Minnesota Twins Week 13: The Regression

This is the 8^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Record: 34-45

• The skid

An indicative depiction of the 6-game losing streak.

Well, I guess Karma’s a bitch.  What goes around comes around.  Whatever phrase you choose to symbolize the Twins’ recent plight, the facts are the same: following a 15-2 stretch in which Minnesota clipped an amazing 10 games off their deficit trailing American League Central Division leader Cleveland (from 16.5 games to 6.5 games), the team immediately followed an 8-game winning streak with a losing skid of 6 consecutive games.  Following a 9-2 win in San Francisco that featured an astounding 8 success hits to begin a 6-game road trip, the Twins immediately lost out through the rest of the trip (the remaining 2 games in San Francisco, all 3 in Milwaukee), and were promptly greeted by the vicious bats of the Dodger outfield upon their return to their home digs (OFs Tony Gwynn, Matt Kemp, and Trent Oeltjen combined to finish the game 12-for-15 with a double, a triple, 2 home runs, 5 RBI, 7 runs scored) as Los Angeles pounded the Twins into submission with 25 hits and a 15-0 win.  Oh, and LF Delmon Young was lost to an ankle injury that fortunately seems minor.  The team rebounded nicely to take the final 2 games of the series against the Dodgers.  But just when you think the jury is in when it comes to Minnesota’s prospects of AL Central title contention, the losing streak causes one to reevaluate this notion.  I’m just as confused as ever on what to think, but given this franchise’s penchant for epic comebacks (2006 and 2009) and incredible late-season drama (2008 and 2009), it’s a fool’s errand to give up on the Minnesota Twins’ chances to win the AL Central until mathematics force our hand.

Why did the losing begin all of a sudden?  It’s not hard to figure out why.  Check out pitching splits:

Date	G	CG	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
Jun 2-21	17	3	15-2	153	137	40	32	28	104	8	1.88	1.08	8.06	0.47	1.65	6.12	3.71
Jun 22-27	6	0	0-6	49	73	43	38	18	35	8	6.98	1.86	13.4	1.47	3.31	6.43	1.94

So let’s see: when the pitching staff’s allowing nearly an extra baserunner per inning, more than 50% more hits, twice as many walks, and its home run rate and ERA more than triple, it generally is more difficult to win.  Interestingly, the team’s strikeout rate actually went up.  But clearly that made no difference as the team once again stumbled backward.

What’s also intriguing is that the during the winning streak, as a team, the Twins produced a cumulative hitting line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) of .273/.320/.402, which equates favorably to the averages the Baltimore Orioles (.259/.322/.400) have produced for the season (and which ranks 20^th out of 30 major league teams).  So even though Minnesota had done a lot of winning lately, the hitting woes that have plagued the team all season long really were not alleviated much during that win streak.  And of course, as the team crashed and burned over the 6-game malaise, its hitting line plunged badly to .187/.245/.244.  When you can’t pitch or hit, you’re not going to win very many ballgames.

Speaking of disappointing offensive performers…

• Danny Valencia’s sophomore slump

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In my season-opening column, one of the themes I would be paying attention to was the progress of my favorite current Twin, the gregarious and affable 3B Danny Valencia.  The affectionately-called Danny V (pretty sure I’m the only person who calls him that, but I don’t care) produced an outstanding hitting line of .311/.351/.448 while hitting 7 homers, 40 RBI, and 18 doubles in 85 games, and placing 3^rd in the Rookie of the Year balloting in 2010.  He was one of a great many Twins who were called upon to fill holes on the major league roster throughout the year, and all he did was solidify the 3^rd base position for the 1^st time since Corey Koskie held the job in 2004.

Regrettably, his sophomore campaign has not treated Valencia quite as nicely.  While his power production remains relatively the same over 77 games thus far (8 homers, 36 RBI, 14 doubles), his hitting line has dramatically fallen off to just .218/.272/.359.  Injuries have forced him to hit 4^th and 5^th in the lineup at times, but that speaks much more to the lack of organizational depth than it does of any renewed faith in Valencia.

Also disappointing has been Valencia’s regressing in the field.  Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved Above Average (Rdrs) is a measure of the number of runs a player saves relative to the number of plays that player makes.  Valencia saved 2 runs above average last season in 85 games; so far in 77 games this year, that mark has slipped to 11 games below average.  Danny has also committed more errors this year (8) than last year (6).

I still have a lot of hope that Valencia can be the everyday 3^rd baseman in the long term.  I really like his swing, and as he continues to adjust at the major league level, he should become more reliable and improve his hitting line.  I love his attitude as well, and he’s very capable of making the great defensive play at 3^rd.  Now he just needs to continue playing and staying focused, and he’ll get back to last year’s level of production.  So far this year he’s been one of a long line of Twins who’ve either been hurt or have underachieved.  Hopefully over a full season, things will even out, and Valencia’s production will improve.

• Joe Mauer

There hasn't been a whole lot of positive mojo surrounding #7 these day.

Alas, no Twins blog would be complete without touching on the player with the most lucrative contact in franchise history (by miles and miles), and the -highest in the league.  Despite his 2009 MVP campaign and three American League batting titles (one more than the combined total at the catcher position in major league baseball history), catcher Joe Mauer was in the news for all the wrong reasons this week.  First, lefty reliever Jose Mijares challenged him in the dugout about his pitch-calling during the defining at-bat of last Friday night’s contest in Milwaukee, a go-ahead 2-run double by superstar Brewers 1B Prince Fielder off Mijares that provided Milwaukee with their eventual 4-3 win. 

Next, local columnist Jim Souhan took a shot at him, claiming that with 1B Justin Morneau out for much of the next 2 months, Mauer needs to step up and play first base on days he’s not catching (granted, his argument stating that Mauer sitting forces Luke Hughes to play out of position is futile, given that Mauer would also would be playing out of position at first base, having not played the position in eight years).  Interestingly, that very day, Mauer began taking ground balls at first base, seemingly on cue. 

That consequently caught the attention of the national media, as ESPN.com columnist Johnette Howard penned her own piece about the frustrations afflicting everyone around this Twins franchise as they come to grips with the fact that Mauer’s demeanor and 2011 production haven’t come close to the $184 million he’s due through 2018 ($23 million per year), and the superstar status that comes with such an agreement.

My take: the $184-million contract is quickly becoming a disaster, and the Twins could really be a world of hurt in a very short period of time.  The fact of the matter is Mauer was signed at the height of his stardom, as he was coming off an MVP season in 2009 in which he produced an incredible batting line of .365/.444/.587 (all of which led the league) in 138 games (he missed the entire first month) while hitting 191 hits, 59 for extra bases (30 doubles, 1 triple, 28 homers), and driving in 96 runs while taking 76 walks and striking out just 63 times, as he won his AL 3^rd batting title in 4 years.  There was simply no way he could repeat those numbers the following season, especially since Minnesota was moving from the quirky confines of the Metrodome to the great, and unknown, outdoors of Target Field.  Unfortunately, the precedent was set, and unrealistic expectations set in from the rabid local fanbase who adored him.

Predictably, Mauer’s numbers came back to earth, as he hit a pedestrian 9 homers and 75 RBI in 137 games (just one fewer than in 2009), yet his batting line of .327/.402/.469 was very close to his career averages of .324/.404/.476.  Still, while the media harped on his decline in production, the local fanbase, ever loyal throughout their history, remain steadfast in their faithful support of their hometown hero.

Fast forward to this spring: coming off knee surgery (his 3^rd major surgery in his career), Mauer misses the first half of spring training, then hurriedly tries to be ready for the regular season (quite possibly due organizational pressure).  He stumbles badly out of the gate with a hitting line of .235/.289/.265 with just 1 extra base hit and 4 RBI in 9 games.  Not coincidentally, he has been playing hurt the whole time, and is diagnosed with “bilateral leg weakness”, causing all of Twins Territory to throw up their hands in disgust, perplexed at not only the diagnosis, but also with the realization that their homegrown star will be out indefinitely.

Finally, after 2 months, #7 returns to the lineup.  Yet something is conspicuously missing: even remotely capable production at the plate.  Mauer’s hitting line has actually descended even farther, to a derisory .195/.233/.268, 3 doubles, 3 RBI, and just 2 walks in 10 games.  I championed Joe as “the Captain of the ground ball to second base” pre-DL stint, and disappointingly, he’s still that guy post-DL.  Now the questions have begun: is he still hurt?  Is he simply being a wimp?  Is just not that tough?  Is it no longer a question of merely if, but when, will he change positions?  How will this affect the rest of the roster?  Is clubhouse morale really that bad, despite the charisma and down-to-earth attitude Mauer has always exhibited?  The Twins organization has never been faced with a quandary this dire before, simply because the monetary ramifications have never been this extreme.

At the beginning of decade, after a long run of futility in the 1990’s following the 1991 World Series win, Minnesota was finally beginning to realize the boons of their drafting from years previous.  Youthful potential stars like CF Torii Hunter, overachievers like 2B Luis Rivas and 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, and solid role players like 3B Corey Koskie, SS Christian Guzman, and LF Jacque Jones had finally reached the major leagues, and the franchise was becoming relevant and exciting once again.  Nearing the conclusion of a magical 2002 campaign, a new collective bargaining agreement was added, and a new revenue sharing model had been introduced which redistributed the league’s resources from its rich (the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs, etc.) to the downtrodden who had absolutely no ability to compete prior to the agreement (the Twins, Royals, Pirates, etc.).  The Twins escaped from contraction with a renewed passion for Minnesota baseball, and a few years later, were granted with the marvel that has become Target Field, which has created unprecedented revenue windfall that has transformed the franchise into one of its lowest spenders (24^th in payroll in 2009) to one of its highest (11^th in 2010). 

And of course, along that line of thinking, Twins brass believed that signing Mauer to a long-term deal was in their best interest, fiduciary responsibility be damned.  They were entering uncharted territory as far as they were concerned, about to reap new revenue streams never possible with the previous dump… er… stadium.  And to an extent, they were right.  Of bigger concern at the time, at least to me, was the never-before-seen backlash that would have resulted from letting this popular a player leave town.  Mauer was Minnesota born-and-bred, a St. Paul native, a Cretin-Derham Hall graduate, 3-sport All-State player, the Natural himself.  He was born to play baseball, and he was to never leave Minnesota, no matter what the cost.  The pressure to sign him was too great to ignore.

But former GM Terry Ryan had always operated within his means, signing and developing players within the Twins way, and once they reached a level production and cost that exceed the Twins’ budget, they were let go in search of greener pastures, while the next player in the chain took his spot.  The notoriously thrifty Twins never gave an exorbitant contract to a player, from within or outside the organization, and the franchise was better for it in the long term, despite the short-term ill-will it caused its eternally loyal fanbase.

Alas that all changed with Mauer, who now stands to make more than 20% of the team’s current payroll, which now ranks 9^th in the league.  His $23 million-per-year pact has already dramatically affected the team’s roster management, as four relievers (Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, and Brian Fuentes) were allowed to leave, and starting shortstop J.J. Hardy was traded to Baltimore in what was effectively a salary dump, while Alexi Casilla was suddenly installed as the everyday shortstop.  And yet, the payroll still increased by $15 million!

The Twins’ front office made a calculated move in awarding Mauer with this lucrative extension, betting that Mauer’s production would remain at or above his past performance, while the organizational value he provided as the face of the franchise would keep fans coming to the park and continue to open up more and more revenue capabilities.  That has backfired badly very early in the life of the contract, and now it appears the organization has finally recognized that Mauer may need to change positions.  This is a crippling development, as the justification behind the contract was that Mauer would be the catcher throughout, where his value is far and away the highest.  The Twins exacerbated the situation by trading both stud prospect Wilson Ramos in the Matt Capps deal last summer, as well as backup Jose Morales, opening a gaping wound at the catcher position which I detailed in this column.

Only time will tell if this situation can be resolved without drastic measure (a Justin Morneau trade to open up first base for Mauer, anyone?).  But this is the textbook example of an organization, and a young GM, falling victim to fan pressure, leading to buyer beware.  Bill Smith had no choice; if he let Mauer go for 2 measly drafted picks while the hometown catcher to his talents to the Bronx or Beantown, rioting would have taken place in the streets of Minneapolis, and Smith would have been burned at the stake (figuratively of course… well, maybe).  And now the soap opera has arrived, with no telling when the curtain will close.

Finally, to conclude with a more positive tidbit:

• Joe Nathan’s return

More of these reactions, please.

The under-the-radar news of the week (in light of the Mauer mess) was the return of former All-Star closer Joe Nathan to the Twins’ bullpen, with a rediscovered fastball he made judicious use of in his dominant 8^th inning of work in Tuesday’s 6-4 win over Los Angeles.  This is an exceptionally important development for the 2011 Twins, who’ve had far and away their most glaring struggles in the bullpen.  Nathan was a big part of the ‘pen’s collapse, posting a 7.63 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in the season’s first 2 months while allowing 27 baserunners in just 15 1/3 innings.  But Nathan fanned a pair of Dodger hitters in the aforementioned perfect outing, showing renewed faith in his fastball.  As Nathan described in the article, his success has always been predicated on his fastball, which he uses to set up his breaking pitchers.  While the velocity was there earlier in the season, the command wasn’t, which is common for pitchers one year removed from Tommy John surgery, and certainly not surprising for a 36-year-old.  But at least for one outing, Nathan’s command was sharp; should this continue, the troubled and overworked back-end of the Twins’ relief corps would be greatly fortified, and make the Twins much more threatening to the other contenders in the AL Central division.

• Looking ahead

It's never fun pitching against this guy, no matter where you play.

Interleague play concludes this weekend with a 3-game set against Milwaukee, whom the Twins were swept by last weekend.  Interleague was not as kind to the Twins as I’d hope, who stand to finish at below .500 against the National League for the 2^nd consecutive year (just 6-9 this year).  Following that, the Twins close out the 3-series homestand with 3 games against nemesis Tampa Bay (against whom the Twins are 1-6 this year), and end the 2011 season’s first half with a 4-game set on the South Side of Chicago against the rival White Sox.  Amazingly, the Twins are 28-7 in their last 35 contests with the South Siders, and will look to solidify that mark heading into the All-Star Break.  In my next column I will detail what went right in my April predictions and what went (so horribly, horribly) wrong, while also revising those predictions for the rest of the season.  Look for that right around the conclusion of the festivities in Phoenix, on Wednesday or Thursday, July 13 or 14.  Stay tuned!