Week 2 Review: Minnesota Twins

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

This is the 3^rd edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins.

Record for the week of April 8-14: 2-4

Overall record: 4-8

• This column was pretty glaring as to the issues with this club so far.  Here are a few additional offensive stats for you, as a follow-up to the column: this team has scored 36 runs in 12 games, the fewest in the major leagues, and has yet to score more than 5 runs in any game.  Entering Thursday’s play, the Twins also have the lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the majors at .589 (next closest: .601), the fewest extra-base hits in the league with a meager 24, and the fewest homers with only 3 (next lowest: 6).   Oh, and it’s not like they’re being patient at the plate either, drawing a league-low 25 walks.   And now we have writers questioning Mauer and Morneau.  Yikes.  You don’t have to look much farther than the offense to guess as to what most ails this 4-7 Minnesota team.

Missing in action.

• Speaking of Mauer, it just looked like something had been wrong with him this entire season, and he has now been diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness, which ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell describes as a "very unusual" injury.  Apparently the leg injury has been caused by overcompensating for nagging pains in his upper body, including his shoulder and elbow.  Some guy named Steve Holm was called up in Mauer's stead, and Mauer as of now is expected to miss just 2 weeks.  Here's hoping.  As if the Twins really needed this right now

• The pitching hasn’t exactly been stellar either, and the above column pointed this out quite acutely.  The notoriously-strong control this pitching staff as displayed over the last decade has not been prevalent thus far in the 2011 season, as a staff famous for limiting its free passes has not so far, posting a 3.64 walk rate (walks per 9 innings), 24^th out of 30 MLB teams.  This is of particular concern because…

• … Infield defense has also been brutal, and just because Tsuyoshi Nishioka struggled a bit when he was healthy, don’t think for a second that the infield D is actually better with him out.  Fill-in SS Matt Tolbert made a bone-headed error in the 1^st inning of Wednesday’s loss to Kansas City, and overall, the infield is responsible for 7 of the 8 errors Minnesota as committed so far (that’s tied for 8^th in the league).  For a pitching staff that, aside from Francisco Liriano, greatly relies on their defense to perform behind them, this is a disturbing trend.  Jonah Keri detailed this before the season started, so it’s not like this is a new phenomenon.  But it’s not good, and here’s hoping Nishioka can be part of the problem when he returns.

• Speaking of Nishioka, the injury he sustained in last Thursday’s game against the Yankees was considerably more minor than was originally thought, as he suffered just a small break in his fibula, won’t need surgery, and could return by the middle of May.  This is welcome news, as the injury easily could have been much worse, and the Twins need his improving defense and ability to handle the bat in the #2 spot in the order.

Hey Bill Smith, call this kid up!

• Touching back on the offense, I can’t help but think this team is fatally-flawed.  The Twins competed in 2006 and 2008 with offenses that not only could beat you with power and clutch-hitting, but with speed as well.  As the old mantra goes, speed never goes into a slump.  The lineup has very little speed to speak of, as only CF Denard Span and SS Alexi Casilla are healthy and quick enough (and play regularly enough) to wreak havoc on the basepaths, but neither have made any impact there whatsoever (Span has 2 steals and the injured Nishioka has 1).  Without players that can reach base on infield hits, or take extra bases once on base, the lineup is much more vulnerable to a slump.  And we’re seeing that now, as pretty much every single Twins hitter is struggling at the outset of the 2011 season.  As a result, don’t be surprised to see OF Ben Revere, 2-time Twins Minor League Player of the Year, in the big leagues soon.  Revere stole 44 and 45 bases in the 2008 and 2009 season, respectively, but didn’t hit much in his brief cup of coffee in the majors last season (5 hits and 2 walks in 30 plate appearances, one caught stealing).  However, Revere has hit at every minor league level, including posting an impressive .930 OPS (with a .433 on-base) in Class A ball in ’08.  He could make more of an impact on the Twins team than people realize right now, if the organization lets him.  The Twins don’t have to go back into full-time Piranha mode from years past, relying on speed more than power to score.  But not at least channeling this mind-set through the utilization of the speedy players on the bases could be the Achilles ’ heel of the Twins’ bid to three-peat as AL Central champions.

Siiiiiigh.

• “Not everything has gone wrong though, as I would like to point out the MVP of the Twins season thus far: Matt Capps.  I’ve personally dubbed him the Firefighter, for his ability to put out fires at the most opportune time for Minnesota.  He has rescued the Twins on more than one occasion, being the difference-maker in 3 of the Twins’ 4 victories.  Thus far he’s allowed just 3 hits and 1 run over his 6 2/3 innings (5 appearances), but his stats don’t explain the impact he’s had.  He came on with runners at 1^st and 2^nd and nobody out with the Twins clinging to a 3-2 lead.  A sac bunt, weak groundout, and fly out later, and the Twins were out of the inning.  He threw 2 innings of a tie game at Yankee Stadium following an improbable 4-run Twins inning to enable an equally-unlikely Twins win, and he wiggles out of a 1^st-and-3^rd, 1-out jam in a tie game against Kansas City with a pop up and strikeout, another game the Twins would eventually win.  It’s safe to say that without Capps, this team would be 1-10 right now.”

Yup, I really wrote of all that yesterday.  Prior to last night’s debacle of a loss.  Sometimes I hate baseball.  One of those times is right now.

Alexi Ogando, exactly the type of player the Twins need, and don't have.

• Speaking of Capps, here’s another problem I have with the Twins’ front-office: their complete lack of faith in power arms, eschewing them in favor of softer-tossing strike-throwers.  Don’t get me wrong, this philosophy isn’t all bad; the Twins have led the American League in fewest walks in 6 of the past 7 seasons.    But I look at a team like Texas, who reached the World Series in 2010.  They had nothing but electric arms in their bullpen, including Alexi Ogando and closer Neftali Feliz who regularly can reach 99 MPH on the radar gun.  What makes these guys so tough?  Look no further than their strikeout rates (strikeouts per 9 innings, or K/9): Feliz was at a ridiculous 11.32 in 2009 in 31 innings, and following last year’s full season of 69.1 innings, he finished at a 9.22 K/9.  In 41 innings last year, Ogando posted an 8.42 K-rate, following a 2010 Class AAA K-rate of over 12, forcing his call-up to the bigs.  The best K-rate posted by a Twins reliever last season?  A solid 8.21 by Jesse Crain (who now pitches for the rival White Sox), except that was his career year, as he had never posted a strikeout rate better than 7.49 prior to last season.  Capps, while having amazing success this season, also has never posted a K-rate better than 7.62.  In recent years, we’ve seen a trend that championship-contending clubs boast bullpens of flamethrowers, piling up strikeouts that lessen the impact of a defense behind the pitcher.  Granted, Joe Nathan posted consecutive seasons of 12+ K-rates.  But that was pre-Tommy John surgery Joe Nathan, and his stuff hasn’t exactly been electric so far this year (though I still have hope that he’ll get it back as the year goes on).  But without a stable of hard-throwers in the back end of the ‘pen, a team doesn’t figure to have postseason success, and the Twins unfortunately fall into this category.

• Looking ahead, things don’t get any easier, as 3 more games in Tampa are followed by a 4-game series at Camden Yards against the upstart Orioles.  Nick Blackburn will make 2 starts over that span, which is a boon for Minnesota given his outstanding start (0.77 ERA over 11 2/3 innings so far).  He’ll need to be on his game, as the offense looks to find its footing without its All-Star catcher for at least the next 2 weeks.