It's that time of year again: MLB SEASON PREDICTIONS

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

You'll see a little bit of everything is column.  A little chalk, a little boldness.  A little homerism, a lot of objectivity. Here are my predictions sure to go wrong in 2011:

AL EAST

Y - Red Sox 98-64

X - Yankees 92-70

Rays 87-75

Blue Jays 82-80

Orioles 74-88

Rock Sawx Red Sox

• Sorry O’s fans, but I’m not buying into the local hype machine.  This team is definitely better than last year’s version, and the end of season momentum (a 34-23 finish under new manager Buck Showalter following a pitiful 32-73 start), but it is not going to reflect in the standings.  Derrek Lee and Vlad Guerrero are gambles to stay healthy, Mark Reynolds will provide a whole lot of strikeouts to go along with a whole lot of power, and while the pitching will continue to improve, this team is still a couple of years away from contending.  And besides, have you seen the rest of the division?!
• All the Red Sox did was add the 2010-11 offseason’s best free agent position player (LF Carl Crawford) while acquiring another elite talent via trade (1B Adrian Gonzalez).  Buoyed by the healthy return of 3B Kevin Youkilis, the Sawx will be able to beat you with power or on the basepaths with Crawford, CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and do-it-all 2B Dustin Pedroia.
• Organizationally, the Red Sox under GM Theo Epstein are at the forefront of the new age of sabermetric analysis, and that includes defensive metrics (the idea of Run Prevention).  After failing to implement this strategy properly last year (37-year-old Mike Cameron doesn’t equal 27-year-old Mike Cameron), the Sawx got it right this year.  Runs will be at a premium against this team; Crawford and Gonzalez have 3 Gold Gloves between them.   Expect bounce-back years from Josh Beckett and John Lackey to fortify an already outstanding rotation.
• Speaking of organizational strategy, the Rays had a book written about their rise to prominence over the last 3 seasons (which I can’t wait to read), and don’t believe for one second that just because Crawford no longer mans left field that this team all of a sudden has reverted back to its Devil Ray days.  Jeremy Hellickson enters the year as the Rookie of the Year favorite and should step in seamlessly for the departed Matt Garza, and the offense and new-look bullpen are absolutely good enough for the Rays to win 90 games and contend for a Wild Card spot at worst.
• But alas, the big bad Bombers from the Bronx haven’t exactly gotten worse, and should be right back in the postseason in 2011.  3B Alex Rodriguez looked downright spry during spring training, dropping 10 pounds during the offseason and not seeming to show any signs of the lack of mobility from the hip injury that affected him much of last season.  The offense will be its usual potent self (2B Robinson Cano is my MVP Pick), the rotation will be solid if unspectacular, and the addition of RHP Rafael Soriano solidifies the 8^th inning role in front of ageless wonder CP Mariano Rivera.
• As for our neighbors to the north, the Jays quietly continue to progress into AL East contenders.  Brett Lawrie, who came over in the Shawn Marcum trade, has a chance to be the Rookie of the Year given playing time (and a set position), and the underrated starting staff (including former Maryland Terrapin Brett Cecil) will keep the Jays in a lot of a games.  Oh, and they haven’t lost any of that power either (a league-best 257 home runs in 2010, 46 better than the next closest).  The Jays still don’t have the horses to get past the big boys of the division… but they’re getting there.  Stay tuned.

AL CENTRAL

Y - Twins 90-72

White Sox 87-75

Tigers 83-79

Royals 64-98

Indians 61-101

The man who will give Twins fans nightmares in the late innings of games this season.

• I’ve been hearing a familiar tune from some sportswriters again this year: THIS IS THE YEAR the Twins are toppled as division champs, this time by the Adam-Dunn-led White Sox.  All I have to say is: can we get some RESPEK?!  Call me a homer, but I don’t care: I have my beloved Minnesota Boys of Summer moving on to play in October once again this year, as the Twins’ dominance of intradivisional play shall continue (136-82 against the Central combined the last 3 years for a winning percentage of .624).  The rotation returns Carl Pavano to anchor a deep rotation that has forced former starters Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins to the bullpen, and Jim Thome was re-signed to provide power at the DH spot and off the bench.  The status of Justin Morneau as he returns from last season’s concussion, coupled with the re-made bullpen and new-look infield, remain questions as Opening Day approaches, but no team is without question marks.  I choose to believe in optimism, as do my fellow Twins fan-brethren, and I foresee October baseball returning to Twins territory in 2011.
• That said, the White Sox are undeniably a stronger team, at least at the outset of the 2011 season.  The addition of Adam Dunn adds muscle to an already-potent lineup, and should form a nice middle-of-the-order 1-2 punch with Paul Konerko, who is coming off a career year and is armed with a new lucrative contract.  The ill-fated trade for Jake Peavy continues to loom large for Chicago, however, as they bet 4 prospects that Peavy would get them over the top and into the World Series.  But the oft-injured right-hand ace continues to remain sidelined following last season’s freak injury in which his right latissimus dorsi tendon had completely torn off the bone (and injury never before suffered by a major leaguer).  Peavy has been limited to just 33 starts the last 2 seasons, and is set to miss at least the first month of 2011 as well.  His health could be the difference in determining the AL Central winner.
• The Tigers are betting on Phil Coke and Brad Penny to round out an otherwise solid rotation, and healthy seasons from position players like Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez.  I don’t see it.  Justin Verlander will be a Cy Young contender, however.
• The Royals have hope on the horizon with some of the game’s best young prospects set to arrive within the next 2 seasons.  But 2011 looks very bleak, especially without Zack Greinke.  Your opening day starter for Kansas City: Luke Hochevar.  Yikes.
• And Cleveland… yikes.  Keep an eye on C Carlos Santana however, who is coming off major knee surgery.  This kid can really rake, and could easily already be the best player on the Indians roster (especially given the health question marks of CF Grady Sizemore).

AL WEST

Y - A’s 87-75

Rangers 86-76

Angels 76-86

Mariners 63-99

These kids are alright.

• The A’s?!?! Oh yes, that’s not a misprint.  I love the A’s rotation of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden, who will give Oakland a chance to win any game.  Scoring runs will still be difficult, but the additions of Hideki Matsui , Josh Willingham, and David DeJesus provide a nice infusion of offense, and the bullpen will continue to be its stellar self (and now includes Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes).  The injury to 2010 Rookie of the Year close Andrew Bailey is a concern, but should he return to health, I like the A’s to make their first postseason since 2006.
• It will be a close race, however, as the Rangers seek to defend their 2010 AL pennant.  The Rangers added 3B Adrian Beltre to an already explosive lineup, and still have plenty of relievers that fire bullets.  But leaving Neftali Feliz as the closer instead of moving him to the rotation is a questionable decision, and the rotation has question marks across the board, especially following the departure of ace Cliff Lee.
• The Angels are paying a lot of money to outfielders now, especially following the ill-conceived trade for middling CF-turned-corner-outfielder Vernon Wells.  1B Kendrys Morales remains sidelined (now with an injury different from the broken leg he suffered last season) as well.  A lot of things have to go right for the Angels to win this division, and though it is not inconceivable, it’s unlikely.
• The only bright spot in Seattle is reigning Cy Young Felix Hernandez, who is my pick to win the award again.  My plea to Seattle: DON’T TRADE THE KING TO THE YANKEES!!!! It’s not as far-fetched as you might think…

NL EAST

Y - Phillies 93-69

X - Braves 90-72

Marlins 86-76

Nationals 72-90

Mets 68-94

You may have heard a little something about this group before.

• The Phillies have quite possibly the best rotation we’ve seen in 20 years, at least on paper.  But games aren't played on paper, and everywhere else, there are concerns.  Closer Brad Lidge is expected to miss 3-6 weeks with a shoulder problem, but that is an injury that could linger.  And All-Star 2B Chase Utley may need surgery on his knee that could prevent him from playing at all in 2011.  In addition, 3B Placido Polanco is also hurt, as is OF Domonic Brown, who wouldn't have made the big club anyway.  I still expect the Phillies to be the class of the NL East, but it’s no guarantee…
• … and that’s because the Atlanta Braves aren’t far behind them, given the Philadelphia injury situation.  RF Jason Heyward looks to build on his 2011 Runner-up ROY campaign, he is joined in the lineup by 2011 Rookie of the Year contender 1B Freddie Freeman, the starting pitching is deep with Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor waiting in the wings should an injury occur (we’re looking at you, Jair Jurrjens) and the bullpen is outstanding in the back end with flame-throwers LHP Jonny Venters and RHP Craig Kimbrel.  The question is whether this is 3B Chipper Jones’ last rodeo, and if C Brian McCann will return to his 2009 form after diminishing returns in 2010.  I like the Braves to win the 2011 Wild Card, just as they did in 2010.
• Lots of young Fish down in Miami… and Josh Johnson.  The Marlins electric right-hander had the lowest ERA in the majors last year (2.30), this wasn't a fluke (his FIP of 2.41 was also the best in the league, and is a better indicator of how good a pitcher was than ERA), and could have won the Cy Young award had he not been injured in September of last season.  No matter: he’ll win it this year.  But alas, that’s all Fish fans will be cheering for, as Florida will fall short in 2011.  Fortunately, they have this to look forward to in 2012.
• The 2010 season of excitement gives way to the 2011 season of transition in the nation’s capital, as Stephen “the Chosen One” Strasburg sits out the entire year as he rehabs following Tommy John surgery.  And don’t expect to see 18-year-old phenom Bryce Harper in the Bigs this year, either.  But the much-ballyhooed addition of RF Jayson Werth keeps the optimism rolling in Washington, and the affectionately-called Natties finish out of the basement in 2011.
• And then we have the Metropolitans, who sit on the opposite end of the optimism spectrum from Washington, as the Mets are forced to deal with the dark cloud of the ownership situation that so harshly and unfortunately resembles that which continues to plague the L.A. Dodgers.  The players may say it won’t affect their every-day business on the field, but it will.  Not that it matters, because the team will stink anyway.  CF Carlos Beltran and SS Jose Reyes are injuries waiting to happen (and may be traded anyway), and ace LHP Johan Santana figures to miss the first half of the season at a minimum.  It’s going to be a bleak summer in Queens.

NL CENTRAL

Y - Reds 91-71

Brewers 89-73

Cardinals 85-77

Cubs 80-82

Astros 76-86

Pirates 60-102

When mustaches attack!

• Speaking of RESPEK?!?!, why do so few believe the Reds will repeat?  1B Joey Votto returns from an MVP 2010 season, RF Jay Bruce and CF Drew Stubbs look to build on breakout 2010 campaigns, the rotation remains solid and deep, and still doesn’t include flame-throwing lefty Aroldis Chapman, who eventually figures to step into the rotation.  Give me the Red Machine in 2011 to not only repeat as NL Central champs, but to be the National League representative in the World Series.   Yup, you heard me.
• I’m not as concerned about the Brewers injuries (aka Greinke) as others.  The Brewers desperately needed to add pitching, and accomplished it by adding Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to form a strong top-3 with holdover Yovani Gallardo.  That rotation, to go with a strong lineup anchored by 1B Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun and a bullpen led by underrated 2^nd-year closer John Axford (with a mustache that would make Rollie Fingers jealous) make the Brewers a dangerous team heading into 2011.  All the cards are on the table for the Brew Crew; it’s now or never (Fielder is set to be a free agent following the season).
• The loss of stud RHP Adam Wainwright dooms the Cards’ chances at contending in an improved NL Central.   Let’s just say I’m just not a believer in converted reliever Kyle McClellan.  Despite Pujols’ MVP year, the Cards finish in 3^rd.
• The Cubs will be better, through the additions of Garza and 1B Carlos Pena and the addition-by-subtraction of malcontent Carlos Silva.  And this team could contend if they get huge seasons (and great health) from 3B Aramis Ramirez and LF Alfonso Soriano.  Big Ifs.
• Steve Berthiaume of ESPN's Baseball Tonight has the Astros winning the NL Central.  And he’s the only one.  And rightfully so.
• And the Pirates make it 19 straight losing seasons and counting.  Death, taxes, the Pirates stink.

NL WEST

Y - Giants 92-70

Rockies 89-73

Dodgers 84-78

Padres 76-86

Diamondbacks 69-93

Don't sleep on these Defenders of the Mile High.

• The Giants make it back-to-back NL West crowns, though it is not made easy by the competition.  The defending champion rotation’s top 4 of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and World Series hero Madison Bumgarner seek to prove they rival the quartet of Philadelphia (some believe they already do), and the outstanding bullpen led by RHP’s Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo looks to continue its dominance.  The lineup still leaves something to be desired, but with defending ROY C Buster Posey back for his sophomore season and stud 1B Brandon Belt waiting in the wings, the Gigantes are a force to be reckoned with in 2011.
• The Rockies are my 2011 darkhorse.  Plenty of question marks remain in the rotation, but the new contracts given to SS Troy Tulowitzki and CF Carlos Gonzalez are reasons for optimism in Denver.  Though declining, 1B Todd Helton can still hit, and the underrated addition of 3B Ty Wigginton provides key insurance for solid lefty swinger Ian Stewart.  Good health for closer Huston Street would go a long way to ensure the Rox stay in contention in 2011.
• The McCourt divorce still lingers over Dodgerland, as the ownership situation remains unsettled.  The quagmire clearly affected the team’s play on the field, as no impact addition (aside from Ted Lilly) could be made midseason, and a 95-win NL West champion Dodger team from 2009 declined to an 80-win, 4^th-place finish in 2010.  CF Matt Kemp went from franchise cornerstone to washed-up in one season, and RF Andre Ethier and 1B James Loney declined as well.  I expect a bounce-back year from each of these guys, but the team doesn’t improve enough to return to the postseason.
• The feel-good story of 2010, the Padres, will hit the wall of reality hard in 2011.  All-Star 1B Adrian Gonzalez is gone, RHP Mat Latos will start the season on the DL, and closer Heath Bell likely will be traded (and should fetch a bounty of prospects).  The Friars won’t be terrible, as I still have them winning 76 games thanks to a strong young rotation.  But don’t expect a 2^nd-straight year of contention from San Diego.
• And as for the team that hails from the desert, the Diamondbacks are in rebuilding mode, as they are currently breaking in a new front office led by new GM Kevin Towers.  Gone are the leading (Mark Reynolds) and 4^th-leading (Adam LaRoche) strikeout kings of 2010, but a rotation whose opening day starter is Ian Kennedy doesn’t inspire much confidence.  SS Stephen Drew and RF Justin Upton remain building blocks for the Snakes, but there isn’t a whole lot to look forward to in Arizona this season.  I do like RHP Daniel Hudson, acquired from the White Sox last season, to be a nice starting pitching cornerstone for the D-Backs as well.

Postseason predictions

Expect more of this in October.

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Yankees over Twins (sigh)

Red Sox over A’s

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Red Sox over Yankees

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Reds over Phillies

Giants over Braves

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Reds over Giants

WORLD SERIES

Red Sox over Reds

Awards

MVP (for details, check this out)

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals

2B Robinson Cano, Yankees

Cy Young

Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Josh Johnson, Marlins

Rookie of the Year

RHP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays 

1B Brandon Belt, Giants