Eastern Conference
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
Regular season results: Bulls won 2-1
Key matchup: Bulls PG Derrick Rose vs. Hawks PG Jamal Crawford
Thoughts: This arguably is an easier matchup for Chicago than in their first round series vs. Indiana. It has often been said that the Bulls have one gear. They always go all-out, full-tilt, on every possession, in every game. Their best player, probable MVP PG Derrick Rose, as well as bigs Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson, are all max-effort players that don’t know how to take a possession off. Contrast that with the talent-rich yet effort-challenged Atlanta roster, and it would be quite a shock if the Hawks really competed in this series. At times, their first-round series vs. Orlando was downright unwatchable, as both teams settled for contested long 2-pointers and 3’s early in the shot clock, and didn’t seem all that interested to even be playing. Not a recipe for success against the motivated #1 seed. Atlanta might win one at home thanks to the consistently excellent play of 6th man Jamal Crawford (a team-best 20.5 PPG in the first round vs. Orlando despite averaging just 29.8 MPG, including an outstanding 45.9% from 3-point range), but Chicago will win more close games than they don’t, and should put away the Hawks in 5 games, with a couple of beatdowns thrown in (the 2 Bulls victories over Atlanta this year were by 18 and 33 points, with the latter in Atlanta).
Prediction: Bulls in 5
#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics
Regular season results: Celtics won 3-1
Key matchup: Celtics SF Paul Pierce vs. Heat F LeBron James
Thoughts: The most anticipated of the 2nd round matchups, and quite frankly, this is a battle for the soul of basketball. The contrasts are stark: old-school vs. new-school, blue collar toughness vs. glitz and glamour, the consummate team vs. a collection of 3 talented individuals and a rag-tag group of teammates, the original Big 3 vs. the Unholy Trinity (my favorite nickname for the 3 Miami stars). I still firmly believe that as PG Rajon Rondo goes, so goes Boston, but I’m feeling better about his performance going forward than I did heading into the playoffs, thanks to a dominating 1st round series against an overwhelmed New York Knicks team (19 PPG, 12 APG, 50% FG). Instead, it is the underrated defensive ability of Celtics SF Paul Pierce that is most important to this series, as he will be matched up almost exclusively against arguably the best player in the world, Heat SF LeBron James. According to Basketball Reference, LeBron averages the most points (30.6) and 2nd-most minutes (41.6) against Boston than against any other team. But LeBron has never advanced past Boston in his postseason career, losing in the 2nd round in both 2008 and 2010 as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Obviously his current team is much different than those Cleveland teams, but will the outcome be different? I don’t think so. Miami still has alpha dog issues in terms of whether James will delegate to SG Dwayne Wade or vice versa, and as a result, the Heat have struggled mightily in late-game offensive execution. Boston has much more reliable and consistent crunch time roles, and the old guard survives and advances to the Eastern Conference Finals after an all-out war against Miami.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Western Conference
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Regular season results: Grizzlies won 3-1
Key matchup: Thunder PF/C’s Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka vs. Grizzlies PF/C’s Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol
Thoughts: An intriguing matchup featuring young up-and-coming teams, these 2 teams have the ability to get up and down the floor while also displaying tough-to-handle half court offenses predicated on differing styles. Memphis’ strength lies in the post, where manchild PF Zack Randolph has become a reliable and devastating problem for opponents down low. He is joined by C Marc Gasol, who has such tremendous girth and strength that he shoved around Spurs PF Tim Duncan like a rag doll throughout the Grizz’ first round upset victory. On the other side, Thunder C Kendrick Perkins has the physical ability and mental fortitude to deal with the Grizzly bullies on the inside, and brings a championship pedigree the team had lacked. Teammate PF Serge Ibaka is now free to roam as a devastating weak side shot blocker, and he showed his newfound freedom in the closeout victory over Denver in round 1, blocking 9 shots and having the greatest impact in the game despite scoring just 1 point. The Thunder offensive talents are more of the perimeter variety, as they feature a top-5 player in SF Kevin Durant, and a top-5 point guard with Russell Westbrook. Memphis PG Mike Conley performed brilliantly against Spurs PG Tony Parker in round 1, and must be up to the challenge against Westbrook for Memphis to be competitive in this series. Also fun to watch will be to see how excellent perimeter defenders F’s Tony Allen and Shane Battier try to contain Durant.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks
Regular season results: Lakers won 2-1
Key matchup: Mavericks C Tyson Chandler vs. Lakers C Andrew Bynum
Thoughts: Shockingly, this is the first time these two teams have matched up in the NBA playoffs since 1988. That’s right: Kobe and Dirk have never competed against one another in postseason play, despite the lengthiness of their careers (15 years for Kobe and 13 for Dirk). I picked against Dallas in round 1 in my first round preview column, and it’s very hard to see them beating the two-time defending champions. The most interesting matchup is in the middle, as Chandler has transformed Dallas into a competitive interior defensive team with his length and shot blocking ability. He will be challenged by the strength and crafty scoring talents of Lakers C Andrew Bynum, who remains the key to a Laker 3-peat. One intriguing item this week was the unexpected news that Mavs F Caron Butler may be able to play at some point in the series after having missed the last 52 games of the season following surgery to repair a torn patella tendon in his knee. But head coach Rick Carlisle squashed those rumors yesterday, and the Mavs will go with what they have. Alas, the weakness of the Laker defense is elite point guard play, which Dallas simply does not have with an aging Jason Kidd and backup J.J. Barea. Dallas also will have major problems containing the matchup nightmare that is F Lamar Odom, who F Shawn Marion likely will be given the task of defending for much of the series. All-Star F Dirk Nowitzki will likely be matchup with Lakers All-Star F Pau Gasol for much of the series as well, and the battle between the two savvy 7-footers will be compelling. The other subplot to watch is the health of Lakers future Hall of Fame G Kobe Bryant, who has missed practice between series to ice his sprained left ankle. Bryant would have to be carried off the floor before he ever willingly left, but will any of his movement be compromised? In the end, Los Angeles has too much talent, and their championship mettle will carry them into the Western Conference Finals.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
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