the aforementioned two 1Bs are, the offensive statistics are quite comparable to the two, as well as to fellow elite 1B Ryan Howard of the Phillies.  Take a look:

PLAYER 162-GAME AVERAGES (Baseball Reference)
Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
Adrian Gonzalez	599	92	170	35	2	31	99	78	125	0.284	0.368	0.504	0.872	136	302
Ryan Howard	600	102	167	30	3	46	139	85	192	0.279	0.371	0.57	0.941	140	342
Mark Teixiera	615	104	175	40	2	37	121	82	124	0.285	0.377	0.538	0.914	134	330
Prince Fielder	574	92	161	32	2	37	105	88	129	0.281	0.386	0.536	0.922	140	308

Fielder also has maintained extraordinary durability throughout his career, missing a total of 13 games over the past 5 seasons.  This compares favorably to Gonzalez (11 missed games over that span), Howard (42), and Teixiera (45, 30 in one season).  His track record is outstanding, and even if he becomes decreasingly effective in the field, the Orioles would have the option of penciling him in as the designated hitter, an option National League clubs, of course, do not have.

Next, we take a look at what the Orioles have in-house at the position.  Their best prospect at the position?  Joe Mahoney, who broke out as the organization’s minor league player of the year at Class AA last year, but hadn’t put together great minor-league seasons prior to that.  A 2007 6^th round pick, Mahoney is ranked by ESPN Insider Keith Law as the 8^th-best prospect in the organization, and has the versatility to play left field as well as first base.  With Derrek Lee set to be a free agent at the end of 2011, and Luke Scott’s final arbitration year set for 2012, the O’s could give Mahoney the necessary minor-league time to develop at either or both positions in 2011, shift him to left field in 2012, give him some major-league playing time that same season (while possibly shopping Scott, if he’s brought back at all), and potentially give him the full-time LF job in 2013 should he continue to perform in the minors.  But Mahoney had been a fringe prospect prior to last year’s breakout campaign, so if he cannot build on last year’s performance, it stands to reason the O’s could look outside the organization for other options.

Looking at the big-league club as it is currently comprised, it’s not hard to get excited about its short- and long-term prospects.  The team has cornerstones at no fewer than 4 positions, including every up-the-middle spot.  C Matt Wieters’ college and minor-league hitting prowess has not yet translated to the majors, but Joe Mauer’s power potential wasn’t tapped until his 5^th full-season (and has since been sapped).  But he will definitely hit given more at-bats, and has drawn raves for his catching and pitch-calling abilities.  A healthy 2B Brian Roberts is as good as any second baseman in the game.  CF Adam Jones is a Gold-Glover in center field and provides solid if unspectacular production from the right side of the plate.  RF Nick Markakis is a quality corner outfielder with plus range and arm and is a consistent 20-HR/90-RBI lefty hitter you can plug into the #3 spot in the lineup.  And this says nothing of young Manny Machado, Law’s 26^th-best prospect entering 2011.  Machado is still a few years away from the bigs, but is said to have All-Star potential with the combination of strong hitting ability and defensive acumen to man a left-side-of-the-infield position for years to come.  And J.J. Hardy, when healthy, should provide decent hitting and outstanding glove work in the mean time until Machado is ready.

The addition of Fielder would add a 5^th cornerstone player to the roster, and continue Baltimore’s ascent to competitive status in the AL East.

THE ORGANIZATION HAS SHOWN A WILLINGNESS TO SPEND MONEY

Yes, this strategy bombed earlier in the decade, as Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro (the ‘04-‘05 version) and other free agents had been brought in, but the losing continued.  But when you look closer, this team has been willing to pay much more than rookie-level salaries to players from outside the organization.  Baltimore traded for Hardy, paying a hefty $5.85 million to a player who hasn’t held a big-league job for 3 years due to performance and health concerns.  Lee and Guerrero were signed for a combined $15.25 million.  Mark Reynolds’ contract skyrockets in value in the coming years.  The Orioles are not allergic to spending money, and Fielder could be a huge difference-maker for a club that absolutely could compete as soon as next year.

Prince won’t come cheap, and here is a list of comparable contracts that have been handed out recently, which you’ll notice is the same group of elite first basemen whose statistics were examined earlier:

	PLAYER CONTRACTS
Player	Years	Value ($Millions)	Current Age
Adrian Gonzalez	7	154	29
Ryan Howard	5	125	31
Mark Teixiera	8	180	28
Prince Fielder	??	??	27

It is fair to assume Prince, the youngest of the group, will command a deal in the 7-year, $154-million range Gonzalez recently received from Boston, especially given that his agent is the notorious Scott Boras.  The O’s entered the bidding for Teixiera, the hometown star, in the 2008 offseason.  Will Baltimore be willing to offer a similar deal to Fielder to compete with their AL East brethren?

THE FRANCHISE WOULD LOVE A PUT-BUTTS-IN-THE-SEATS TYPE OF SIGNING

Attendance at Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been on a downward slide for several years.  Following the Miguel Tejada signing before the 2004 season, attendance improved from roughly 30,000 to 34,000 fans from ’03 to ’04.  Every year since (save once), turnout has declined steadily, ending at a rate of just 21,000 per game in 2010, ranking 24^th out of 30 teams.  I was at a pair of games just last week against my beloved Minnesota Twins; I can personally attest to buying $10 cheap seats and then moving into the close confines of the lower-deck seats between the dish and 3^rd base, without resistance from the ushers.  

The signing of Fielder would reenergize a fanbase that is one of the best in baseball, in a city with a rich baseball tradition that lusts for a winning team.  Remember, this is a franchise that had a grand total of eight losing seasons from the inception of the 162-game schedule in 1961 until 1997, including an above-.500 record every year from 1968 to 1985.  They haven’t had a winning record since.

Look, the fanbase isn’t stupid.  They would see right through a huge splash signing just for the sake of making a huge splash signing.  But Fielder fits a grave need on the diamond for the O’s, not to mention what he would do for fan excitement (and the box office).

THE ORIOLES ARE THE BEST FIT FOR PRINCE WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER COMPETITORS

Baltimore is (presumably, don't ever rule it out) in the nice position of not having to compete with either the Yankees or Red Sox for Fielder.  Looking at the other competitors in the running for Fielder, it appears the Orioles are in the best position to land him, as each of the other teams has varying reasons as to suggest Fielder may not go there:

CUBS

This will be their strongest competition.  GM Jim Hendry’s job status has been in question for a number of years now, and he could be looking to make a statement move.  They have no obvious long-term fit at the position, having traded Derrek Lee last year and signed Carlos Pena to a 1-year deal for 2011, and I believe they’re a darkhorse contender to rob Albert Pujols from their hated rivals to the south, St. Louis.  Should they miss out on Pujols, Fielder is a likely consolation prize.  But will new owner Tom Ricketts be willing to spend that kind of money, considering that previous ownership allowed huge contracts to oft-injured 3B Aramis Ramirez and underperforming LF Alfonso Soriano?  We’ll see.

ANGELS

Their interest in Fielder depends entirely on how they perceive 1B Kendrys Morales’ health going forward.  Owner Arte Moreno also has shown no fear in doling out money to put a winning club on the field (OFs Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, anyone?), and should Morales not return to full-health, Los Angeles should put in a pretty strong bid for Fielder.  But they lost out on LF Carl Crawford in the offseason to Boston; will they be willing to go the extra mile for another free agent this time around?

MARINERS

Another team without any semblance of a long-term plan at first base, but how serious would they be about entering the Prince sweepstakes?  This team is far and away the furthest away from contending for the postseason, so why surrender so much of its resources to a single player when they still have so many other areas to improve before they have a chance to contend?  Still, this organization has spent money in the past (namely on RF Ichiro and 3B Adrian Beltre in recent years), and they are still in the discussion for Fielder.

MILWAUKEE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD HIM IN THE OFFSEASON

And so this story comes full circle, as we return to the present state of the Brewers.  It stands to reason that the Braun signing simply was to engender goodwill with the fanbase, similar to what the Minnesota Twins did with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer in the 2008 offseason as they knew a Johan Santana trade was inevitable.  The Brewers reside in baseball’s middle class as far as overall player payroll is concerned, sitting at roughly $85.5 million committed for the 2011 season.  Factoring in a $23-million-per-year extension for Fielder onto the new Braun deal, and Milwaukee will have approximately 40% to 50% of their payroll committed to 2 position players, assuming Milwaukee’s payroll increases to the $90-$100 million range, by the 2016 season.  The hunch here is that the Brew Crew will be reluctant to hand out such an agreement to their stud first baseman, and instead invest those funds in rebuilding their barren far system, decimated by their recent trades for Sabathia and Zack Greinke.

What It All Means

The MacPhail-led Baltimore Orioles have taken on a new persona in recent years, as owner Peter Angelos has given his GM a little room as far as setting the direction of the club (but only a little).  Under MacPhail’s leadership, the franchise has transformed its philosophy, shifting away from the fantasy baseball aspect of signing high-priced free agents to a scouting and development perspective that has produced several solid players and prospects through both the Rule 4 draft and trades.

But the Orioles are not Tampa Bay, and they are not Cleveland or Oakland.  This team inhabits a fan-crazed city with great tradition, and is not without vast resources, both from its market and its owner.  A winning product on the field will surely translate to box office success (Baltimore averaged more than 40,000 fans per night in each of Camden Yards’ first nine years in existence).

I believe Baltimore to be more like the Angels, a franchise that complements its strong minor league talent base with free agents that allow it to compete for World Series titles.  Prince Fielder would be exactly the type of free agent that would put the Orioles on the map as a serious contender to get out of the rut of the AL East basement and really challenges the traditional beasts of the East.  The only question now is whether the Baltimore front office has the stones to make this type of addition. 

Your move, Mr. MacPhail.

Week 3 Review: Minnesota Twins

This is the 4^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Record for the week of April 15-22: 4-4

Overall record: 8-12

• Don’t jump off a bridge, Twins fans, as tempting as that may be.  And trust me; this is coming from someone who absolutely develops as defeatist attitude when things go south.  Look, I get it.  Another really bad week, and there’s no clear end in sight.  14 road games, a league-low 6 home games.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Delmon Young are all sick and recovering.   The team has turned from defending AL Central champions into also-rans (and has set the all-time record for consecutive games of scoring 5 of fewer runs at 19).  But fear not: as I prognosticated, the Twins were given no favors with their early season schedule, so a slow start was predictable.  Division titles are rarely lost in April, and the deficit will not be insurmountable so as to prevent the Twins from challenging for the Central once again.  Oh, and the White Sox?  Tied with them.  And Cleveland and Kansas City are outperforming expectations, and figure to come back to the pack over a 162-game campaign.  Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Minnesota to this point.  The law of averages has to kick in at some point, and this Twins figures to perform much better as the season goes along.

The answer at SS for the Birds?

• For those of you (like me) who saw J.J. Hardy’s clutch-hitting start with Baltimore and were wondering aloud “remind me again why we traded him?”, our answer is twofold.  First of all, Hardy played just 101 games for Minnesota last year due to injuries.  Thus, his current stint on the Disabled List is no surprise.  While he played well while healthy, displaying Gold Glove-caliber defense and providing adequate offense out of the #9 spot, the Twins couldn’t live with his oft-injured status.  And secondly, his salary was just too high for a team going into year 1 of Joe Mauer’s massive $23-million-per-year contract extension and needing to save money in other areas.  Hardy is making $5.85 million this season in what is a contract year, while his replacement, Alexi Casilla, is making just $875,000 this year, according to Baseball Reference.  I loved the trade that brought Hardy here, I enjoyed his time as a Twin, and I was disappointed to see him go for what didn’t appear to be much in return from Baltimore.  But in light of his recent trip to the DL, it’s certainly understandable, if not condoned.

Jim Hoey: the power reliever the Twins have been missing?

• Speaking of the return in the trade for Hardy, I got to see reliever Jim Hoey in person on Monday night, and I gotta say, I was extremely impressed with what I saw.  He had a real lively fastball that was clocked at 96-98, and he mixed that in with a changeup in the area of 82-85 mph that completely flummoxed the Baltimore Oriole hitters facing him.  He retired all 4 hitters he faced that night, including escaping a 2-on, 2-out jam after the Orioles had scored 2 runs to cut the Twins’ lead to 3-2.  The Twins have revamped their bullpen constantly in recent weeks due to injury (Kevin Slowey is on the DL) and ineffectiveness (Alex Burnett and Jeff Manship have been replaced by Hoey and Eric Hacker), and it definitely would behoove the team if Hoey can continue to pitch well.  He was not nearly as effective in his last appearance (hits allowed to both hitters he faced), but Hoey has the type of live power arm the Twins direly need in their ‘pen, as I called for in this blog post.  Hoey’s issue has always been control, as his major league stats indicate (23 career walks versus just 24 strikeouts).  If he can command his pitches successfully and consistently, look out.  And of course, if anyone can stabilize a staff and work with young pitchers with potential, it’s Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson, and I look forward to seeing Hoey progress into a go-to late-inning option as the 2011 season rolls along.

Jason Repko, as fine a 4th OF as a team could ask for.

• In case number 2 of “The Twins may have read my blog and listened to my advice,” I had indicated in my post last week that for this team to be more efficient and consistent in scoring runs, they needed to add speed to the lineup and utilize it effectively to  manufacture cheap runs.  That was no more evident than in Saturday’s 10-3 win over Cleveland.  Denard Span’s perfect hitting on a hit-and-run situation put runners on 1^st and 3^rd in the 3^rd inning, helping lead to a 3-run inning.  Jason Repko followed with an infield hit, and then scored from 1^st on a double by Jason Kubel even though ball was cut off in the outfield.  Repko is invaluable as a speedy outfielder with pop off the bench for the Twins, and absolutely can fill in over a short period of time for Delmon Young, who simply doesn’t have that same element of speed and strong defense that Repko brings.  Additionally, Repko laid down a sacrifice bunt that helped facilitate a 2^nd 3-run inning in the 5^th, and the Twins also stole a pair of bases, with the latter coming into score on a sacrifice fly.  The adding of speed to the lineup, combined with the capability of simply doing the little things to win games, played a big difference in today’s win over Cleveland, and will help the Twins going forward as they look to get back into the AL Central race.

The AL Rookie of the Year fave.

• One last note: I watched Jeremy Hellickson, a Rookie of the Year candidate for Tampa Bay, against the Twins last Sunday afternoon, paying particular attention to his pitch selection.  He literally threw nothing but fastballs and changeups until introducing his curveball in the 5^th inning.  His fastball wasn’t especially electric, as it stayed mostly in the 89-90 mph range.  But when combined with a 77-mph changeup, he had Twins hitters flailing.  This kid appears to have good poise and makeup for a young pitcher, and it certainly appears I didn’t make him my ROY pick in vain.  It stands to reason that the Rays made the right choice in trading former Twin Matt Garza in the offseason.

Looking Ahead

• Minnesota caught a huge break with Friday night’s game against Cleveland being rained out, as it allowed one extra day for Justin Morneau to get his strength up enough to return to the lineup following a 5-game absence.  And they capitalized on his return in a huge way, as he was a big reason in the Twins breaking the 5-run mark for the first time this season in the aforementioned blowout win over the Indians.  Cleveland is in town for one more day game for this abbreviated 2-game series, and following Wednesday’s off-day, Tampa Bay’s improved club comes to the Twin Cities for a 3-game set.  The Twins miss Rays ace David Price for the 2^nd consecutive series, but will face Hellickson in Thursday’s matinee game.  It marks the final series of a month filled with AL East matchups, and the Twins are probably excited to get into a more AL-Central-laden part of the schedule.

NBA Playoffs, 1st Round Thoughts and Predictions

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers

Regular season results: Bulls won 3-1

Key matchup: Bulls PG Derrick Rose vs. the scary clowns that Pacers fans will dress up as in the stands

Thoughts: No, really.  Rose actually said this week that he’s afraid of clowns, Unfortunately for Indiana, that’s about all that will be compelling in this series, as the Bulls should put them away quickly and quietly.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers

Regular season results: Heat won 3-0

Key matchup: Sixers F Andre Iguodala/G Jrue Holiday vs. Heat F LeBron James/G Dwyane Wade

Thoughts:  Iguodala has made himself into arguably the best perimeter defender in the league this season, and Holiday has been elite since coming into the league last year.  They have the goods to stick with LeDwayne.  Unfortunately, they don’t score enough points to remain competitive, and those quick 10-2 runs Miami can get on with ease will not be matched by the slower, plodding Sixers.  And Iguodala and PG Lou Williams are both questionable with injuries heading into the series, not helping the Sixers’ cause.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks

Regular season results: Celtics won 4-0

Key matchup: Celtics PG Rajon Rondo vs. himself

Thoughts: For some reason, this is a fashionable upset pick among fans.  The fans look at the two stars that have aligned in the Big Apple in C Amar’e Stoudemire and F Carmelo Anthony and think, wow, this team is going to beat an older, weaker Celtics team.  Fortunately, cooler heads prevail among experts, and most think the battle-tested C’s will at least have enough in the tank to dispatch the upstart Knickerbockers.  Rondo averaged 17 assists per game against New York this season, and is a complete mismatch against the Knicks’ (lack-of) D.  But Rondo also has been an emotional wreck since his best friend PF Kendrick Perkins was traded to Oklahoma City, and it has reflected in his and his team’s play (14-11 to end the regular season post-trade).  Make no mistake: Boston goes as their precocious point guard goes, and they did not inspire a great deal of confidence down the stretch this season.  But New York’s complete aversion to playing defense will allow Rondo to get into the paint at will and wreak havoc, and the C’s will be just fine in Round 1.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

Regular season results: Hawks won 3-1

Key matchup: Magic C Dwight Howard vs. Hawks C Jason Collins

Thoughts: Howard shoots 48% from the field against Atlanta, the lowest against any opponent.  And much of that defensive credit goes to lightly-used Hawks backup C Jason Collins, whose lone purpose in the NBA seems to be as a Dwight-stopper.  The Hawks actually won the season series against Orlando, but the absolute beatdown that took place in last year’s 2^nd round (Orlando swept the series, winning each game by an average of more than 25 points) still looms large.  This series should be much more competitive, but Orlando has the best player in the series, and should he act like it, I like Orlando to barely squeak by and advance to Round 2.

Prediction: Magic in 7

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Regular season results: Tied 2-2

Key matchup: Grizzlies PF Zack Randolph vs. the interior San Antonio defense

Thoughts: The Spurs’ championship chances hinge on the health of their Big 3 of PF Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili, and right now Ginobili is afflicted with a hyper-extended right (non-shooting) elbow that could keep him out of Game 1 of this series.  This also is an intriguing upset pick among some in the public.  I don’t buy it.  I do have Memphis taking 2 games in the series, and Randolph has dominated San Antonio this year.  But the 2-2 split this season is a little misleading due to games missed by the aforementioned stellar Spurs trio, and this loaded team has too much experience, swagger, and 3-point shooting ability to get bounced by an upstart Grizz team missing its best player (SG Rudy Gay).

Prediction: Spurs in 6

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

Regular season results: Lakers won 4-0

Key matchup: Hornets PG Chris Paul vs. the Lakers entire team

Thoughts: The above matchup is basically what it comes down to, as Paul is about all the Hornets have to get excited about, and even he has been battling a chronic knee injury (check out the brace he wears on his knee, it is massive).  L.A. does get killed routinely by great point guards, but Paul simply does not have the help around him to even make this series competitive, especially given the regrettable loss of PF David West to a torn ACL just 3 weeks ago.  It’s been a nice comeback year for New Orleans as they returned to the playoffs, but their run will be short.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers

Regular season results: Tied 2-2

Key matchup: PF Dirk Nowitzki vs. Blazers SF Gerald Wallace

Thoughts: The other fun upset to pick, and this time, I do buy it.  The Blazers’ top 7 players can play with anyone in the league, and the absolute theft of Wallace from Charlotte at the trade deadline as transformed the look and confidence of this Blazer team.  Rick Carlisle deserves a ton of credit for the coaching job he’s done with this Maverick club, as he has pushed all the right buttons (save for calling his players soft) and maximized the abilities of his Dallas team.  But Wallace and the other perimeter defenders will give Dirk fits, and I like Portland to upset Dallas in this series.  One word of caution: Portland is a poor shooting team, and an extended funk against a quality defensive team like Dallas could be their undoing.  Fortunately, PF LaMarcus Aldridge is a budding All-Star coming off an outstanding campaign, and he could nullify any shooting problems the Blazers have if he’s given room to operate in the low post (average 29 points, 10 rebounds, 52% shooting against Dallas this season).

Prediction: Blazers in 6.  You heard me.

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets

Regular season results: Thunder won 3-1

Key matchup: Thunder C Kendrick Perkins vs. Nuggets PF Nene

Thoughts: This could easily be the most fun of any first-round series, as both teams are high flyers that like to run and get up and down and spread the floor.  Denver is getting a lot of hype as a first-round upset choice, and I do believe this team is a legit threat to any team in the conference, as they finished the season 18-7 post-Carmelo Anthony trade.  But this Thunder team is a bad matchup for them, as Oklahoma City features easily the best 2 players in the series, and a new-found confidence permeates throughout this team following the addition of Perkins.  And Perkins vs. Nene will be awesome to watch, as they nearly came to blows twice in the final two regular-season meetings between the teams.  The team-first, no-distractions play of Denver has been inspiring over the season’s final 25 games, and they will push OKC to the limit.  But the young Thunder survive in tough, hard-fought 7-game series, as Durant, Westbrook and Co. win their first playoff series as a group.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

Week 2 Review: Minnesota Twins

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

This is the 3^rd edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Record for the week of April 8-14: 2-4

Overall record: 4-8

• This column was pretty glaring as to the issues with this club so far.  Here are a few additional offensive stats for you, as a follow-up to the column: this team has scored 36 runs in 12 games, the fewest in the major leagues, and has yet to score more than 5 runs in any game.  Entering Thursday’s play, the Twins also have the lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the majors at .589 (next closest: .601), the fewest extra-base hits in the league with a meager 24, and the fewest homers with only 3 (next lowest: 6).   Oh, and it’s not like they’re being patient at the plate either, drawing a league-low 25 walks.   And now we have writers questioning Mauer and Morneau.  Yikes.  You don’t have to look much farther than the offense to guess as to what most ails this 4-7 Minnesota team.

Missing in action.

• Speaking of Mauer, it just looked like something had been wrong with him this entire season, and he has now been diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness, which ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell describes as a "very unusual" injury.  Apparently the leg injury has been caused by overcompensating for nagging pains in his upper body, including his shoulder and elbow.  Some guy named Steve Holm was called up in Mauer's stead, and Mauer as of now is expected to miss just 2 weeks.  Here's hoping.  As if the Twins really needed this right now

• The pitching hasn’t exactly been stellar either, and the above column pointed this out quite acutely.  The notoriously-strong control this pitching staff as displayed over the last decade has not been prevalent thus far in the 2011 season, as a staff famous for limiting its free passes has not so far, posting a 3.64 walk rate (walks per 9 innings), 24^th out of 30 MLB teams.  This is of particular concern because…

• … Infield defense has also been brutal, and just because Tsuyoshi Nishioka struggled a bit when he was healthy, don’t think for a second that the infield D is actually better with him out.  Fill-in SS Matt Tolbert made a bone-headed error in the 1^st inning of Wednesday’s loss to Kansas City, and overall, the infield is responsible for 7 of the 8 errors Minnesota as committed so far (that’s tied for 8^th in the league).  For a pitching staff that, aside from Francisco Liriano, greatly relies on their defense to perform behind them, this is a disturbing trend.  Jonah Keri detailed this before the season started, so it’s not like this is a new phenomenon.  But it’s not good, and here’s hoping Nishioka can be part of the problem when he returns.

• Speaking of Nishioka, the injury he sustained in last Thursday’s game against the Yankees was considerably more minor than was originally thought, as he suffered just a small break in his fibula, won’t need surgery, and could return by the middle of May.  This is welcome news, as the injury easily could have been much worse, and the Twins need his improving defense and ability to handle the bat in the #2 spot in the order.

Hey Bill Smith, call this kid up!

• Touching back on the offense, I can’t help but think this team is fatally-flawed.  The Twins competed in 2006 and 2008 with offenses that not only could beat you with power and clutch-hitting, but with speed as well.  As the old mantra goes, speed never goes into a slump.  The lineup has very little speed to speak of, as only CF Denard Span and SS Alexi Casilla are healthy and quick enough (and play regularly enough) to wreak havoc on the basepaths, but neither have made any impact there whatsoever (Span has 2 steals and the injured Nishioka has 1).  Without players that can reach base on infield hits, or take extra bases once on base, the lineup is much more vulnerable to a slump.  And we’re seeing that now, as pretty much every single Twins hitter is struggling at the outset of the 2011 season.  As a result, don’t be surprised to see OF Ben Revere, 2-time Twins Minor League Player of the Year, in the big leagues soon.  Revere stole 44 and 45 bases in the 2008 and 2009 season, respectively, but didn’t hit much in his brief cup of coffee in the majors last season (5 hits and 2 walks in 30 plate appearances, one caught stealing).  However, Revere has hit at every minor league level, including posting an impressive .930 OPS (with a .433 on-base) in Class A ball in ’08.  He could make more of an impact on the Twins team than people realize right now, if the organization lets him.  The Twins don’t have to go back into full-time Piranha mode from years past, relying on speed more than power to score.  But not at least channeling this mind-set through the utilization of the speedy players on the bases could be the Achilles ’ heel of the Twins’ bid to three-peat as AL Central champions.

Siiiiiigh.

• “Not everything has gone wrong though, as I would like to point out the MVP of the Twins season thus far: Matt Capps.  I’ve personally dubbed him the Firefighter, for his ability to put out fires at the most opportune time for Minnesota.  He has rescued the Twins on more than one occasion, being the difference-maker in 3 of the Twins’ 4 victories.  Thus far he’s allowed just 3 hits and 1 run over his 6 2/3 innings (5 appearances), but his stats don’t explain the impact he’s had.  He came on with runners at 1^st and 2^nd and nobody out with the Twins clinging to a 3-2 lead.  A sac bunt, weak groundout, and fly out later, and the Twins were out of the inning.  He threw 2 innings of a tie game at Yankee Stadium following an improbable 4-run Twins inning to enable an equally-unlikely Twins win, and he wiggles out of a 1^st-and-3^rd, 1-out jam in a tie game against Kansas City with a pop up and strikeout, another game the Twins would eventually win.  It’s safe to say that without Capps, this team would be 1-10 right now.”

Yup, I really wrote of all that yesterday.  Prior to last night’s debacle of a loss.  Sometimes I hate baseball.  One of those times is right now.

Alexi Ogando, exactly the type of player the Twins need, and don't have.

• Speaking of Capps, here’s another problem I have with the Twins’ front-office: their complete lack of faith in power arms, eschewing them in favor of softer-tossing strike-throwers.  Don’t get me wrong, this philosophy isn’t all bad; the Twins have led the American League in fewest walks in 6 of the past 7 seasons.    But I look at a team like Texas, who reached the World Series in 2010.  They had nothing but electric arms in their bullpen, including Alexi Ogando and closer Neftali Feliz who regularly can reach 99 MPH on the radar gun.  What makes these guys so tough?  Look no further than their strikeout rates (strikeouts per 9 innings, or K/9): Feliz was at a ridiculous 11.32 in 2009 in 31 innings, and following last year’s full season of 69.1 innings, he finished at a 9.22 K/9.  In 41 innings last year, Ogando posted an 8.42 K-rate, following a 2010 Class AAA K-rate of over 12, forcing his call-up to the bigs.  The best K-rate posted by a Twins reliever last season?  A solid 8.21 by Jesse Crain (who now pitches for the rival White Sox), except that was his career year, as he had never posted a strikeout rate better than 7.49 prior to last season.  Capps, while having amazing success this season, also has never posted a K-rate better than 7.62.  In recent years, we’ve seen a trend that championship-contending clubs boast bullpens of flamethrowers, piling up strikeouts that lessen the impact of a defense behind the pitcher.  Granted, Joe Nathan posted consecutive seasons of 12+ K-rates.  But that was pre-Tommy John surgery Joe Nathan, and his stuff hasn’t exactly been electric so far this year (though I still have hope that he’ll get it back as the year goes on).  But without a stable of hard-throwers in the back end of the ‘pen, a team doesn’t figure to have postseason success, and the Twins unfortunately fall into this category.

• Looking ahead, things don’t get any easier, as 3 more games in Tampa are followed by a 4-game series at Camden Yards against the upstart Orioles.  Nick Blackburn will make 2 starts over that span, which is a boon for Minnesota given his outstanding start (0.77 ERA over 11 2/3 innings so far).  He’ll need to be on his game, as the offense looks to find its footing without its All-Star catcher for at least the next 2 weeks.