The Denard Span Quandary

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

This image may have been seen for the last time.

Trade rumor sites are speculating about it.  ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting it.  And now, the Twins are ordering him not to rejoin the team this weekend, despite his being medically cleared to return to action.  Manager Ron Gardenhire even made up a cockamamie story about how “traveling has been tough” on him as the motive behind this command.

Yep, Twins fans, it appears a Denard Span trade is imminent, and quite possibly could get done prior to Sunday’s 4 PM non-waiver trade deadline.  And sorry Dad, I know how much you like that retro #2 jersey I bought you last year.

The trade partner?  None other than the Washington Nationals, the same team that ripped off made a deal with Minnesota just a year ago, exchanging closer Matt Capps with stud catching prospect Wilson Ramos.  The bounty?  Young closer Drew Storen, whom the Twins insist (and rightfully so) must be included in the deal, rather than All-Star set-up man Tyler Clippard.  Minnesota remains desperate for quality bullpen arms, having lost 4 capable relievers from the 2010 campaign and striking out badly on the offseason J.J.-Hardy-for-Jim-Hoey swap with Baltimore.  Storen, a few days shy of his 24^th birthday, has posted 25 saves, a 0.95 WHIP and a 3.32 xFIP in 50.1 innings this season for Washington and is under team control for 4 more seasons beyond this one.  He boasts a nice young arm and would likely be a long-term fit at closer if and when Joe Nathan is no longer a Twin.

But let’s focus on the deal from Minnesota’s perspective.  Twins fans and national baseball fans alike are questioning the motivations of the Twins brass to get this deal done, as prior to his sustaining of a concussion on June 3, Span was enjoying a nice comeback year following a down campaign in 2010.  After seeing his on-base percentage drop from .392 in 2009 to .331 last year, his OBP is back up to .361 this season.  Span is patient (24 walks to just 26 strikeouts and a career 249/204 K/BB walk), an adept baserunner and stealer (26/30 successful stolen base attempts in 2010 and 76% career success rate), possesses good speed and pop (30 triples in 4 seasons, including a league-best 10 in 2009), is a solid defensive outfielder (16.8 career Ultimate Zone Rating in 3897.2 innings) and is affordable ($13.75 million due through 2014 with a $9 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2015).  He’s the ideal leadoff hitter with his approach at the plate, has produced consistently in his 4 years at the big league level, and is a fan favorite; any team would love to have Span as their everyday centerfielder.

And yet he’s being discussed in a trade prior to the deadline.  Why?  Because the Twins have a younger, faster, and cheaper replacement readily available in Ben Revere.  Sure, Revere’s OBP is .292 is far cry from Span’s career mark of .366.  But Revere raked in the minor leagues to the tune of a .326/.385/.408 batting line, and stole 154 bases in 208 attempts (74%).  He’s also stolen 17 bases this year in 22 attempts, and his recall to the majors directly coincided with the Twins’ ascent up the standings (which I detailed here).  Revere has a similarly good eye at the plate (137/118 minor-league K/BB ratio, and 23/15 this year with the Twins), and while he has just 6 extra-base hits, he’s always a threat to steal a base or two if he reaches via a single or walk, or take an extra base on a base hit.  Defensively, he has a skill set very much akin to Span (great range, below-average throwing arm).   He’s 4 years younger (23 to Span’s 27), he has 4 more years of inexpensive team control before he hits free agency (his salary is unavailable but is likely in the $400,000 range for this season), and he won not one but two Twins Minor League Player of the Year awards.  The kid can really play.

In the end, it comes down to a decision on the allocation of resources.  Major-league teams typically like defense-first players in the up-the-middle positions (catcher, shortstop, 2^nd base, and center field), while seeking offense in the corner infield and outfield spots.  Both Span and Revere are versatile enough to play corner outfield positions (Span has 124 career appearances in right field and 85 in left; Revere played 42 minor-league games in left field and has 5 corner-outfield starts in the bigs), but neither have the power-hitting skills needed to justify a full-time position there.  And both are left-handed, ruling out a position switch to the infield.

A trade by 4 PM Sunday is no guarantee.  GM Bill Smith may elect to hold on to both players and demote Revere to a lower spot in the lineup or to an occasional spot starter/pinch-runner/late-inning defensive replacement role (no way Span loses his starting CF spot as long as he’s on the roster), managing the two defensive stalwarts comparably to how Span and former Twin Carlos Gomez were used in 2008 and 2009.

But the center field predicament won’t be resolved from within.  Whether or not a trade happens Sunday is up for debate; but either Span or Revere will be playing in another uniform in 2012, you can bet on that.

MLB Midseason Recap and Preview Combo

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: statistics obtained from ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Minnesota Twins page at MLB.com.

Breaking a 99-year-old record held by a man named Chief Wilson? Now that would be special.

Despite all the predictive columns I’ve written since the inception of this blog, I’ve never revisited any of those pieces to determine what went right and what went (horribly) wrong.  This changes today, as I re-examine my original Major League Baseball predictions from the preseason.  Some things went just about according to plan (the AL East, Justin Verlander as a Cy Young contender, the top of the NL East), others, well, didn’t (the AL Central, the Pirates, the A’s to win the AL West? Really?!).  But that’s all part of the fun.  And now, I combine a 1^st-half recap with a 2^nd-half forecast surely to be packed with drama and intrigue (the wild card races not withstanding):

AL EAST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                            Midseason Prediction

Y - Red Sox 98-64             Red Sox 55-35                             Y - Red Sox 98-64

X - Yankees 92-70             Yankees 53-35                             X - Yankees 95-67

Rays 87-75                         Rays 49-41                                   Rays 89-73

Blue Jays 82-80                  Blue Jays 45-47                            Blue Jays 81-81

Orioles 74-88                     Orioles 36-52                                Orioles 67-95

A look back:

• I went chalk all the way with this division prediction, and at the midway point, things are holding true to form.  But it didn’t always appear that would be the case, what with Boston bumbling out to a 2-10 start with new LF Carl Crawford (.135/.190/.162, 2 2Bs, 0 HRs, 4 BB, 14 K’s in 74 ABs over his 1^st 18 games in Boston) holding the flag of underachievement and its fanbase kvetching with discontent.  Naturally, the team more than recovered, righting the ship to the tune of a 53-25 finish to the 1^st half thanks to an MVP first half from their other marquee addition, 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.354/.414/.591, 17 HRs, the AL leader in hits (128), doubles (29), and RBI (77)).

• The Yankees’ pitching staff more than made up for the ineffectiveness and dead arm of Phil Hughes, thanks to the stunning resurgence of Bartolo Colon.  Colon has nearly thrown the most innings this season (90) since his Cy Young season of 2005 and has posted a 6-4 record, 3.20 ERA, his best career WHIP 1.44, and a K/BB ratio of 3.59 that rivals that 2005 campaign.

• Tampa’s little-engine-that-could reputation remains strong, due in large part to the unforeseen dominance of righty James Shields (2.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.89 xFIP, 3.4 WAR).  And despite the loss of relievers Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano, the Rays’ bullpen hasn’t fallen off much of where it was from last season (3.33 ERA to 3.62). and has lost just 8 games in 2011, the fewest in MLB.

• Joey Bats, aka Jose Bautista, continues to mash (his 85 home runs since the start of the 2010 season crushes the2^nd-place 61 dingers from White Sox 1B Paul Konerko), and his team is tied for 3^rd in the bigs in home runs with 107, but the pitching staff hasn’t picked up the slack, as its team ERA of 4.13 ranks 22^nd in baseball.

• Hope was rekindled in Charm City as the Orioles jumped out to a quick 6-1 start that had the fanbase screaming PLAYOFFS!!!!!  Yep, right up until the team immediately fell back to earth with an 8-game losing streak.  Still, nearing the conclusion of the interleague play, the team hovered around the .500 mark at 35-40.  Yep, and then the team crashed to a 1-12 finish to close out the 1^st half.  I’m really worried about LHP Brian Matusz, whose velocity plummeted this season coming off an oblique injury, and it stands to reason that veterans like DH Vladimir Guerrero, 1B Derrek Lee, and LF/1B Luke Scott may be moved before season’s end.  It seems not even the great Buck Showalter can save the Orioles’ 2011 campaign (but he certainly can fire his team up).

Fearless Forecast:

Fresh off the DL, LF Carl Crawford is primed for an epic 2^nd half.  Finally settled in Boston, Crawford remains healthy the rest of the year and wreaks havoc, to the tune of a .315/.360/.450 hitting line and 25 stolen bases … Similarly, Phil Hughes shakes off arm weakness from the first half of the season and, thanks to considerable improvement in velocity, solidifies a Yankee rotation due for a regression from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia and delivers a 6-2 record, 3.70 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP over 85 innings … The Rays finish with the 4^th-best record in the AL, yet finish 3^rd in the vaunted Eastern division thanks to the 2 juggernauts above them, and rekindle discussions of realignment at the Winter Meetings in the offseason … Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista launches 60 homers in the new profoundly pitcher-friendly era, but finishes 2^nd in MVP voting thanks to the .363, 35-homer, 145-RBI delivered by Boston 1B Adrian Gonzalez in what proves to be one of the best MVP races in recent memory… Luke Scott is activated from the DL on July 19, as expected – just in time to be traded prior to the July 31 trade deadline, clearing the way for the O’s to sign Brewers 1B Prince Fielder in the offseason (as I forecasted here). 

AL CENTRAL

Preseason Pick                Halfway Mark                          Midseason Prediction

Y - Twins 90-72                Tigers 49-43                               Y - Twins 84-78

White Sox 87-75               Indians 47-42                              Tigers 83-79

Tigers 83-79                      White Sox 44-48                        White Sox 81-81

Royals 64-98                     Twins 41-48                                Indians 77-85

Indians 61-101                   Royals 37-54                              Royals 66-96

A look back:

• It’s Justin Verlander’s world, and we’re all just living in it.  The Detroit ace is 2^nd in the league in wins with a 12-4 record, 2^nd with a 2.15 ERA, best in strikeouts with 147 and in WHIP at 0.87, 3^rd in K/BB ratio 4.74; the list keeps going.  But the number I’m most impressed with is 151, the number of innings he’s pitched.  In a league of managers and organizations babying and coddling their pitchers by limiting innings and pitch-counts, Verlander and manager Jim Leyland are throwbacks to a previous era, and it’s very refreshing to see.

• The American League’s 1^st-half stunning surprise arose in the up-for-grabs Central division, as the incredible amount of injuries befalling the defending champion Minnesota Twins provided the Cleveland Indians with the opportunity to race out to a 30-15 record on May 23, which was the best in the American League by over 5 games.  But they’ve seemingly done it with smoke and mirrors, as their team ERA of 3.96 ranks 18^th in baseball, and their offense 13^th in runs scored with 386.  It’s hard to see a rotation led by Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Justin Masterson leading a team to a division title, and the Indians are just 17-27 since their great start.  But given the weakness of the Central as a whole, Cleveland has a chance to at least finish at .500 this year, which may be good enough to win the poor division.

• So who kidnapped Adam Dunn and replaced him with the monstrosity of a baseball player that current resides on the South Side of Chicago?!  Dunn has quite possibly been the worst player in the American League, so bad that Jayson Stark of ESPN.com named him his Least Valuable Player of the season’s 1^st half.  You can’t fault Sox GM Kenny Williams for this one: the Sox had a huge need for lefty power, and Dunn had produced his entire career (career .250/.381/521, 35 HRs, 88 RBI, 27 doubles).  But for whatever reason, Dunn fell off a cliff this year (.160/.292/.305, 9 HRs, 35 RBI, 12 doubles).  The only really tangible difference this year has been his move to the American League.  Does that really explain Dunn’s demise as a quality player?  The whole situation has been befuddling, and has created an utter disaster for Chicago, who owe him $56 million over the life of the contract that runs through 2014. Yikes.

• And that brings us to this writer’s pride and joy, the rising yet underachieving Minnesota Twins.  A 17-37 beginning and Joe Mauer’s “bilateral leg weakness” diagnosis had me in a fan coma for the first 2 months of the year.  But despite the manhandling of injuries the team has incurred (the list of Twins who have spent time on the disabled list and the amount of games missed: Denard Span 33, Tsuyoshi Nishioka 60, Mauer 58, Justin Morneau 34, Jason Kubel 37, Delmon Young 34, Jim Thome 49), the team has somehow remained competitive.  LHP Francisco Liriano and RHP Nick Blackburn have struggled of late, but LHP Brian Duensing and RHP Carl Pavano have been steady, and RHP Scott Baker is enjoying the best season of his career (3.01 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 8.1 H/9, 1.18 WHP, all career-bests with at least 100 innings).  OF Ben Revere and SS Alexi Casilla have also caught fire and ignited the top of the lineup, which I detailed in this column.  The bullpen remains a huge question mark, but the backend, with the sudden emergence of LHP Glen Perkins, marked improvement from RHP Joe Nathan, and steady hand of closer Matt Capps, is solid.

• Hope continues to permeate in Kansas City, whose faith have already witnessed the arrivals of ballyhooed prospects 1B Eric Hosmer and 3B Mike Moustakas.  Hosmer has produced a decent .268 average and .748 OPS so far with 8 homers and 11 doubles, and will now get a chance to grow at the major league level.  LHP Danny Duffy already has gotten some starting experience, and soon, KC will be inundated with more youngsters, as C/RF Wil Myers and lefty pitchers Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer figure to arrive in the next couple of years.  The 2011 season won’t get much better, but fear not Royals fans, AL Central contention is right around the corner.

Fearless Forecast:

HOMERISM ALERT: That’s correct, I’m calling for a 3-peat of AL Central titles for my Minnesota Twins, despite all odds.  Look, I get it.  The team is 41-48, 6.5 games back in the division, 3 teams sit ahead of them, Justin Morneau won’t be back until mid-August at earliest, etc.  But did you know the Twins sport a 24-11 record since June 1, good for 2^nd best in all of MLB, behind only Boston’s 25-9?  That the team has played 11 more road than home games through the All-Star break?  That the team is a combined 11-2 against fellow AL Central contenders Chicago and Cleveland?  Yes I know, the Twins have yet to beat Detroit this season (0-5).  But you know what?  They don’t scare me (other than Verlander, that is).  And all of those games were prior to the Twins’ recent hot streak.  Plus Detroit has a history of collapsing when trying to stave off the Twins in the division race (see: 2006, 2009).  The Twins win the Central once again – and then promptly lose 3 straight against the overwhelmingly-favored Red Sox.  Thanks for playing! … Tigers RHP Justin Verlander laps the field in the race for the Cy Young award, finishing with 23 wins, a 2.30 ERA, and 280 strikeouts in 260 innings – but no other Tiger starter throws an ERA of under 4, and his team misses out on the playoffs once again … Chicago loses Jake Peavy to the disabled list at least one more time, the law of averages catches up to Phil Humber (3.10 ERA in 107 innings, career 5.26 ERA over 51.1 innings before this year), and Chicago’s team starter’s ERA finishes higher than Minnesota’s … Cleveland’s pitching staff regresses while seeing  DH Travis Hafner (.325/.406/.528) and All-Star SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.293/.347/.489, 14 HRs, 51 RBI) tail off from their crazy-good 1^st-halves and fall to 4^th place in the division … Kansas City once again finishes with the worst record in the AL, and along the way deal IF Wilson Betemit and OF Jeff Francoeur to contenders while promoting at least one of the aforementioned kids to the bigs for a September trial run at the majors.  Next year the team takes a greater step towards .500, and contends in 2013.

AL WEST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                      Midseason Prediction

Y – A’s 87-75                   Rangers 51-41                         Y - Rangers 92-70

Rangers 86-76                    Angels 50-42                          Angels 88-74

Angels 76-86                      Mariners 43-48                       Mariners 70-92

Mariners 63-99                  A’s 39-53                                A’s 68-94

A look back:

• Cliff who?  LHP C.J. Wilson has built on his breakthrough 2010 campaign in which he transitioned to a starting pitcher full-time, and made his first All-Star team in 2011 thanks to a campaign of 9-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and career-best 2.79 K/BB, far better than last year’s 1.83 in which he led the American League with 93 walks.  Texas is second in runs scored and batting average, overcoming the losses of OF’s Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz for stretches of the season to hold off the Angels for 1^st the AL West through the season’s 1^st half.  The wild card races may be moot in both leagues this year, but the division races will be exciting, and the Western division of the American League is no exception.

• Quick, who was the back-up 2B for the AL All-Star team?  Waiting, waiting, and…… time!  It was Howie Kendrick of the Angels, and believe me, he deserved the recognition.  After being underappreciated while playing in the shadow of other American League All-Star 2B’s like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler, Kendrick pushed his way into the spotlight by being on pace for career highs in all hitting line stats (.302/.360/.462), homers (16), total bases (278), and even walks (42).  Kendrick has led a balanced lineup that has gotten help from new 1B Mark Trumbo (team-high 17 homers) and from a rotation led by the AL ERA leader, Jered Weaver (1.86 ERA).  The Angels are right behind Texas in the heated AL West race, and are poised to put a lackluster 2010 campaign behind them and re-take the West crown.

• Move over Felix, you’ve got some competition for the Most Popular Pitcher in the Northwest label.  Rookie RHP Michael Pineda has been a revelation for the Mariners (113 innings, 8-6, 3.03 ERA, 9.0 K/BB, 6.5 H/9 (wow), 0.8 HR/9, 1.04 WHIP), and the duo of he and defending Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez have kept on the fringe of the AL West race at 43-48.  The prize of last year’s Cliff Lee trade, 1B Justin Smoak, continues to progress (.229/.327/.418, 12 HRs, 20 doubles, 43 RBIs), and stud prospect 2B Dustin Ackley has arrived and been outstanding in his first 20 games (.304/.364/.536).  Contention is still a pipe dream in 2011, but with several core young players in place, the Mariners are quietly building a winner in the coming years.

• My Oakland-wins-the-AL West call was probably my worst, and you can’t really even say they’ve underachieved.  The pitching staff has been wrecked by injuries, and the lineup really hasn’t competed all season long.  First, LHP Dallas Braden was lost to a tear in his shoulder in May.  And now, fellow lefty Brett Anderson is also out, possibly until 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Along with chronic health risks Brandon McCarthy and Rich Harden, the A’s really never had a chance in 2011.

Fearless Forecast:

After outbidding the Angels in an epic bullpen arms race, closer Heath Bell is traded to Texas, who is desperate for relief help (4.57 bullpen ERA, 4^th-worst in MLB) and badly needs a late-inning solution with Alexi Ogando in the rotation and the lack of a reliable bridge to closer Neftali Feliz, who is just in his 2^nd season as full-time closer … Having lost out on Bell, the Angels settled for Leo Nunez of the Marlins to aid their already-formidable ‘pen (11^th in reliever ERA at 3.38).  The AL West race goes to the wire, and the defending champion Rangers stave off their Los Angeles counterparts for their 2^nd straight title … With the team gradually falling out of the race in the division, Seattle shuts down the rookie Pineda at the 180-inning mark, missing the final 3-4 weeks of the season.  But his numbers are so stellar, that he has no problem taking the AL Rookie of the Year … OF Josh Willingham is dealt to the Phillies in a salary dump, and DH Hideki Matsui is also traded, as the A’s ride the wave of injuries to their worst record since 1997.

NL EAST

Preseason Pick                 Halfway Mark                         Midseason Prediction

Y - Phillies 93-69                Phillies 57-34                            Y – Phillies 95-67

X - Braves 90-72                Braves 54-38                            Braves 92-70

Marlins 86-76                     Mets 46-45                               Nationals 82-80

Nationals 72-90                  Nationals 46-46                         Mets 76-86

Mets 68-94                         Marlins 43-48                           Marlins 71-91

A look back:

• The Phantastic Phour lost a key member in Roy Oswalt, but didn’t miss a beat.  The other Thrilling Three more than picked up the slack as RHP Roy Halladay and LHP’s Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were as good as advertised (combined 412.2 innings, 31-13, 0.6 HR/9, 1.00 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, 7.08 K/BB ratio), and Vance Worley has been a nice surprise as well (4-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 49 innings over 8 starts and 10 appearances).  And the club has far and away the best record in the NL despite ranking just 14^th overall in runs (384) and 18^th in OPS (.705).  With 2B Chase Utley back after missing the first 50 games, expect the Phillies to only improve offensively (as well as adding an outfield bat before the trade deadline).

• So can you guess who the NL ERA leader is?  He’s Curacao-born, speaks 4 languages, and was part of an outright heist of a trade that in which he was sent to Atlanta in exchange for the corpse of Edgar Renteria.  His name is Jair Jurrjens, and his 1.87 ERA and 12 wins are tops in the Senior Circuit.  The Braves are just a shade behind the rival Phillies in ERA at 3.11, quietly constructing an elite rotation built for postseason play and sporting the best 1-2 punch at the back of the bullpen in the league in lefty Jonny Venters and right Craig Kimbrel, both of whom made their first All-Star teams this year.  Like Philadelphia, they are also offensively-challenged (18^th in runs, 22 in OPS), but should they add a bat at the deadline (or if 2B Dan Uggla gives them anything more than the .185/.257/.365 he gave them in the 1^st half), look out for the boys from the A-T-L.

• Anybody have 2B Danny Espinosa hitting 16 homers and driving in 52 runs for the .500 Nationals at the All-Star break?  The rookie of the year favorite, buoyed by the breakout performance of 1B Michael Morse (.306/.351/.535, 15 HRs, 49 RBI) have the surprising Natties in the think of the NL East race.  Washington probably lacks the staying power to hang with the Phillies and Braves, and RF Jayson Werth has been a disappointing in his first season in the nation’s capital (.215/.319/.362, 10 HR,s 31 RBI, 16 doubles in 88 games).  But with young Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan anchoring the rotation, Ryan Zimmerman, Espinosa, Morse, and catcher Wilson Ramos heading an improving young lineup, and the promise of RHP Stephen Strasburg and OF Bryce Harper on the horizon, the Nasty Nats are poised and ready for contention in the next year or 2.  In the mean time, their best finish since their first year in D.C. in 2005 (81-81) is more than reasonable.

• Speaking of worlds we live in, how good has Jose Reyes been this year?!  League-best marks in hits (124) and average (.354)?  A .529 slugging percentage despite only 3 home runs?  On pace to challenge the triples record, set in the dead-ball era?  Although now on shelf due to a hamstring injury, Reyes nearly single-handedly kept the Mets in contention, as a team projected for 70 wins at best and is in the midst of an ownership quagmire has managed to hover around the .500 mark.  The Metropolitans remain a long-shot for postseason play, but Reyes’ renaissance has revived fan interest and generated some hope that Reyes may re-up with the club following the 2011 season’s conclusion.

• The June resignation of manager Edwin Rodriguez underscored the lost cause that has become of 2011 Florida Marlins campaign.  The Marlins fell off the face of the earth, following a 31-22 start with a 1-19 face plant.  The team has since rebounded by concluding the 1^st half with an 9-3 spurt, but at 43-48 and no Josh Johnson for possibly the rest of the season, all South Beach fans can look forward is the promise of a brand new ballpark in 2012.

Fearless Forecast:

The fightin’ Phillies outlast the threatening Braves for the NL East title, but do so without the services of RHP Roy Oswalt, who has already started his final game for the Phillies.  The bulging disk in his back knocks him for the remainder of 2011, and the Phils do not pick up his $16 million option for 2012, instead choosing to reallocate their resources elsewhere … 2B Dan Uggla finally wakes up from his prolonged season-long slump and submits a .240/.300/.450 batting line in the 2^nd half, adding the bat Atlanta needs from within and leading the Braves to the brink of the NL East title before settling for the wild card … SS Jose Reyes, adequately rested following a minor hamstring injury, continues on his MVP tear and finishes the 2011 season with line of .345/.400/.520 line (winning his first batting title in a runaway), 7 homers, 70 RBI, and 65 stolen bases.  But his Mets, unable to find an adequate trade partner thanks to an unwilling group of suitors and no right match, keep Reyes the rest of the season, finish in a distant 4^th place, make a competitive offer to him in the offseason – only to see him sign with their cross-town rival New York Yankees for an 8-year deal.  The Yankees install him as their shortstop, don’t pick up Nick Swisher’s option, and send Derek Jeter to right field … Jack McKeon doesn’t save the Fish this time around, as the loss of RHP Josh Johnson (who ends up missing the rest of the season) and the perplexing fall from grace of SS Hanley Ramirez lead the Marlins to the depths of the NL East.

NL CENTRAL

Preseason Pick                Halfway Mark                            Midseason Prediction

Y - Reds 91-71                 Brewers 49-43                              Y -Brewers 89-73

Brewers 89-73                  Cardinals 49-43                             Reds 87-75

Cardinals 85-77                 Pirates 47-43                                Cardinals 85-77

Cubs 80-82                       Reds 45-47                                   Pirates 78-84

Astros 76-86                     Cubs 37-55                                   Cubs 69-93

Pirates 60-102                   Astros 30-62                                Astros 65-97

A look back:

• As Buster Olney wrote in his recent column, the Brewers pushed all their chips in the middle of those that brought starters Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, clearly suggest a 2011-or-bust strategy for Milwaukee.  Greinke has been erratic at best, with a 5.45 ERA in 74.1 innings and posting incredibly profound home-road splits (home: 5-0, 4.09 ERA, .722 OPS allowed, 15.5 K/BB; road: 2-3, 7.42 ERA, .840 opposing OPS, 3.08 K/BB).  The Marcum trade has gone better, as he has a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 111 innings.  The Crew is relying heavily on these pitchers and on Yovani Gallardo to make a deep playoff run, as 1B Prince Fielder’s impending free agency is looming large.

• Boy, I sure got the Albert-Pujols-for-NL-MVP call wrong, didn’t I?  My anticipation of his entering into Eff-You Mode due to a lack of a contract extension with St. Louis didn’t exactly come to fruition, as the 3-time MVP stumbled to .245/.305/.453 April.  But he recovered to post a .280/.357/.500 first half, and shook off a scary wrist injury to miss just 2 weeks and return to the potent Cardinals lineup (5^th in MLB with 433 runs scored).  The real story of the first half was RF/1B Lance Berkman, who leads the NL in homers (24), slugging (.602), OPS (1.006), and OPS+ (182, league-average is 100).

• The Buccos! They’re alive!  After 18 consecutive losing seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates on the threshold of ending the streak in 2011, heading into the break with a 47-43 mark.  CF Andrew McCutchen’s rise to prominence finally culminated in an All-Star berth (though it seemed the powers that be were conspiring against him), and the pitching staff led by unlikely stellar quintet of Jeff Karstens, Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald.  The team still lacks much semblance of a major-league caliber lineup (22^nd in MLB in runs), and figures to bow out of the NL Central race at some point.  But the 2011 Pirates have nonetheless awoken a dormant fanbase stunned by the team’s solid play, and inspiring hope that the franchise may finally have a winning plan in place to contend for future playoff berths.

• The under-the-radar disappointing team of the 2011 season has been the Cincinnati Reds, who have seen their ERA ranking drop from 12^th to 24^th as a result of rotation injuries.  Only 3 starters have qualified for the ERA title (Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Bronson Arroyo), and none of that group has an ERA below 4.28.  RHP Edinson Volquez has been a disappointment (5.93 ERA in 16 starts), and fellow starters Johnny Cueto (an outstanding 1.96 ERA in just 12 starts over 82.2 innings) and Homer Bailey (8 starts) have missed time due to injury.  The Reds are, however, the most potent scoring team in the National League (437 runs in 92 games), thanks to a banner defending MVP-year from 1B Joey Votto (.945 OPS) and a breakout campaign from OF Jay Bruce (team-best 21 homers), who made his first All-Star team.

• North Side faithful are already pulling out the “wait till next year” and “when does Bears season start” slogans, counting down the seconds until the 2011 season is mercifully over.  The Cubs are 3^rd-to-last in ERA thanks to a rudderless ship of a starting rotation (5.29 ERA, worst in MLB).  The trade watch is already on, as RHP Carlos Zambrano, 3B Aramis Ramirez, and OF Alfonso Soriano are shopped for future pieces and/or salary relief.

• Similarly to Chicago, Houston’s season ended in May, as the Astros are in the midst of what is sure to become their worst season as a member of the NL Central, and last with GM Ed Wade in charge.  The team is due to be sold, and the new owner should look no farther than the other team in the state of Texas in terms of how to properly transition into new ownership and put a winning organization together.  All-Star OF Hunter Pence is the lone quality player on the roster, and it will takes several years of building before Houston is competitive again.

Fearless Forecast:

The addition of RHP Francisco Rodriguez at the All-Star break caused quite a stir for Brewer faithful, but the man formerly known as K-Rod saves just 3 games the rest of the way for Milwaukee, who are very well aware of the $17.5-option he is due should he finish 55 games.  Current closer John Axford is unaffected by any K-Rod-to-closer talk, saving 20 more games and dwarfing Rodriguez’s K/BB ratio (11.54 vs. 9.70) … With the rotation floundering and LHP Aroldis Chapman improving as relief, the Reds stretch him out and move him into the rotation for the final 6 weeks of the season.  Cincy makes a late push to repeat as NL Central champs, but falls just short, as Milwaukee’s all-in plan prevails by just 2 games … Despite arguably the best 3-4-5 hitter combo in the league, the Cardinals fall to a 3^rd-place finish in division, as the Berkman’s production tails off considerably in the 2^nd half.  The spring training loss of RHP Adam Wainwright comes back to rear its ugly head, with the pitching staff unable to be saved by the likes of Kyle Lohse, Jason Motte, and Fernando Salas … The Pirates’ brass sticks to its building plan, eschewing thoughts of trading for stars like David Wright and add only a marginal relief pitcher to the team before the August 31 waiver deadline.  Lacking impact bats, Pittsburgh falls to 4^th place, but instills the long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel for their tortured fans … The Cubs trade 3B Aramis Ramirez to the Angels, but are predictably unable to find a taker for the albatross that is OF Alfonso Soriano.  GM Jim Hendry is shedding as much as salary as he can as he begins his pitch to steal a certain rival first baseman who wears currently Red and White … At the last minute, Astros GM Ed Wade realizes how dumb trading OF Hunter Pence is, hanging on to the All-Star outfielder and allowing the new GM to build around him in 2012 and beyond.  Pence is not able to save the Astros from plummeting to their worst season in 20 years, however.

NL WEST

Preseason Pick             Halfway Mark                     Midseason Prediction

Y - Giants 92-70            Giants 52-40                          Giants 93-69

Rockies 89-73                Diamondbacks 49-43            Rockies 84-78

Dodgers 84-78               Rockies 43-48                       Diamondbacks 80-82

Padres 76-86                 Dodgers 41-51                       Dodgers 75-87

Diamondbacks 69-93     Padres 40-52                         Padres 72-90

A look back:

• The devastating Buster Posey injury has not stopped the Giants, who have compiled a 25-18 record since their star catcher went down with torn ankle ligaments.  The pitching is actually better than last year (3.19 ERA this season vs. a league-best 3.36 ERA last year), and the club, despite its offensive issues, remains the biggest threat to the favored Phillies for the NL pennant.

• The underrated surprise MLB team of 2011 not getting the headlines of Cleveland or Pittsburgh has been the All-Star Game hosts, the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Everyone knew the team could hit (7^th in MLB with 416 runs scored, 6^th with 102 home runs) thanks to the bandbox they play in, but few could foresee the sudden ascent of the pitching staff (an improvement from a 4.81 ERA last year, 3^rd-worst in the league, to 4.08 this year).  The bullpen has been the main catalyst, improving a league-worst ERA last year (5.74) which was a full run worse than the next worst team nearly 2 runs to 3.98.

• It’s been a Tale of Two Seasons for RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.  He sits at a disappointing 4-8 record and 4.14 ERA this year after posting a 15-1 mark and 2.20 ERA heading into last year’s All-Star break.  His personal collapse has mirrored his Rockies’ free fall, as the club finished 43-48 at this year’s break and 8.5 games back after being only 2 games out of 1^st place year with a 49-39 mark.  The loss of LHP Jorge de la Rosa has also hurt, as has the relative struggles of SS Troy Tulowitzki (.249/.302/.419 in his last 70 games after a .364/.486/.836 start to the year), but the team goes as Jimenez goes, and it hasn’t gone real far in 2011.

• The ongoing divorce saga as evolved into a bankruptcy case, as Frank McCourt continues to press on in the desperate hope that he can continue to use the Dodgers as his personal ATM retains his ownership of the Dodgers (brilliantly detailed in this column).  As a result, their finances are completely locked down, with no pieces moving on or off the team.  OF Matt Kemp has posted an MVP-type season (.313/.398/.584, 22 HRs, 67 RBI, 27 stolen bases), but he hasn’t gotten much help, and consequently, his team is mired in 4^th place without much hope.

• As has been the case for much of the recent history since moving into Petco Park, the Padres have been at or near the top in the league in pitching (5^th this year in overall ERA at 3.23, and 1^st in bullpen ERA at 2.84), and in the dregs of the league offensively (2^nd to last in runs scored at 304 in 92 games).  The departure of 1B Adrian Gonzalez has predictably played a large role in their fall, as the Pads are 13 games worse now than they were at this same point last season (51-37, 40-52).  The youthful Anthony Rizzo, acquired in the Gonzo trade, provides the long-term view at the position, but he still has quite a bit of development left to go (.165/.304/.306, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 doubles, 13 walks in 102 plate appearances spanning 28 games).

Fearless Forecast:

Despite an offense ranking 4^th-to-last with just 332 runs scored, the Giants make no marquee offensive addition (other than the promotion of prospect Brandon Belt), yet still cruise to the NL West title a minimum of 9 games better than the 2^nd-place challenger … The Rockies resist the temptation to move Ubaldo Jimenez and improve considerably in the season’s 2^nd half thanks to a resurgence from SS Troy Tulowitzki and the continued outstanding pitching of young Jhoulys Chacin, rallying past Arizona in the division but fall well short of a playoff berth … With starter Ian Kennedy approaching an innings total far surpassing the next largest mark of his career, and with youngsters Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter also reaching career-high usage rates, they hit walls as the 2011 season arrives its twilight, and Arizona falls back and finishes in 3^rd place … With the ownership situation a total clusterf**k, the Dodgers don’t sell any pieces from their major league roster.  That means potentially valuable trade chips like Hiroki Kuroda and Jamey Carroll remain as Dodgers until season’s end …  Contrary to what the rumor suggests, Mike Adams is NOT traded by the Padres thanks to his affordability next season, and steps into Bell’s place as closer.

Postseason predictions

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Yankees over Twins (sigh)                            Red Sox over Twins

Red Sox over A’s                                              Yankees over Rangers

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Red Sox over Yankees                                   Red Sox over Yankees

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Reds over Phillies                                             Phillies over Brewers

Giants over Braves                                          Giants over Braves

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Reds over Giants                                              Phillies over Giants

WORLD SERIES

Preseason Pick:                                                                Midseason Pick:

Red Sox over Reds                                          Red Sox over Phillies

Awards

MVP

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals                           SS Jose Reyes, Mets

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees                        1B Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

Cy Young

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

Felix Hernandez, Mariners                           Justin Verlander, Tigers

Josh Johnson, Marlins                                    Roy Halladay, Phillies

Rookie of the Year

Preseason Picks:                                              Midseason Picks:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays                       RHP Michael Pineda, Mariners

1B Brandon Belt, Giants                                2B Danny Espinosa, Nationals

Thursday Five-Spot

• Novak Djokovic the new king of tennis

He's done it!

Federer what?  Nadal who?  There’s a newly-crowned champion of tennis, and it’s the fresh-faced former imitation artist who hails from Serbia and is 5 days younger than the writer of this blog.  The way Novak Djokovic pushed around the 2-time defending champion of tennis’ crown jewel tournament, the former #1 player in the world, was incredible.  His movement was extremely impressive, he seemed to make fewer errors than Nadal (which is no small feat), took charge at net when he had to, and gave Rafael Nadal next to nothing on his service games for 3 of the 4 sets.

The one thing I noticed as I was following Djokovic’s ascent up the points this year was how much different he looked physically.  He always seemed to break down toward the end of matches as recently as last year; no longer.  And not only that, he seems to have a newfound mental strength that he’s never had before, digging deep to find the positive belief that separates the good tennis players from the immortals. 

Against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semifinals, Djokovic cruised to the first 2 sets and broke early in the 3^rd, poised for a straight-sets win.  But Novak’s serve was broken midway through the set, and he lost an extremely hard-fought tiebreaker 11-9.  How did he respond? By breaking Tsonga’s first service game in the next set (the same Tsonga who lost just 1 service game, his 1^st, in his comeback-from-2-sets-down quarterfinal triumph over 6-time champion Roger Federer), and taking care of business the rest of the way.

Against Nadal, he won the 1^st 2 sets convincingly – and then appeared to mail in the 3^rd set (he lost 6-1).  His response: immediately breaking Nadal in the 4^th set, just like against Tsonga.  And just like the previous, he took care of business, serving out his 1^st Wimbledon championship and the 3^rd major of his young career.

At age 24, Djokovic’s dream has finally be realized: he is the #1 tennis player in the world; and unlike the fraudulent rankings on the women’s side in which players without a single major to her name can be #1 (*ahem* Wozniacki *ahem*), it actually means something in men’s tennis.  Mad props to you sir, but don’t rest on your laurels: Nadal, Federer and company will be waiting for you all summer long right into the final Grand Slam of the summer, the U.S. Open at Flushing Meadows.

• Fausto Carmona injury running the bases

Fail.

Heading into his start in Houston on June 15, 2008, Yankees ace right-hander Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He was 7-2 with a 4.30 ERA, and his 45 wins to that point since the start of the 2006 season were the most in baseball.  That night he went out and fired 5 shutout innings against the Astros and picked up his eventual 8^th win.

But that night would end Wang’s career as we knew it.

After reaching on a fielder’s choice in the top of the 6^th, Wang went to 2^nd on an error, and scored on a single by SS Derek Jeter.  But as he was coming in from 3^rd, he hobbled across the plate and had to be helped off the field.  He was later diagnosed with a torn tendon and sprained right ankle, and needed a walking boot for six weeks.

Tragically for Wang, that ended his 2008 season, and he was never the same pitcher again.  He posted a 1-6 record and 9.64 ERA in 12 starts in 2009, and wasn’t retained after that season by New York.  He’s currently toiling in the low minors of the Washington Nationals system, and has thrown just 14 innings so far in 2011.

Fast-forward to this past Saturday night.  In the 3^rd inning of their game in Cincinnati, Cleveland pitcher Fausto Carmona squares and lays down a less-than-quality bunt, causing the catcher to throw to 2^nd to attempt to force the lead runner.  But thanks to a questionable umpiring call, all runners are safe.  However, unbeknownst to Reds SS Paul Janish, who had begun arguing to no avail with the umpire, Carmona had toppled over the 1^st base bag and fallen belly-first to the ground and was briefly writhing in pain.  Had Janish thrown back to first, Carmona may have been out.

After the game, Carmona landed on the disabled list with an injured quad (check out the video in that link; as insensitive as it may be since a player gets hurt, the video is still quite comical, with the commentator stating “Humpty Dumpty just had a great fall”). 

Immediately following the Wang injury, Yankees co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner crushed the National League for making their pitchers bat and run the bases, claiming “they have enough to do without having to do that.”  Another starting pitcher, Mike Mussina, also complained that AL pitchers only have maybe four or five at-bats per year, so injuries like Wang’s are not exactly surprising.

Honestly, I’m a little perplexed this isn’t a bigger story.  Granted, Cleveland isn’t exactly New York, and Carmona’s injury is likely far less serious and career-threatening than Wang’s proved to be.  But shouldn’t there be a bigger stink over whether pitchers should bat at all?  It seems like this could serve as a referendum on interleague play as a whole, which is particularly impactful now, as Major League Baseball approaches the end of its current Collective Bargaining Agreement (there’s that ugly “CBA” acronym again, that most fans are probably sick of seeing at this point thanks to the NFL’s and NBA’s simultaneous lockouts).  Baseball is already talking about realignment, with Houston expected to switch to the American League.  This would even out the two leagues at 15 teams apiece, and create one perpetual interleague matchup throughout the entire season (cut to baseball purists screaming their discontent and horror over this proposition).  So what happens then?  Are the rules kept the same, with American League teams potentially risking the health of their pitchers in late-season interleague series with the postseason on the line?  Or are the rules changed, removing the Designated Hitter completely or making it league-wide?

There will likely be a great deal of pushback to either potential rule change, given the DH’s staying power since 1973.  The players union in particular will probably never agree to the abolition of the position, given the extension of players’ careers in the role after their in-the-field playing days are over (Vladimir Guerrero and Jim Thome come to mind), and when entire careers can be made playing this position (think Edgar Martinez and David “Big Papi” Ortiz).  But if realignment takes place and interleague is played every night, how can this issue not be addressed?  It should be a fascinating discussion following the conclusion of the 2011 campaign.

• Ron Gardenhire orders an intentional walk in the 4^th inning

If baseball had a segment like Monday Night Football's "Come on, man!", this decision would make the list.

This past Sunday afternoon, in a tie game at 1-1 in the 4^th inning, Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn was facing a runner-on-3^rd, 1-out situation.  All-Star 1B Prince Fielder was coming to the plate, with backup 1B Mat Gamel waiting on deck.  Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire made the decision to intentionally walk the slugger to set up the double play.  The move backfired badly, as the next four Brewers reached base en route to a 5-run inning that put Milwaukee ahead 6-1.

Look, I understand the logic behind the move: great hitter, open base at 1^st, sets up the double play, yada yada yada.  My counter: it’s the 4^th inning!  You really don’t trust your starting pitcher to get this guy out?  I know Blackburn is very hittable (.291 career batting average against), but Prince is 2-for-13 against him for his career!  Even if you give up a home run, or a sacrifice fly, so what?  The bases are clear, you’re only down one or two runs, Blackburn starts fresh from the wind up, and maybe the inning is different.  And moreover, you still have SIX more innings worth of at-bats!  Heck, maybe you even retire Fielder without the run scoring.  But instead, you put an extra baserunner on, distracting Blackburn, enabling the Brewers to be more aggressive, giving Gamel an extra RBI opportunity, and decreasing your chances at limited the damage the Milwaukee offense can create.

In the 8^th inning, I would it; in the 4^th inning, no.

So in the immortal words of ESPN’s Tony Cornheiser: Ron Gardenhire, go to your room.

• Mauer to play 1^st on Thursday

Now this just looks weird.

Yep, this is really happening.  And I must say I’m stunned.  I really didn’t expect the Minnesota Twins organization to be swayed so thoroughly by the media and blogosphere.  Yet here we are: catcher Joe Mauer, the $184-million man, is expected to take the field not at his usual catching position, but at first base, a position which he has not played since the minor leagues in 2003.

This all seems very odd because, well, the Twins have told us for the last FIVE YEARS that they had no plans to move him from behind the plate.  Mauer was their catcher, they said.  And that makes sense; why pay a player $23 million per year if he didn’t play a premium position, wasn’t one of the best hitters in the entire league, and wasn’t expected to be over the duration of the contract? 

Yet here we are.  He didn’t play the position while rehabbing his injuries this year or in years past, and has only taken ground balls there over the past 2 weeks or so.  Now we’re going to throw him right into the fire, against a division rival in Chicago no less?!

It all seems a little crazy to me.  But it really does seem the franchise is resigned to the fact that the only way Mauer will be able to stay healthy is if he plays catcher only part-time, at most, and that perhaps a position switch is in his long-term future.  And besides, Mauer’s injury history is well-documented.

And that all makes sense too.  Except when you realize this guy is going to be making $23 million-per-year for 8 years.  The team signed him to the monster contract anyway, despite the fact that he’d missed no fewer than 22 games in all but one season, and had had FOUR major injuries and/or surgeries prior to the pact’s signing.  And that 1B Justin Morneau, despite his current injury plight, is under contract for THREE MORE YEARS.  How’s that contract looking now?

Listen, I’m as ardent a Twins fan as there is.  I absolutely hope Mauer can succeed as the 1^st baseman; he’s gotta be better than Luke Hughes, and as much as I trust Michael Cuddyer, his arm is suited for right field.  Maybe with this arrangement, Thome can get every day at-bats as the DH and everything will be just fine and dandy.

But the contract is simply too large to ignore.  The front office absolutely had to get this signing done, there’s no question about it.  But if they were so uncertain of his ability to stay healthy at catcher, why agree to the deal if it only makes sense when he plays every day at catcher?  Why only admit this now, halfway into season ONE of the eight-year deal?  What happens when Morneau comes back?

Huge contracts such as this one rarely turn out well; this one appears to be no exception, even if Mauer proves to be healthier at a different position.

• The lockout mess

Get 'er done, fellas.

And so it finally seems, after more than 100 days, that the NFL lockout is nearing its long-overdue end.  Even with all the lawyer haggling and the news that a deal is not imminent, it does seem like the owners and player representatives do have souls after all and will complete a deal ahead of next Friday’s (July 15) essentially drop-dead date before cancellations were to take place.  This will set off a free agency frenzy, as both veterans and undrafted free agents will finally learn where they will be playing in the 2011 season, and just in time, too (the first training camps begin July 22, with the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio between St. Louis and Chicago scheduled for August 7.

Unfortunately, the NBA’s future is much murkier. Unlike in the NFL, where the owners already had a good deal and locked out the players in an attempt to rip them off and get a great deal, the NBA’s current model is failing.  Several teams are losing money, that’s undisputed.  What is unclear is just how many teams are losing money, and to what degree.  This column by Larry Coon (the guru of the NBA salary cap and creator of the NBA Salary Cap FAQ website) detailed the mess that has taken hold of the Association.   There are three main problems confronting the opposing sides of this argument: 1) the amount of money that is going to be split amongst the owners and players, including the definition of Basketball Related Income (or BRI) 2) the revenue sharing component in which richer markets (i.e. New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami) must share their income with smaller markets (Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Portland, Sacramento, Minnesota) in an effort to create competitive balance, and 3) the system that will be put in place, which likely will result in a switch from the “soft” salary cap that exists today to a hard cap without the number of exceptions that existed in the previous CBA. 

The NFL’s situation was ugly, but it never really was in great danger of missing games.  Both sides understand what’s at stake; and the ramifications of missed games, both financially and publicly from media and fans, were too great to allow.

The NBA is in completely different waters, and the fight is going to be nasty.  A precedent exists here: the NHL locked out its players during the entire 2004-05 season in an effort to instill a never-before-seen hard salary cap, and nearly lost its footing as a major North American sport as a result.  It has come back much stronger since then, but still is working out its TV deals (Versus is not available on many cable packages), and where its teams will play its games (Atlanta recently moved to Winnipeg).

I absolutely believe the entire 2011-12 season NBA season could be lost as well, given that the owners are willing to hamstring the players into getting what they want (a complete restructuring of BRI, a hard salary cap of a dramatically-reduced sum as low as $45-million, etc.).  I haven’t heard decertification of the National Basketball Players Association talked of much (Derek Fisher stated it would only happen “when your hand is forced” and if there does not exist “another option”).  But if the NFLPA is capable of decertifying and taking the league to court, so too is the NBPA.  Nothing good would come of legal battles, as we’ve seen in the NFL. 

These lockout debacles remind me a lot of divorce court.  One parent sues another, financial terms are bantered about back and forth, and custody battles often take place.  All the while, the children are left to wallow in the wind, unsure of the future, wondering if the parents care at all.  The opposing sides of these fights are the parents, and we fans are the children.  Don’t you care?  Don’t you love us at all?