NBA Draft Thoughts and Notes

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

Biggest Winner: Washington Wizards

#6 pick: PF Jan Vesely, Czech Republic

#18 pick: SF Chris Singleton

#34 pick: G Shelvin Mack

European name, American game.

As if this team didn’t have enough swag with PF’s Andray Blatche and Javale McGee, they added a lot more with Vesely (who proclaimed Blake Griffin was the American Jan Vesely).  Like Griffin, Vesely is an outstanding athlete who is fearless in crashing to the rim, both off the dribble and in transition.  Unlike Griffin, Vesely isn’t particularly strong physically, and while he has a decent outside shot, he’s still very raw overall as a basketball player.  He’ll be a bit of a development project for head coach Flip Saunders, but watching him run the floor and catch alley oops from PG John Wall will be breathtaking and very fun to watch.

Need swag?  The Dunking Ninja’s got it.

Further, the additions of Singleton and Mack add much-needed perimeter defense and leadership to a team in dire need of both.  This article did an amazing job of detailing the issues that plague the Wiz, most notably its shooting (and shot selection … ahem … Jordan Crawford … ahem).  Washington was in the bottom 3^rd of the league in virtually every shooting category.  Now, neither Singleton nor Mack will provide much offensively, and won’t directly address the shooting woes from last season.  But perhaps their dedication to fundamentals and leadership in the locker room could help alleviate the street-ball mentality that permeates throughout the club.  They may accomplish this, they may not.  But it’s certainly worth Washington’s while to find out, and at the very least, they’ll be good character guys that will be rotation players for a long time in this league.

Runner-up: San Antonio, who traded PG George Hill for the #15 pick, SF Kawhi Leonard

Biggest Loser: Gs Jimmer Fredette, #10 to Milwaukee and dealt to Sacramento; and Kemba Walker, #9 to Charlotte (tie)

The savior of Sacramento? Only if he saves basketball in Sacramento.

As discussed on Friday’s NBA Today podcast, Sacramento traded back from the #7 pick to #10 for the right to add salary to a team whose finances are in such disarray that the team has threatened to move to Anaheim, get older, and added another ball-stopper in John Salmons to a team that already has G Tyreke Evans, PF DeMarcus Cousins, SG Marcus Thornton (and now rookie F Tyler Honeycutt, as well).  By all accounts, the Maloof brothers, the owners of the Kings, were in love with Jimmer, but the basketball staff convinced them that #7 was too high for him.  So they trade back and still take him at #10, and add another player to the roster who really can’t help them in any feasible way, yet will be paying him for the next 4 years.  Brilliant.

Lost in translation is poor Jimmer, a very likable, easy-to-root-for kid, to a club with considerable maturity issues.  He fits a huge team need with his incredible shooting ability, but will his teammates get him the ball enough for it to matter?  He’s the ideal fit for this type of team, and can make a considerable impact if given the chance.  The only question is if he will get that chance.  Jimmer deserved to go to better situation, but I have no doubt he’ll make this most of the current one.

On the other coast we have G Kemba Walker, sent to the worst NBA market in the league in Charlotte.  The Bobcats had a great draft, don’t get me wrong; Walker adds a winner’s mentality and a strong all-around game the lineup (though his size may limit him somewhat), and PF Bismack Biyombo brings youth and raw defensive and rebounding ability (but is a massive project).  I just hate the situation for Kemba, who is used to playing in front of electric crowds in the Big East and thrives in pressure situations, like the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden.  Not even Kemba can save the NBA in North Carolina.

Have fun in basketball purgatory, Kemba.

Runner-up: New York (PG Iman Shumpert at #17)

Best Value: G Norris Cole, #28 to Chicago, dealt to Minnesota, dealt again to Miami

"Is that a fade or is that your hair running away from your face?!"

After playing under the largest microscope any team has ever faced in an NBA season, the Miami Heat simply did not have enough help around their 3 All-Stars to achieve their goal of a championship in their 1^st season together (nor did they get enough production from those 3 stars in the final 3 games of that series, but I digress).  We knew the Heat would be great coming into the year, a top-4 team in the Eastern Conference.  What we didn’t know was whether a team of 3 of the top 20 players in the game, including 2 of the top 5, could will their team to a championship and be able to win despite not having any decent role players around them (which goes against the traditional NBA logic of needing 8-9 guys to win a title that we’ve seen for, oh, about 65 years).  Now we know: they can’t.

And moreover, without at least one substantial addition to the lineup, Miami may not return to the NBA Finals going forward.  Why?  Look at the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics over the past 4 seasons.  From 2008-10, Los Angeles reached the Finals 3 consecutive years.  Boston made the Finals twice over the span, and featured an even older corps than that of the Lakers.  These deep playoff runs have combined to have the effect of playing an entire additional season, on top of 3 82-game regular seasons.  And aside  from Kevin Garnett’s shortened season in 2009 and Andrew Bynum’s ongoing injury concerns, no significant core player on these teams sustained any serious injury over that timeframe.  At some point, that many miles over that short a period of time had to add up right?  And this year, we saw that: the Lakers completely disintegrated during Dallas’ 4-game pasting in the 2^nd round, and Garnett clearly was not the same guy in games 4 and 5 against Miami after being the best player on the floor in Game 3.  The older you get, the less able you are to recover quickly from the punishment of NBA games and seasons.

At ages 29, 26, and 27, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh may not seem all that old.  But the mileage on Wade is incredible, given the amount of responsibility he’s given his Heat team for 8 years, and the punishment he takes given his aggressive style of crashing into the lane and absorbing contact.  James is a much older than 26 from a basketball-prime standpoint, given that he came straight out of high school and has played 82-game seasons for 8 seasons, plus several deep playoff runs.

So now to the point I’ve taken so long to make: without an additional upper-tier role player or 2, it stands to reason that Miami’s stars will wear down earlier than they should, and will never reach the lofty potential they believed they would achieve at this event, nor match the expectations of the less-than-endearing public.

Enter Norris Cole.

Cole has a very low profile, given that he played his college ball at Cleveland State in the Horizon League (also the home of Butler), and not at one of the nation’s bluebloods.  But this kid can flat ball: 4-year starter, averaged 21.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 44 FG%, and 85.3 FT% in his senior year.  He’ll definitely be a rotation guy at the next level, and may step into the starter point guard spot in a year or two.  I like his game a lot, and he’s the type of player that can lighten the load on the Big 3 (or Unholy Trinity, which is my favorite nickname for the Wade/James/Bosh triumvirate).  And with an inexpensive rookie deal, Miami will have him under control cheaply for at least 3 years.

Miami still needs another big and a wing that can shoot (Mike Miller and James Jones could still fill those roles, but need to stay healthy), but Cole is an excellent step in the right direction, and is a steal at the #28 pick.

Runners-up: PG Nolan Smith, #21 to Portland; PF Kenneth Faried, #22 to Denver

Biggest Head-Scratcher: PG Brandon Knight, #8 to Detroit

Could be a great pick, but I'm still a little confused.

By all accounts, Knight is a great kid.  He was a model student at Kentucky, and is clearly skilled enough to be an NBA guard that he was drafted in the top 10 despite having just one collegiate season.

But he’s a combo guard, lacking the pass-first skills needed to be a true point guard, yet not having the size or shooting acumen to be an elite off-guard either.  And besides, don’t the Pistons still have Rodney Stuckey to play this position (whom they traded Chauncey Billups in 2009 to make room for)?  Desperate for size last year, they failed to find a suitable trade to move up to get PF DeMarcus Cousins and settled for the less-skilled Greg Monroe.  This year they sought size again, but with Bismack Biyombo and Tristan Thompson off the board, they settled for who was their best player on the board.  I don’t like to argue with this strategy in general, but given that Stuckey is still on the roster, and given all the moves that were made to accommodate him, this move is questionable at best.  And given the tragic fall from grace of GM Joe Dumars (59 wins just 3 years ago to an average of 32 the last 3 seasons, the epically awful Billups-for-Allen-Iverson swap, the combined $93 million given to Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, the John Kuester debacle from last season), it’s hard to give this team the benefit of the doubt.

Second-Biggest Head-Scratcher: SG Klay Thompson, #11 to Golden State

New coach Mark Jackson preaches defense. Hard to see how Thompson fits than plan.

Warriors brass have spent the last 2 years telling us G’s Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry can be a successful backcourt duo, that they can play off one another, no problem.  Clearly that theory must be out the window.  Thompson brings a similar skill set to the table (skilled athlete, great shooter), which will likely force one of the two young guards out of town.  And given that Ellis has been mentioned in rumors galore this offseason, it’s not difficult to see the writing on the wall.  One possible scenario: Ellis to the Timberwolves for a package surrounding the #2 pick, Derrick Williams.  As much as the Warriors are stacked with great shooting guards who can’t defend, the Wolves are stacked with small forwards (even more so than they are point guards, contrary to popular belief), and have nothing at the 2-guard position.  Now if only the lockout weren’t going to kill the 2011-12 season, we might actually be able to talk about this.  Sigh.

Timberwolves analysis

As much as I like Derrick, I liked Kanter more.

Once again, I’m totally and utterly befuddled by anything David Kahn does (drafting point guards with consecutive top-6 picks in a single draft, not announce a coach’s firing until the day after the draft even though it is painfully obvious that the coach is not coming back, etc.), and the 2011 draft was no exception.  After fielding countless offers for the #2 pick but finding nothing worthwhile (which is a nice way of saying he offered his trash for another GM’s treasure, who probably countered with “either you put Love in this deal or we’re hanging up”), the Wolves went ahead and took the most NBA-ready player in the draft in PF Derrick Williams.  Unfortunately, there are several problems with this pick: the team already has an All-Star at power forward (Kevin Love), and a ridiculous amount of small forwards (Wesley Johnson, Michael Beasley, and Anthony Randolph).  As soon as the pick was made, I announced on Facebook that Williams would be traded by the end of the night, as the Wolves have plenty of other needs (center chief among them), and Williams’ value was far higher than anyone else’s on the roster (aside from Love).  I was personally advocating for Enes Kanter, who is easily the best Euro in the draft and along with Kevin Love would have made rebounding against the Wolves a fool’s errand.  Look, I really like Derrick, and I think in the right situation he could be a borderline All-Star.  But that situation is not in Minnesota.  Kanter should have been the pick.  Sadly, my pleas fell on deaf ears.

More ridiculousness ensued later on, as I anxiously awaited the #20 pick.  And of course, Kahn and his legion of well-respected international scouts (no really, they actually are well-respected) decided on Donatas Motiejunas, the token toolsy yet soft-as-a-pillow European who looks great working out against chairs in an empty gym but won’t cut it on a floor with other actual basketball players who are, you know, tough and physical NBA players.

My sorrow was mediated for a short while, as I heard the pick had been flipped along with 2009 draft bust Jonny Flynn in a 3-way deal that netted a 2013 1^st-round pick, and Norris Cole, whom the Bulls had selected with the #28 pick (and Brad Miller too, but that’s really not exciting, since Miller stopped being good 5 years ago).  As mentioned above, I really like Cole and believe he’ll be a quality scorer off the bench in the league for a long time.  But of course, just like with Mario Chalmers 3 years ago, the Wolves dealt him too, for some Euro named Bojan Bogdanovic (who has buyout issues and likely won’t arrive here for at least another year or 2) and a future 2^nd-rounder or cash considerations (and then he was traded for a future 2^nd-round pick and more cash).

I can’t figure out which strategy Kahn is trying to employ.  Is it the Danny Ainge/Pat Riley ideal of gathering assets and flipping them for an established corps of veterans (like Ainge with KG and Ray Allen, and Riley with Shaq)?  Or is he from the R.C. Buford/Sam Presti school of nailing draft picks and building from within while not signing any average player to an extravagant, Dumars-like contract?  I tend to lean more toward the former, since Kahn’s track record of drafting hasn’t been stellar so far (*cough* Flynn *cough*).  And it’s not like this team has 2 top-15 players on it like Oklahoma City does, or even has a player that projects to reach that level.  But when he’s going to get a deal he likes and pull the trigger?  Or are other GMs so wary of his game of leaking everything to the media that they simply want nothing to do with him?  Whatever the case, given the youth of this team (the team was the 2^nd-youngest in the league last year), youngsters have to be moved for veterans for this team to increase its’ moribund win totals from the 15- and 17-win levels from the past 2 seasons (and especially given the fact that the LA Clippers own the Wolves’ 2012 1^st-round selection thanks to the Sam Cassell trade from 7 years ago that hasn’t been completed yet.  And you think I’m kidding.).  And no, Brad Miller is not enough.

KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHN!!!!!!!!

Jordan Williams analysis

Sigh.

Well, you got your wish, big fella.  Sort of.  After quitting on his teammates by quitting school, Williams was an NBA draft pick, though he predictably fell to the second round, even in a ridiculously watered-down draft that was poor to begin with and made worse by several underclassmen electing to stay in school rather than not play during next season’s lockout.  Instead, Williams gets to rot, without any money (2^nd-round picks don’t get guaranteed contracts), and not improve his game in any real tangible way (unless he pulls a Christian Ponder and organizes workouts himself, not likely).  Williams is light on his feet, has a nice touch around the basket, is a decent rebounder… and that’s it for positives.  Negatives: he’s generously listed at 6’10” (I believe he’s closer to 6’8”), which will severely limit his ability to be effective in amongst the trees he will face at the NBA level; while he was in much better shape as a sophomore than he was during his freshman campaign, he’s a barely average NBA athlete; he can’t shoot outside of 5 feet; he’s slow; and he was a poor defender in college (which won’t exactly get better at the next level).  Now he goes to New Jersey, where he’ll battle for a roster spot against overpaid journeymen bigs Dan Gadzuric, Johan Petro, and Brandan Wright for the right to back up Brook Lopez and Kris Humphries.

Look, I’m not going to say he’s definitely going to be a bust and be out of the league without a whimper in 2 years.  But isn’t the smart money on that scenario?  It’s such a shame too; with at least one more year if not two of development at Maryland, perhaps Williams could have led the Terps deep into March with an improved game (and better teammates).  With that would have come the recognition and publicity worthy of a 1^st-round pick, and it would have been deserved, since he likely would have a much-improved game (I’d like to see him add a reliable jump shot and improve defensively, in moving without the ball, and in passing out of double teams).  Instead he chose the easy way out, to cut corners with false promises of NBA glory.  Good luck, Jordan; you’re gonna need it.