NBA Finals Preview

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

The time has come.

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Regular Season Results: Mavericks won 2-0

Analysis of matchups:

Point Guard

A matchup of old guys.

The ageless wonder marches on, as Jason Kidd’s place in history continues to get more impressive with each passing year and playoff series.  Ranked 2^nd all-time in assists and 3^rd in made 3-pointers, Kidd has evolved from the elite penetrator and distributor that he once was to the knock-down 3-point and free-throw shooter he is today (he shot a career-best 87% from the charity stripe this season) at the advanced age of 38.  His 2-man game with PF Dirk Nowitzki has been unstoppable at times in these playoffs, and was run to perfection in their round 1 series win over Portland.  Kidd, though no longer the athlete he once was, is still unguardable on the fast break, and his passing remains impeccable.  Additionally, Kidd is still a brilliant defender, using his huge and powerful hands to give Kevin Durant fits in the West Finals.  But this is no coincidence: Kidd is a 9-time member of the All-NBA Defensive team (4 1^st-teams, 5 2^nd-teams).  Expect more veteran savvy from this 10-time All-Star in the Finals, as he seeks his 1^st championship.

Mike Bibby is a shell of the player he once was, and we’ll likely not hear much from him in this series.  He hasn’t had a double-digit scoring game in the entire 2011 playoffs, and has scored in double figures just once since March 29.  He’s only taking about 5 shots per game, and making about 25% of them.  Miami’s reliance on its big lineup at the end of games (Wade-James-Miller-Bosh-Haslem) will squeeze Bibby from the rotation more often than not.

Notable advantage: Dallas

Shooting Guard

Our prayers are with you, DeShawn.

While Miami quite clearly possesses a huge advantage in this matchup on both ends of the floor, Dwyane Wade did not look entirely like himself down the stretch of his team’s win over Chicago in the Eastern Finals.  After obliterating Boston for 52.6% shooting from the field in the East semis, Wade’s shooting dipped to just 40.5% shooting against Chicago.  Granted, Chicago is the best defensive team in the NBA, and their team defense is generally effective at stopping an individual superstar.  But if Wade’s injury is affecting him more than he’s letting on, it could impact the flow and effectiveness of the Miami offense, which doesn’t have many options to begin with.

DeShawn Stevenson is a starter in name only, and he is the designated individual defender on the opponent’s best or 2^nd best scorer, depending on that player’s dimensions.  His minutes ramped up to just a shade over 20 a game in the last series, as he was tasked with defending the lightning-quick Russell Westbrook.  Here he gets Wade, who if hindered in anyway by his surgically-repaired shoulder (which he insists is not an issue), Stevenson’s ability to contain Wade will be enhanced.  Any little advantage Dallas can gain will certainly help their cause.  David Thorpe of ESPN, one of the best in the business, believes Wade must be at least 85% healthy for Miami win this series; who am I to doubt him?

Still, let’s be real: Wade would walk through fire if it meant having a chance to win an NBA title, and he would have to be carried off the floor to not be playing 40+ minutes a game in this series.  He will still play at an elite level, and carry his team for the stretches of time in which LeBron or Bosh is sitting or ineffective.  Wade only has one gear: full throttle.  Expect another memorable NBA Finals from him. 

MASSIVE advantage: Miami

Small Forward

Our prayers are with you too, Shawn.

Love him or hate him, here comes LeBron.  Despite all the vitriol spouted his way from the second he uttered those infamous words last July 8 (it had something to do with the words “talents” and “South Beach,” I don’t entirely recall), LeBron’s “Decision” has generated an interest in the NBA not seen since Michael Jordan’s Eff You 1995-96 season (as detailed here by the immortal Michael Wilbon of ESPN).  And here he is, in his 2^nd Finals, back to the NBA’s greatest stage in his 1^st season in south Florida.  And love him or hate him, he’s been just as valuable to the Heat as Dirk Nowitzki has been to the Mavs.  With Wade’s production dropping in the Chicago series, LeBron was given even more responsibility on the offensive end, while also being the crunch-time defender against Derrick Rose, one of the quickest and most explosive off-the-dribble players in the world.  LeBron will now go from defending the electric Rose to perhaps being the crunch-time Dirk stopper, and trust me when I say this: there is no other player in the history of the league who has ever been able to guard all 5 positions on the floor, and do it at an All-NBA 1^st team Defense level (a team which LeBron has been named to 4 different times).  Look, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s the wisest or savviest person alive when it comes to public relations (as Cleveland fans are quick to point out).  But if you don’t think he’s the best player in the world, you’re not paying attention, or simply still have too much malevolence for him and can’t see past that.

Shawn Marion made a big impact for Dallas, dropping a postseason-best 26 points in Dallas’ Game 5 series-clinching win over the Thunder in a playoff-high 40 minutes.  His unorthodox shooting motion and the unusual type of game he plays have been assets for the Mavs, as his runners and floaters within 10 feet have added an interesting wrinkle to the Maverick offense.  He also is a sneaky-good offensive rebounder, and may be a thorn in the side of the Miami defense as this series goes along.  He was very effective as the primary individual defender against Oklahoma City superstar Kevin Durant (Durant had just one game of better-than-50% shooting), but he has a whole new and more daunting mission in Finals, trying to stay in front of the most athletically-gifted player the league has ever seen.  Good luck, Shawn.

Substantial advantage: Miami

Power Forward

Ya know, this looks familiar...

This article outlined just how dominant a postseason Dirk Nowitzki has had this year, and the names he’s being mentioned next to are quite impressive (Jordan, Kobe, Malone, Iverson, Shaq, Olajuwon, Wade, McHale, Kareem).  If you’re unable to read the article, here’s the gist of it: Dirk is good. Really, really good.  How good?  His True Shooting percentage, which adjusts field goal percentage to weight 3’s and free throws differently, is the 4^th highest ever (64%) for players with at least 2 postseason series wins and a 25-point-per-game average.  But perhaps even more impressively, Dirk’s usage rate, which measures the quantity of possessions a player uses, is considerably higher than any of those of those 3 players’ postseasons.  Moral of the story: it is beyond remarkable that one player is relied upon so much for a team’s offense, yet is scoring as efficiently as he is.  Throw in his incredible free throw percentage (the much-ballyhooed 24-24 performance of Game 1 of the West Finals, 92.9% this postseason, 3 consecutive postseasons of 90+%), and Dirk has become downright unguardable.

Tasked with defending the 7-foot German will likely be four different Miami Heat defenders, and PF Chris Bosh will certainly get his fair share of chances.  I expect backup PF Udonis Haslem to get the lion’s share of this assignment, but Bosh is longer than Haslem and may have a better chance of at least bothering Dirk from time to time.  Offensively, simply going from Kevin Garnett to anyone Chicago threw at him was a tremendous boon to Bosh, who saw his points (12.8 to 23.2) and field goal percentage (40.4% to 60%) spike from the Boston matchup in the East semis to the Chicago series in the East finals.  He’s become more assertive offensively, growing in confidence with each game, and has become the reliable 3^rd scoring option Miami has needed to advance to the NBA Finals.  Bosh’s role could be enhanced further in this series; he enjoys a considerable quickness advantage against Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood, who will check him defensively most of the time.  Chandler and Haywood will be forced to stray to places on the floor where they are not quite as comfortable, improving Miami’s offensive potential.  Don’t expect Bosh’s production to drop off much from the Chicago series; Dirk may have to switch on to him at times, which is energy Dirk can ill-afford to spend on defense, given how much he’s relied upon offensively.  Still, it’s not difficult to see who has the advantage in this matchup.

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Center

There should be a lot of grimacing in the Finals.

This is one of the more underrated matchups of the Finals.  While neither Miami’s Joel Anthony nor Tyson Chandler of the Mavericks will be confused with Hakeem Olajuwon, both play key roles for their respective teams, providing toughness, energy, interior defense, and rebounding on both ends of the floor.  Chandler’s length has frustrated penetrators and slashers trying to get to the rim, and he has the short-area quickness to recover to his man if the penetrator/slasher is forced to pass.  In addition, one huge key to this series will be rebounding and second-chance points.  How was Dirk set up for his go-ahead 3-pointer at the very end of the Game 5 series-clinching win over the Thunder?  An offensive rebound.   One reason is Dirk so effective is that he often draws a bigger, more physical defender to him on the perimeter, leaving a smaller, less hard-nosed player to box out a Marion, a Chandler, or a Haywood inside, creating 2^nd chances for the Dallas offense.  Chandler and Marion were particularly effective against Oklahoma City with this tactic, and any easy points Dallas can get will make things a lot easier for them as they operate their half-court offense.

Conversely, Anthony’s supplanting of Zydrunas Ilgauskas early in the postseason has worked wonders for the Miami lineup.  Like Chandler, he’s a minimal offensive threat, living primarily on tip-ins and put-backs.  But he’s worked diligently to be an above-average post defender, and will play a large role in keeping Dallas’ offensive rebounding in check.

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Bench

I believe in these guys.

The disparity between the effectiveness of the benches of these two teams has narrowed considerably since the start of the postseason.  Don’t get me wrong; Dallas is much deeper.  But Udonis Haslem single-handedly changed the complexion of the East Finals, and adds much-needed front-line depth and energy for a Heat team desperate for size.  Haslem figures to be only bench player to play big minutes for Miami, and probably will see extensive time defending Dirk, maybe even into crunch-time.  Neither Bibby nor backup PG Mario Chalmers provide much of an impact on either end of the floor, and combined for just 35 minutes in the Game 5 clincher against Chicago.  And Mike Miller, who was recently reported as having played with a ruptured thumb for the past month, rarely has made much of an impact in any game this postseason (10.1 mpg, 2.2 ppg, 21.1% from 3).  He did play a combined 50 minutes in game 4 and 5 against Chicago, and it seems he’s supplanted James Jones as the designated 3-point bomber from the outside; but I have my doubts whether either of those two pine-sitters will make much of a difference in the Finals.

Conversely, Dallas’ bench comes in riding a wave of momentum they’ve carried all year, and was only buoyed further by the addition of Peja Stojakovic ahead of the buyout deadline in January.  Unfortunately for Peja, this matchup doesn’t bode well for him, as the athleticism-challenged Mavs are at a major disadvantage in that category against a Miami team with a similar fleet of athletes to that of Oklahoma City.  Peja’s numbers were way down in the OKC series (16.4 ppg, 5.0 ppg, 23.8 3PG%) in comparison to the previous 2 playoff rounds (24.3 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 46.2 3FG%), and I don’t expect that to change much in the Finals.  Fortunately, both SG Jason Terry and PG J.J. Barea figure to play prominent roles against the Heat, providing a needed infusion of energy and quickness to the court.  In fact, Barea is being mentioned by Heat players in the same vein as the superstar they just defeated in the previous round, MVP Derrick Rose.  When Barea is penetrating with his deceptive quickness against an unsuspecting defender, a whole new array of options is at the Mavs’ disposal.  If left alone, Barea will drop a lay-up or floater over a taller defender.  If the help defender rotates over to help, Barea will dish out to one of 3 capable 3-point shooters in Dirk, Peja, and Terry.  Like Dirk, Barea’s level of play in these playoffs is unprecedented (and just in time: Barea is set to be a free agent after the season).  Expect to see this Barea-led, shooting-laden lineup frequently throughout the series; will the pair of lockdown perimeter defenders Miami features be able to slow it down?

Notable Advantage: Dallas

Coaching

Finals newbies.

Both coaches have gone through arduous seasons, from Mavs coach Rick Carlisle calling his players soft, to the Cry-Gate episode Miami coach Erik Spoelstra inflicted upon his team.  Carlisle, in his 9^th season as a head coach and 3^rd season with Dallas, is making his 1^st NBA Finals appearance, masterminding the Mavs’ quest to this stage.  He deftly adjusted his lineup to make up for the loss of his 2^nd-leading scorer (Caron Butler) less than halfway through the year, managed his vets’ minutes perfectly, and has his team on the threshold of the 1^st title in the franchise’s history.

Spoelstra has taken a bad rap all season long, looked at by some as this snotty little kid in over his head, and wondering when GM Pat Riley will dump him and take over head coaching duties.  But from everything I’ve heard from those around the team is that nobody is more prepared than Spo, that he has his players ready to play night in and night out, and is smart enough to know when something’s not working and to change it up to boost his team’s performance.  Personally, I also like the fact that he worked his way up from the dungeons of the Heat video editing offices to become a NBA head coach on the verge of an NBA title (as I mentioned in this column).

Just as in the last round, I give Carlisle the slightest edge due to experience.  But Coach Spo has become so mentally strong throughout the most media-intense NBA season any team has ever had, and he will not be frightened by the intensely bright lights of the Finals.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

Intangibles

Both teams come into this series rested, and I don’t mean just thanks to the 4 and 5 days off they’ve gotten between series.  Unlike the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers, who had made repeated trips to the NBA Finals in the last 3 seasons, both Dallas’ and Miami’s stars enter the series without considerable recent mileage on their legs.  Neither Dirk nor Wade has been to the Finals since their matchup in 2006, and both were eliminated in the 2010 postseason’s 1^st round.  LeBron was eliminated in the 2^nd round (not to mention completing no-showing the final 3 games of last year’s East semis against Boston).

In addition, while this series is being billed as the rematch of the ’06 Finals, both teams are made up of completely different parts this time around.  Each team features just 2 holdovers from that series 5 seasons ago (Dirk and Terry for Dallas, Wade and Haslem for Miami).  However, there is one parallel that will translate in this series, and that is the Dirk-Haslem matchup.  Dirk has struggled with big, athletic, physical defenders in the past, and Haslem helped limit him to just 39% shooting in that series.  But Dirk is a completely different player now, rising to a level we’ve never seen him rise to before (and he’s been extraordinarily impressive in past series, we just didn’t realize it because he wasn’t getting enough help and his team was losing).

In the end, I give the slightest of slight advantages to Dallas, who has displayed the type of mettle throughout the playoffs suggesting they believe this is their time.  They’ve won 5 straight road playoff games in the 2011 postseason, including 2 in each of the past 2 rounds; they won’t be afraid to play in the Heat’s home building in front of the late-arriving home fans (I couldn't resist taking a shot at the Miami “fan”, whose PR staff actually felt the need to launch this initiative this season).  Dirk is on another planet right now, and I fully expect him to not slow down even one iota and match LeBron and Wade shot-for-shot in what promises to be a classic Finals.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

The pick: Heat in 7

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I’ve got eight categories identified above, and in six of them, I’ve given the advantage to Dallas.  And yet I’ve picked Miami to win the series.  Why?  Because the two advantages Miami has are too substantial to be overcome by the Mavericks.  James and Wade have truly become Batman and Robin, carrying the weight of the world on their shoulders from the moment the ink dried on their new contracts, on a mission to prove all the haters wrong.  They moved mountains and overcome obstacles no other team in the history of the league had to deal with (even the 72-win Bulls), and are poised to win their 1^st championship as teammates.

I expect Dallas to employ a zone look from time to time, hoping to limit the penetration of LeBron and Wade and dare others to beat them from the outside, namely Bibby, Chalmers, and Miller (and Jones, but I’m not sure how much run he’ll get in this series).  Miami will counter with its big lineup, removing Bibby and Chalmers from the floor and using a combination of James, Wade, and Miller to bring the ball up the floor.  This greatly enhanced Miami’s defensive capabilities against the quickness of Rose in the previous series, and Wade and LeBron likely will check Kidd and Dirk as they run their crunch-time pick-and-roll offense.  This chess match will be really fun to watch.

I do have hope for Dallas in this series, as Miami, despite rolling through their competition so far this postseason (winning all 3 series by a final count of 4 games to 1), has never faced as good a shooting team as Dallas has.  The Mavs can put 4 elite shooters on the floor at one time, with 3 of them averaging at or above 40% from behind the arc in the postseason, and Miami hasn’t been the greatest at defending the 3-point line.

But Miami employs a level of athleticism and defensive pressure Dallas hasn’t seen in the playoffs, and whether the Mavs can overcome that impediment to win 4 games against a determined Heat club remains to be seen.  As much as I’d love to see it happen, I just don’t.  But my goodness, is this going to be a fun series to watch, from start to finish.

I’ve got the Heat in 7.  But boy do I hope I’m wrong.  Because seriously, how can anyone outside of South Beach root for a team where this is acceptable, BEFORE you’ve won ANYTHING?