Eastern Conference
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
Regular season results: Bulls won 3-1
Key matchup: Bulls PG Derrick Rose vs. the scary clowns that Pacers fans will dress up as in the stands
Thoughts: No, really. Rose actually said this week that he’s afraid of clowns, Unfortunately for Indiana, that’s about all that will be compelling in this series, as the Bulls should put them away quickly and quietly.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Regular season results: Heat won 3-0
Key matchup: Sixers F Andre Iguodala/G Jrue Holiday vs. Heat F LeBron James/G Dwyane Wade
Thoughts: Iguodala has made himself into arguably the best perimeter defender in the league this season, and Holiday has been elite since coming into the league last year. They have the goods to stick with LeDwayne. Unfortunately, they don’t score enough points to remain competitive, and those quick 10-2 runs Miami can get on with ease will not be matched by the slower, plodding Sixers. And Iguodala and PG Lou Williams are both questionable with injuries heading into the series, not helping the Sixers’ cause.
Prediction: Heat in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
Regular season results: Celtics won 4-0
Key matchup: Celtics PG Rajon Rondo vs. himself
Thoughts: For some reason, this is a fashionable upset pick among fans. The fans look at the two stars that have aligned in the Big Apple in C Amar’e Stoudemire and F Carmelo Anthony and think, wow, this team is going to beat an older, weaker Celtics team. Fortunately, cooler heads prevail among experts, and most think the battle-tested C’s will at least have enough in the tank to dispatch the upstart Knickerbockers. Rondo averaged 17 assists per game against New York this season, and is a complete mismatch against the Knicks’ (lack-of) D. But Rondo also has been an emotional wreck since his best friend PF Kendrick Perkins was traded to Oklahoma City, and it has reflected in his and his team’s play (14-11 to end the regular season post-trade). Make no mistake: Boston goes as their precocious point guard goes, and they did not inspire a great deal of confidence down the stretch this season. But New York’s complete aversion to playing defense will allow Rondo to get into the paint at will and wreak havoc, and the C’s will be just fine in Round 1.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
Regular season results: Hawks won 3-1
Key matchup: Magic C Dwight Howard vs. Hawks C Jason Collins
Thoughts: Howard shoots 48% from the field against Atlanta, the lowest against any opponent. And much of that defensive credit goes to lightly-used Hawks backup C Jason Collins, whose lone purpose in the NBA seems to be as a Dwight-stopper. The Hawks actually won the season series against Orlando, but the absolute beatdown that took place in last year’s 2nd round (Orlando swept the series, winning each game by an average of more than 25 points) still looms large. This series should be much more competitive, but Orlando has the best player in the series, and should he act like it, I like Orlando to barely squeak by and advance to Round 2.
Prediction: Magic in 7
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Regular season results: Tied 2-2
Key matchup: Grizzlies PF Zack Randolph vs. the interior San Antonio defense
Thoughts: The Spurs’ championship chances hinge on the health of their Big 3 of PF Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili, and right now Ginobili is afflicted with a hyper-extended right (non-shooting) elbow that could keep him out of Game 1 of this series. This also is an intriguing upset pick among some in the public. I don’t buy it. I do have Memphis taking 2 games in the series, and Randolph has dominated San Antonio this year. But the 2-2 split this season is a little misleading due to games missed by the aforementioned stellar Spurs trio, and this loaded team has too much experience, swagger, and 3-point shooting ability to get bounced by an upstart Grizz team missing its best player (SG Rudy Gay).
Prediction: Spurs in 6
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
Regular season results: Lakers won 4-0
Key matchup: Hornets PG Chris Paul vs. the Lakers entire team
Thoughts: The above matchup is basically what it comes down to, as Paul is about all the Hornets have to get excited about, and even he has been battling a chronic knee injury (check out the brace he wears on his knee, it is massive). L.A. does get killed routinely by great point guards, but Paul simply does not have the help around him to even make this series competitive, especially given the regrettable loss of PF David West to a torn ACL just 3 weeks ago. It’s been a nice comeback year for New Orleans as they returned to the playoffs, but their run will be short.
Prediction: Lakers in 4
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
Regular season results: Tied 2-2
Key matchup: PF Dirk Nowitzki vs. Blazers SF Gerald Wallace
Thoughts: The other fun upset to pick, and this time, I do buy it. The Blazers’ top 7 players can play with anyone in the league, and the absolute theft of Wallace from Charlotte at the trade deadline as transformed the look and confidence of this Blazer team. Rick Carlisle deserves a ton of credit for the coaching job he’s done with this Maverick club, as he has pushed all the right buttons (save for calling his players soft) and maximized the abilities of his Dallas team. But Wallace and the other perimeter defenders will give Dirk fits, and I like Portland to upset Dallas in this series. One word of caution: Portland is a poor shooting team, and an extended funk against a quality defensive team like Dallas could be their undoing. Fortunately, PF LaMarcus Aldridge is a budding All-Star coming off an outstanding campaign, and he could nullify any shooting problems the Blazers have if he’s given room to operate in the low post (average 29 points, 10 rebounds, 52% shooting against Dallas this season).
Prediction: Blazers in 6. You heard me.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
Regular season results: Thunder won 3-1
Key matchup: Thunder C Kendrick Perkins vs. Nuggets PF Nene
Thoughts: This could easily be the most fun of any first-round series, as both teams are high flyers that like to run and get up and down and spread the floor. Denver is getting a lot of hype as a first-round upset choice, and I do believe this team is a legit threat to any team in the conference, as they finished the season 18-7 post-Carmelo Anthony trade. But this Thunder team is a bad matchup for them, as Oklahoma City features easily the best 2 players in the series, and a new-found confidence permeates throughout this team following the addition of Perkins. And Perkins vs. Nene will be awesome to watch, as they nearly came to blows twice in the final two regular-season meetings between the teams. The team-first, no-distractions play of Denver has been inspiring over the season’s final 25 games, and they will push OKC to the limit. But the young Thunder survive in tough, hard-fought 7-game series, as Durant, Westbrook and Co. win their first playoff series as a group.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
Dude - you got this one wrong. Mavs will be in the Western Conf finals this year. Take it to the bank. Secret weapon: Corey Brewer (Defensive specialist)!
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