NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals Preview

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Regular Season Results: Mavericks won 2-1

Analysis of matchups:

Point Guard

Youth vs. experience, the permeating theme of the series.

 

Jason Kidd’s career has followed quite an interesting path.  One of the best point guards in NBA history (9.1 career assists per game, ranks 2^nd all-time in assists behind John Stockton) and a lock for the Hall of Fame upon completion of his career, Kidd was a notably terrible outside shooter.  Kidd never posted a 3-point percentage of better than 37% in any of his first 13 seasons.  That is, until his deadline-day trade from New Jersey to Dallas in 2008.  In that 2008 season as a Net, Kidd shot 35.6% from behind the 3-point line; as a Maverick, that number jumped to 46.1%.  Short-season fluke?  Think again.  Kidd’s 3-point shooting percentages in the subsequent 2 seasons: 40.6% and 42.5%.  But then that number dipped back to 34% this season, raising questions of if, at age 38, Kidd is approaching the end.  Kidd’s value to Dallas at this point is almost completely as a long-range spot-up shooter, either as the beneficiary of a penetrate-and-kick, or in tandem on a pick-and-roll with PF Dirk Nowitzki.  Will Kidd be able to knock down these outside shots in the Western Finals?  And how many more miles does he have left in the tank?  Does he have 2 more playoff rounds in him?

In addition, Kidd’s numbers against Oklahoma City this season are among the worst he’s put up against any individual opponent.  Take a look:

	Minutes	FG%	3FG%	Assists	Turnovers	Points
Season Averages	33.2	36.1	34	8.2	2.2	7.9
Against OKC	37	23.3	20	9.7	2.3	6

It stands to reason that the quickness, strength, athleticism, and physicality of counterpart Russell Westbrook had something to do with this, and will be an interesting storyline to follow during the series.  Westbrook, named to the 2010-11 All-NBA Second Team, is a terrifying matchup for any team, particularly in transition.  His explosiveness in beating defenders off the dribble and slashing through a double team following a pick-and-roll is as difficult a defensive proposition as there is in the league.  When he’s focused, getting teammates involved, and tearing up defenses, Oklahoma City is close to unstoppable.  However, far too often Westbrook ignores his teammates in favor of his own offense, falling in love with the 20-footer or the 3-pointer (of which he’s a 27.4% career shooter).  Twice this postseason he took at least 8 more shots than All-NBA 1^st teamer and teammate Kevin Durant; twice his team lost.  Good Westbrook : Thunder win :: Bad Westbrook : Thunder lose.  It’s really that simple.

Notable Advantage: Oklahoma City

Shooting Guard

Yo, you got Dirk?

This position is a common theme for both clubs: neither team gets a great deal of offense from its starting off-guard, as both OKC’s Thabo Sefolosha and Dallas’ DeShawn Stevenson are defensive specialists and will take their turns against the primary scoring options of the opponent (Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki).  Not only that, but both teams feature instant scoring options off the bench at this spot as well, as James Harden of the Thunder and Jason Terry of the Mavericks are versatile offensive threats and thorns in the side of their opponents with their abilities to light up quickly.  It will be a very interesting chess match to see when and for how long each defensive or offensive-minded player plays each night, and how the dynamic on the court changes given the personnel on the floor at any given time.

Advantage: Even

Small Forward

Lead the way, big fella.

There’s truly never been an NBA player quite like Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant.  At 6’9” and a very slight frame (he’s listed at 230, but I think he looks as though he’s closer to 210), Durant’s scoring prowess is matched by very few in the world.  Durant, at the young age of 22, has already won 2 scoring titles (and not coincidentally, was the youngest ever to do so), and was recently named to his 2^nd consecutive All-NBA First Team.  He followed his tremendous 2009-10 season (30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg) by becoming the best player of the U.S. National Team at the FIBA World Championships in the summer of 2010, and winning the MVP of the tournament as he led Team USA its first gold medal since 1994.  While not the quickest off the dribble or the greatest of defenders, Durant has become as unstoppable a scorer as there is in all of basketball.  His height and length make it so his shot is rarely challenged, let alone blocked, and his adept use of the pick-and-roll with Westbrook as well as back screens away from the ball have driven defenses batty.  He struggled at times against Memphis, and can be bothered by physical defenders; Tony Allen and Shane Battier were in his shorts at times, and Durant let that affect him as he turned in an 11-point, 3/14 performance in a convincing Game 6 loss.  Whether Durant will have similar difficulty against Stevenson, Shawn Marion, and perhaps Corey Brewer remains to be seen, but I still expect Durant to average 28-30 points for the series with at least a game or 2 approaching 40.

Speaking of Marion, the versatile and well-traveled small forward remains a nice scoring option for Dallas.  He has a nice outside jumper out to 20 feet (although it certainly isn’t the prettiest), but generally makes his hay on floaters and short jumpers as well as offensive rebounds and put-backs.  His numbers have dipped a bit in the postseason (from regular season numbers of 12.5 points on 52% shooting to 9.7 points on 43.8% shooting in the playoffs), and given his smaller frame (listed at 6’7”, 228), he may have a difficult time getting his shot off in traffic against the army of long-armed bigs Oklahoma City features, especially shot-blocking maniac PF Serge Ibaka.  I don’t expect Marion to make a great deal of impact in this series; if he can play decent defense against Durant and chip in around 10-12 points per game, that’s about all Dallas can ask for.

Substantial advantage: Oklahoma City

Power Forward

Dirk, the man of many hairdos.

I forget where I originally heard the nickname, but my favorite name for Mavs superstar PF Dirk Nowitzki is “the Deutschlander from 3-Point Lander”.  One of the most underappreciated players in the league today, all Dirk has done throughout his career is win, and put up Hall of Fame numbers doing it.  He is now firmly a top-30 player of all-time, and with an NBA title, would ascend firmly into the top-20 (forget that top-10 discussion, he’s not in that realm – yet).  Think about his career numbers: 23 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 47.6 FG%, 38.1 3FG%, 87.7 FT%.  And all by a 7-footer.  Just amazing.  Dirk and his Mavs have always conveniently been labeled “soft” by national pundits and fans alike; um, have you been paying attention?  That debate should be moot at this point, after the Mavs wiped the 2-time world champs off the floor in Western Conference semis.  All Dirk did was average 25.3 points and 9.3 boards, shoot 57.4% from the floor, emerge as the best player in a series against Kobe Bryant, and become the most difficult individual matchup in the league.  His herky-jerky array of pump fakes, pivots, and spin moves inevitably end with him hitting an unguardable jumper in the face of a perplexed and frustrated defender who can’t play any better defense than he did on that possession.  I look forward to what should be the best one-on-one matchup in the West Finals, against a super athletic African power forward, which leads me to my next point…

That super athletic African power forward, Thunder PF Serge Ibaka, is an incredible story of perseverance and opportunity.  The 3^rd-youngest of 18 children, Ibaka escaped from the war-torn Democratic Republic of the Congo and signed with a team in the Spanish league.  He was drafted in 2008 with the 24^th pick, came over to the States one year later, and has been nothing short of spectacular for Oklahoma City.  The mega-athlete, once a very raw prospect, has developed nice jumper out to 18 feet, and is not a liability on offense (9.9 ppg this season).  But where Ibaka makes his biggest impact is as a breathtaking weak-side shot blocker with incredible defensive instincts.  His ability to chase down opponents on a fast break and knock their shots against the backboard or into the 5^th row of seats has become the stuff of legend, and he has upped his amazing 2.4 blocks-per-game regular season average to an astounding 3.6 bpg in the 2011 playoffs, including an astounding 9 blocks in OKC’s Game 5 first-round clinching win over Denver.  If Ibaka can be a nuisance to Dirk more often than not, OKC has got a chance to reach the NBA Finals.

Substantial advantage: Dallas

Center

Time to rumble.

Both centers are brand new to their respective clubs (this is Tyson Chandler’s first year in Dallas, while Kendrick Perkins didn’t arrive in capital of Oklahoma until February), but the impact on their teams cannot be overstated.  Dallas went out in the first round of last season’s playoffs and desperately looked to upgrade the center position over the departing Erick Dampier.  Enter Chandler, a gift bestowed upon them for the pu-pu platter of Eduardo Najera, Matt Carroll, and the nonguaranteed contract of Dampier.  Chandler revamped the defense of the Mavs, providing Dallas with the long and athletic shot blocker they needed next to Nowitzki in the middle.  In a related story, Dallas has advanced to the Western Finals in just 10 games and is the favorite to be the West representative in the Finals.

His counterpart is Perkins, whose arrival in the Jeff Green trade was the perfect antidote to an imbalanced Thunder roster.  Perkins has added toughness, rebounding, and rugged interior defense to a club that had struggled on D prior to the trade, while also creating a domino effect on the rest of the team.  The trade of Green allowed Harden to flourish as the 6^th man, while the addition of Perkins also freed Ibaka to be the weak-side defensive terror that he has become.  I give Chandler the slight advantage here due to his familiarity in the system and overall defensive impact, but the infusion of toughness and championship mettle that Perkins provides shouldn’t be undervalued.

Slight Advantage: Dallas

Bench

Westbrook who?

In this column, I picked the Lakers defeat Dallas because LA typically is vulnerable against quick point guards who penetrate into the lane and can either score or kick out to shooters at will, and I didn’t believe the Mavs possessed this type of dynamic player who could exploit this weakness.  And I was emphatically wrong, as backup PG J.J. Barea looked like a young Stephon Marbury (before he went crazy) against the Lake Show.  Barea should get a ton of minutes in this series, as he is the only player Dallas has that is in the realm of Westbrook in the quickness department.  Overall the Mavs go to 4 reserves they trust, and I was particularly impressed with the minutes C Brendan Haywood gave Dallas in the last series against the Lakers, as he rebounded effectively and bothered LA’s post players on defense.  The best buyout addition any team made this season, Peja Stojakovic continues to be a lights-out shooter (46.1 3FG%) despite being of advanced age (33).  He and 2009 6^th man of the year Jason Terry are lockdown 3-point assassins, and shot LA right out of the playoffs in the last round, combining for a 15/16 barrage from deep in the Game 4 clincher.  Their other buyout add, Corey Brewer, may also see time in this series as a perimeter defender against Durant, as he is considerably taller and longer than Stevenson.

Oklahoma City is equally deep, as coach Scott Brooks confidently plays 5 reserves key playoff minutes.  OKC bulked up in the front-court at the trading deadline, not only with the much-ballyhooed deal with Boston for Perkins, but also with the much more under-the-radar addition of Nazr Mohammed from Charlotte.  Mohammed and fellow forward/center Nick Collison provide the muscle, rebounding and defense up front, and much like Haywood for Dallas, Collison was very impressive with his overall energy level in OKC’s series win over Memphis, limiting Grizzlies forward Zack Randolph’s production after a huge game 1.  The Thunder often don’t miss a beat when Westbrook is taken out of the game, and that is because they have one of the most reliable backup point guards in the NBA in young Eric Maynor, a 2^nd-year guy out of VCU whom GM Sam Presti nabbed on the cheap last season from Utah.  And their other reserve, who if kept in his current role could be a 6^th man of the year candidate himself, is G James Harden.  Harden’s minutes and production exploded following the Perkins trade, as he replaced Jeff Green seamlessly.  He comes off the bench flying, and is one of the best and most electrifying players in the league in transition.  Part of what will make this series so fun to watch is that these 2 teams are so evenly matched, up and down the lineup, and that includes their respective benches.

Advantage: Even

Coaching

Ladies and gentlmen, the winner of the Jim Carrey lookalike contest, Rick Carlisle.

The youth vs. experience clash between these two teams doesn’t just pertain to the players on the floor; the disparity is equally as evident on the sideline.  Oklahoma City is led by 46-year old 3^rd-year man Scott Brooks, who took over for former coach P.J. Carlesimo just 13 games into the 2008-09 season.  All Brooks has done since is lead OKC to back-to-back 50-win seasons and their first 2 playoff berths in Oklahoma City, and has the 2009-10 NBA Coach of the Year award to his credit.  Brooks also commands the respect of his players, having been an NBA point guard for 6 teams over 10 years.  But he showed his playoff inexperience in the last series, as OKC’s offense began to struggle a great deal, particularly at the end of games.  Over a 9.5-minute stretch of Game 3 against Memphis bridging the 4^th quarter and overtime, Durant didn’t take a single shot.  As the team’s superstar and undisputed #1 scoring option, this is unacceptable.  Can Brooks shake off any lingering doubts and make the key adjustments when the stakes are highest?

On the other side we have Dallas coach Rick Carlisle, a veteran of many rodeos past: in 9 seasons as an NBA head coach with Detroit, Indiana, and Dallas, Carlisle has had just one losing season, and of the 8 seasons he reached the playoffs, 6 times he won at least one playoff round.  Carlisle’s coaching performance this season was masterful; he dealt with the loss of his number #2 scorer, Caron Butler, to a season-ending knee injury, and coaxed outstanding seasons from veterans like Kidd, Terry, and Marion.  He also beautifully integrated Chandler into what has become an excellent defensive team, and is well-known for his in-game adjustments and exploitation of matchups.  Dallas definitely gets the nod in the coaching matchup heading into the series, as Brooks still needs to prove that he can avoid the meltdowns that nearly cost OKC the series against Memphis.

Notable advantage: Dallas

Intangibles

The question asked by the media when a team clinches early in one round and must wait upwards of a week or more before its next series begins is always the same: rested or rusty?  That is, will the team with the long wait be at an advantage heading into the next round by virtue of such a long rest?  Or is too much rest a bad thing, in effect disadvantaging that team to the point of being lethargic and playing at a less-effective level?  I think it depends on the sport: in baseball, where a hitter’s timing everything, players may be more apt for a regression in production due to a layoff.  This is not true in football (the NFL rewards is top 2 teams in each conference with first-round byes), and is definitely not true in basketball, particularly for an old team like Dallas.  You don’t think vets like Dirk, Kidd, Terry, Marion, etc. couldn’t use all that time off to recuperate and gear up for what should be an incredibly rough-and-tough series against the Thunder?  Conversely, the young legs of Oklahoma City are much more spry and apt to perform at a high level after such a short rest, and shouldn’t be at that great of a disadvantage heading into game 1.  Still, I give a slight edge to Dallas here.

Slight advantage: Dallas

The pick: Mavericks in 6

Michael Wilbon said it best on Monday’s edition of ESPN’s Pardon The Interruption: Oklahoma City is the team of the future, and Dallas is the team of today.  There is certainly a much greater level of urgency on the part of the Mavs, as they are the oldest team in the league; incredibly, OKC features the youngest club in the entire NBA.  It should be quite a clash of styles; the savvy and guile of the Mavs’ vets against the youthful exuberance of the Thunder.  For Dallas to take the series, they need 1) Dirk to continue to abuse whatever defender Oklahoma City throws at him, 2) shoot as well from outside as they have all postseason, and 3) goad Westbrook into falling in love with his own offense and freeze out his teammates like he has at times in the playoffs thus far.  On the other hand, for Oklahoma City to win, they need 1) Westbrook to be an equal scorer and distributor as the game dictates, 2) to abuse Dirk physically and force him into difficult shots and more passes with the length and size of their defenders, and 3) hope Dallas is less effective from deep than they have been during their 8-2 playoff run.  I like the Mavs to take this one in 6 games, clinching the series on Oklahoma City’s home floor.  Why?  They have had success on the road this postseason (3-2), and Oklahoma City has struggled this season in defending the perimeter.  That is a recipe for catastrophe against a Dallas team coming off a sizzling shooting performance against the Lakers (20/32 from behind the arc in Game 4).  The series will be extremely competitive, and either team can win it with the right breaks going their way.  In the end, I like the veteran-laden Mavericks to survive and advance to their 2^nd ever NBA Finals (2006), and give Dirk and Kidd the chance to win the first championship of their illustrious careers.