Minnesota Twins Week 8: A runaway train in the wrong direction

This is the 6^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Record: 17-35

An image Twins fans haven't seen often in 2011.

• Matt Capps ailing

This past week, closer Matt Capps was unavailable for the final two games of the Seattle series after trying, and failing, to complete a 5-out save in Monday’s 8-7 home loss.  Why?  Because of a sore arm.  And this makes sense, considering Capps has been brutally overworked by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire this season.  It’s been a vicious cycle for Capps, as he has been the lone trustworthy reliever in a Twins bullpen that has been utterly atrocious all season long, ranking dead-last in all of baseball with a 5.65 ERA and .292 batting average allowed (league-average: 3.69 ERA, .243 BAA).  And he certainly hasn’t been immune from the struggles of the ‘pen, posting a 1-3 record and a 5.09 ERA with 4 blown saves in 11 chances.  But just how overworked is the poor Twins closer?  Consider this: Joe Nathan, in his elite closing days for Minnesota from 2004-09, never attempted to record a save of more than 3 outs more than 3 times in any of those 6 seasons, and just 13 times total.  He also pitched more than 1 inning a combined 28 times, and no more than 6 times in any one season over that same timeframe.  Capps has attempted a 3+-out save 4 times already this season, all of them in the month of May alone, and has pitched more than 1 inning 6 different times already in 20 appearances in the 2011 season.  Here is the list:

Closer	Season	Save attempts of 3+ outs	Games of 1+ inning pitched
Nathan	2004	3	5
Nathan	2005	1	4
Nathan	2006	2	5
Nathan	2007	3	6
Nathan	2008	2	4
Nathan	2009	2	4
Capps	2010	2	4
Capps*	2011	4	6

*We’ve only played one-third of the season!

This is extremely troubling, and has ramifications beyond just this lost season.  Capps said he was available for Friday’s game, but this probably won’t be the last time this year he comes down with arm soreness unless his usage rate decreases drastically.

Hopefully a DL stint will be avoided.

• Liriano results since no-no

Speaking of soreness, LHP Francisco Liriano’s turn in the rotation was skipped due to a sore shoulder, and Nathan is on the Disabled List with a bum elbow.  This is a disappointing development for Liriano and the Twins, as the Dominican lefty had finally seemed to be turning things around.  In the month of May, Liriano had his no-hitter, and after a clunker his next time out, he limited Seattle and Arizona to just 3 runs on 9 hits over 13 combined innings while walking 5 and striking out 13 over that span.  This team has already been wrecked by injuries, so what’s a few more?  But on the plus side…

A sight for sore (Twins fan) eyes.

• Injured players returning

IF Tsuyoshi Nishioka and C Joe Mauer are both back playing in rehab games, though it is still unclear when they will return to the Twins’ lineup.  The guess here is that Nishi will get at least 2 weeks’ worth of at-bats before making his way to the big club.  I’m not quite sure about Mauer; the Twins really have coddled him his whole career in Minnesota, and they certainly won’t rush him back, especially that the 2011 season is already all but over in terms of playoff contention.  He wasn’t given many at-bats in the spring while still recovering from offseason knee surgery, and I believed he and the Twins organization have learned from that.

In addition, LHP Jose Mijares was activated off the DL on Monday following two rehab appearances, and LHP Glen Perkins is progressing in his recovery from a right oblique strain and hopefully will be back in 2 weeks or less.

Despite high expectations within the organization, the player brought back in the J.J. Hardy trade hasn't delivered.

• Jim Hoey is who we thought he was

In this column, I talked about how impressive RHP Jim Hoey had been in the game I got to see him in person in Baltimore back on April 18.  Unfortunately, his stuff just hasn’t translated into success, and he’s been downright abysmal as a major-league reliever this season.  Despite an outstanding Class AAA season (11 2/3 innings, 16 K’s, 1.54 ERA), Hoey entered Friday night with a 9.72 ERA in 8 1/3 innings with the big-league club, and was rocked for 2 runs and 4 hits while taking the loss in Friday night’s devastating defeat.  Just when you get your hopes up that the Twins may finally win a game, they go out of their way to blow it, and the bullpen was every bit the reason why.  And it remains to be seen whether Hoey, with an upper-90’s fastball but 10.45 ERA, will be able to stick in the major leagues.

Hey Slowey, grow a pair.

• Kevin Slowey’s poor attitude

It was really surprising and disappointing to hear that Kevin Slowey’s stock has fallen so far in the organization that it appears, at least from the outside, that they will look to trade him.  Slowey had struggled mightily this season in his adjustment from the starting rotation to the bullpen, posting a 4.91 ERA and 19 hits allowed over 14.2 innings this season.  He also was just put on the DL, and will return to the minors to be a full-time starter, at least in the short-term while the team likely will explore trade possibilities.  My take: Slowey had some success as a starter in the past (over 150 innings twice, 3 10+-win seasons, a career-best 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 160 innings in 2008), and he let that success go to his head, refusing to do what was best for the team by believing his move to the bullpen was a demotion and carrying a terrible attitude into the clubhouse as a result.  I obviously don’t have any real proof of that; it’s just my conjecture.  But this Star Tribune column was pretty jarring, and tells us what we really need to know.  Unfortunately, I don’t really see Slowey being able to be moved now, since his value is at its lowest point, and he needs to pitch, even against lesser competition for any other organization to take him seriously as a starting rotation candidate going forward.  Now, GM Bill Smith isn’t trading a prospect at a low point in value as last year’s Wilson-Ramos-for-Matt-Capps swap suggests (remember, Ramos was the chip the Twins were attempting to persuade Seattle into taking as its cornerstone in a deal for Cliff Lee).  Hopefully, for all parties involved, Slowey comes off the DL strong, pitches great in Class AAA, and a solution is found, be it with the Twins or another club.  I don’t believe we’ve heard the last of this saga, and Slowey may yet pitch again for Minnesota.  A very similar predicament befell Glen Perkins just 2 years ago, who also fought internally with the organization (failed to tell the team about an injury, missed more time than expected, filed a grievance against the organization, etc.).  Perkins is still with the club, and is now in a prominent role as a late-inning set-up reliever.  Slowey may yet grow up and discover he’s a big boy now; only time will tell.

The shining beacon of hope for the future.

• Expectations for the rest of the season

I went to 2 games at Target Field this week and enjoyed them immensely, watching a pair of brilliantly-pitched performances by Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak.  Swarzak actually carried a no-hitter into the 8^th inning, and the Twins won the game on a walk-off hit by 3B Danny Valencia in the 10^th.  But alas, the team still sits at a league-worst 17-35, 15 games out of 1^st place in the AL Central division, 12 games out in the Wild Card, and 6-15 at home.  Let’s be honest, there’s no real hope about the season as far as any playoffs are concerned.  There are a couple of things I would like to point out that will be happening later this season, one that is very exciting, and the other… not so much.  The good news is that stud righty pitcher Kyle Gibson should arrive in the next couple of months, and may be in the rotation already if a spot was available (as we’ve learned with Slowey, clearly a rotation spot is not available at this time).  A top-10 talent out of the University of Missouri that dropped to the Twins at the #22 overall pick in the 2009 draft due to injury and signability concerns, Gibson tore through the minors in 2010, eventually arriving at Class AAA Rochester and posting excellent peripherals (3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.9 K-rate in 199 1/3 career innings).  It stands to reason that Gibson could get a call by September at the latest, and that provides some semblance of interest in a team in which the “Dog Days of Summer” phrase is more apt this year than in most years.

And that brings me to my next, not-so-positive point: because this season is already in the tank, it stands to reason that the Twins could explore the trade value of some of its players, particularly those whose deals expire at the end of the season.  Buster Olney of ESPN speculated that the Braves, given their outfield injuries, could be interested in OFs Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, both of whom are free agents at season’s end.  I tend to believe that Kubel is the more likely of the two to be traded, since Cuddyer is much more versatile of a defender, not to mention that he is a beloved member of the franchise both on the field and off.  If I’m the Twins, I throw the book at Cuddyer to keep him, and explore Kubel’s value, which is at an all-time high.  Also helping their cause will be Kubel’s likely selection as the Twins’ lone All-Star representative this season, as the team is pretty much devoid of any other realistic candidates for All-Star selection.  Minnesota probably won’t give up much, however; this team is still built to win now, and should improve greatly once Mauer and Nishioka return to the lineup.  I’m telling you, the lineup and rotation simply are not this bad (the bullpen, yeah, it IS that bad).  The Twins are not playoff contenders this year (boy, did I ever get that wrong), but this team should be right back in contention in 2012.  A Kubel trade makes sense, given his high value and the team’s outfield depth (Ben Revere can step in and play every day right now if given the chance).  But I don’t expect Minnesota to sell more big-league players than they have to, despite the depressing 2011 campaign.