NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Finals Preview

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Note: all statistics obtained from ESPN.com unless hyperlinked

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #2 Miami Heat

Regular Season Results: Bulls won 3-0

Expect a lot of contested shots amongst these 3 over the next 2 weeks.

Analysis of matchups:

Point Guard

The rightful MVP.

What more needs to be said? The Bulls feature Derrick Rose, the recently-crowned league MVP, who provides the ultimate mismatch for any defense.  Hopefully his back doesn’t hurt too much, since he’s been carrying his Chicago teammates all year long.  In all seriousness though, any dip in Rose’s play will spell the undoing for the East’s top seed, as he shoulders such a load offensively for the Bulls that they simply will not be able to overcome less-than-stellar play from their floor general.  Of particular concern for Chicago has to be Rose’s lackluster postseason outside shooting.  Though Rose is averaging more points in the postseason than during the regular season (28.8 vs. 25 ppg), his minutes predictably are up (37.4 to 40) and he’s taking more shots (19.7 to 23.3) and 3’s (4.8 to 6.5).  And he’s making a lower percentage of his shots, as his FG% is down to 41.8% from 44.5%, as is his 3FG% (33.2% to 25.4%).  However, the Bulls are heartened by Rose’s marked improvement in drawing fouls and reaching the free throw line, as his FT shooting numbers are considerably up (6.9 to 9.3).  Rose has dealt with a sprained ankle he aggravated at the end of Game 1 of the Atlanta series, but ever the professional, he never has used it as an excuse.  And he will have to be best player in this series, better than LeBron and Wade both, for Chicago to make their first post-Jordan NBA Finals appearance.

Mike Bibby has been a member of the Heat for 22 games plus 10 playoff games since his trade from Atlanta and subsequent buyout by Washington, but let’s face it, he’s just not good anymore (remember, Atlanta traded him for Kirk Hinrich, hoping they would get an upgrade at backup PG).  He hasn’t been good in 4 years.  His assists per game have declined every year over that span.  He’s a liability defensively, and obviously has no prayer of staying in front of Rose.  The one thing he brings to the table is 3-point shooting (he shot a career-best 44% this season), but the Heat have 2 other taller and more athletic players who can also shoot 3’s (James Jones and Mike Miller).  Bibby has averaged just 20.5 minutes per game this postseason, while backup Mario Chalmers plays at a 24.8 mpg clip.  Good thing Miami has taken note of this and played Chalmers more, as Chalmers ranks 7^th among all players this postseason with a +/- of 69 (a measure of how the score changes while a player is in the game), while Bibby isn’t in the top 50.  Miami will also often play SG Dwayne Wade at the point, eschewing the traditional point guard completely, and may need to go to a PG-less lineup more frequently this series, for defensive reasons.

GIGANTIC Advantage: Chicago

Shooting Guard

The best player on Miami. Maybe not the most talented, but the best.

As big of an advantage as Chicago has at the point, Miami has an equally large advantage at the off-guard spot.  Dwayne Wade is back in 2006 Finals MVP form, playing at an MVP-level all season long.  His awe-inspiring performance throughout the Boston series carried Miami, and his herculean efforts will be on full display come Sunday night.  The Bulls really don’t have an excellent on-ball defender to check him, since they’ll also have to deal with LeBron on the other wing, so an aggressive Wade could be lethal to the Bulls’ chances.  One thing Wade is not is a good outside shooter; he’s upped his 3-point attempts this season (1.9 for his career, 2.7 for the 2010-11 season), and he’s making 3’s at just a 25% clip in 10 postseason games so far.  If Chicago’s bigs can consistently knock Wade down on his drives to the lane, he may be decreasingly likely to go inside and would rather take outside jumpers.  If he falls in love with his average outside stroke, Chicago can and will exploit it.

Keith Bogans is the starter for Chicago, but he doesn’t bring a great deal to the table, and frequently splits time with backups Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver.  He’s shot the 3-ball well this postseason (19/39, 48.7%), and he’s a decent defender.  But he’ll be greatly tested to stay in front of Wade in this series.

GIGANTIC Advantage: Miami

Small Forward

Hey LeBron, you gonna help D-Wade and be the MVP we all know you can be?

This matchup isn’t as one-sided as you may think.  Sure, LeBron James is a 2-time MVP, averages a 27-7-7 for his career, and has arguably as much basketball talent as anyone who has ever graced the planet earth.  But he has reached just one NBA Finals, and fled to Cleveland for Miami and the help of a fellow superstar in the hopes of achieving that championship dream.  James has been examined ad nauseum by friends, teammates, coaches, heck, even the barber down the street, so I won’t attempt to scrutinize his psyche further here.  What I will say is that he can disappear for long stretches of games, leaving the heavy lifting to Wade.  And he also takes way too many outside shots for my liking, especially for someone who’s built like a dump truck like he is (just a 32.9% career 3-point shooter).  But when he’s active, involved, and attacking, there is no player in the world more breath-taking to watch than LeBron.

Chicago features Luol Deng, who is probably the captain of the NBA’s all-underrated team.  Deng has always been a capable scorer (career 16 ppg) and shooter (47.1%), and is an athletic, long defender.  His assignment is now against James, arguably the most difficult individual matchup in the league.  The key to stopping James is similar to stopping Wade: pack it in with your interior defenders, knock James down on his drives, and convince him to take more outside jumpers than he probably should.

Substantial Advantage: Miami

Power Forward

The determining factor of this series.

The key to the series lies here, as both Bulls PF Carlos Boozer and Heat PF Chris Bosh are capable of carrying their teams’ offenses for stretches, but have been oft-criticized for their no-shows at crucial moments in the postseason.  Freed from no longer having to go toe-to-toe with the best post defender of this generation (Kevin Garnett), Bosh should find himself able to function more openly in the Heat offense.  Bosh’s 20 points and 12 boards in Miami’s Game 4 win in Boston in the conference semis were the key to the victory; he holds the keys to Miami’s chances of advancing to the NBA Finals.

On the other side of the coin lies the enigma that has become Mr. Boozer, whose playoff failings thus far have been much-documented.  He has been dealing with a turf toe injury in the postseason, which provides a good reason as to why Boozer’s numbers have plummeted from 17.5 points per game on 51% shooting to 11.8 ppg and 44.5%.  To say Boozer has been a liability in the first two playoff rounds is inaccurate: Boozer’s rebounding numbers are virtually the same (9.6 vs. 9.5), and his free throw shooting has been considerably better (70.1% vs. 82.8%).  And he finally showed up offensively in the Bulls’ clincher in Atlanta in Game 6, submitting a 23-point, 10-rebound, 5-assist performance in a series-high 35 minutes.  For Chicago to advance to the NBA Finals, they need Boozer’s pick-and-pop to be flourishing alongside Rose’s penetrating and kicking.  Much like Bosh determines the fate of Miami, so too does Boozer for Chicago.

Slight Advantage: Miami

Center

Hey man, you got a problem?

Thank goodness Coach Erik Spoelstra finally saw the light: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, never the most fleet of foot at center, has become so wooden now that he’s to the point of being unusable, so Spoelstra has gone to energetic and spry Joel Anthony, who is such a fan-favorite that Heat fans chant “M-V-P!” when he goes to the free-throw line.  It’s rare for a 2-ppg player to have such an impact on a team, but Anthony is well-respected by his teammates for his relentlessness on the boards and tenacity on the defensive end, and seems to relish his unheralded role on the Heat club.  He’s also a great representative of the sheer will it takes for some players to reach the NBA level, as Anthony was undrafted out of UNLV and made the Heat out of Summer League as a 25-year-old rookie in 2007.  And he has taken advantage of his opportunity tremendously, and is now starting and playing big minutes on an NBA Finals contender (his minutes are up from 19 in the regular season to 31 in 10 postseason games). He likely will be assigned the pivotal role of defending the high pick-and-roll and challenging Boozer in this series.

Joakim Noah, chief antagonist of the Bulls and someone you’d love to have on your team and hate to play against, mans the middle for the White and Red.  He’s never been, and never will be, much of a scorer (his 11.7 ppg during the 2010-11 season was a career-best), but he isn’t asked to be by his club.  His impact lies completely in his pick-and-roll and individual defensive excellence and in his rebounding proficiency.  The Bulls MUST rebound effectively in the series and limit Miami’s second-chance opportunities to win; Miami has more offensive weaponry than does Chicago, and asking a defense to stop LeBron and Wade multiple times on a single possession is a daunting task, even for a stout defense like Chicago’s.  Noah and his frontcourt mates must prevent Bosh and Joel Anthony from tip-ins and offensive rebounds.

Notable Advantage: Chicago

Bench

Chicago legitimately goes 10-deep with its rotation, succeeding at times while playing reserves at all 5 spots.  The Bulls have great difficulty scoring with a lineup featuring backup C.J. Watson at point guard, but their team defense doesn’t even remotely regress.  SG Ronnie Brewer is a pesky defender, and the Bulls have 3 legitimate big guys off the bench they can go to in Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, and Kurt Thomas.  Korver provides sharp shooting off the bench, and can light up in a hurry (47.4% from 3 this postseason).

Miami’s bench is noticeably shorter and much less effective most nights.  SG James Jones dropped 25 points and 5 3’s on Boston in Miami’s game 1 win in the last round – then scored a combined 11 points over 97 minutes combined over the next 4 games.  Juwan Howard has supplanted Ilgauskas in the rotation, and let’s just say he’s not exactly the 1995 version of Juwan Howard.  Mike Miller’s never truly looked right after missing the season’s first 28 games due to a thumb injury (and is averaging just 5 minutes per postseason game).  Mario Chalmers and Jones are the only two even remotely reliable reserves available to Miami.

Notable Advantage: Chicago

Coaching

In Spo he trusts.

Both head coaches are inexperienced in their current gigs (Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau is in his rookie season as head coach, while Spoelstra is in just his 3^rd year as the head man for Miami), but both feature deep and wide-ranging experiences within the NBA.  Spoelstra knows the Miami organization inside and out, having began as a video coordinator with the club in 1995.  Thibodeau, recently awarded the 2010-11 NBA Coach of the Year, was most recently the associate head coach under Doc Rivers in Boston, and is widely regarded as the architect of the Celtics’ dominant (and in the case of 2007-08, league-leading) defense.  He has taken his talents to Chicago (I couldn’t go the whole column without that pun) and transformed the Bulls into the NBA’s best in ESPN analyst John Hollinger’s Defensive Efficiency metric (the number of points an opponent scores per 100 possessions).  I give Thibodeau the slight edge here due to the defensive proficiency of his Bulls, but Spoelstra isn’t to be underestimated.  No coach is more prepared than Coach Spo, and given all the trials and tribulations his Heat team has gone through this year, what’s one more?

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Intangibles

Miami is peaking at exactly the right time, while Chicago needed 6 games to dispatch the schizophrenic Atlanta Hawks in the previous round.  Although Miami’s post-victory celebration in its win over Boston was much-maligned, they deserved the chance to rejoice, as LeBron and Wade got past their Beantown nemesis for the first time.  Now they take their evil empire to the Windy City, who, along with their leader, have a major axe to grind against their South Beach foes and would like nothing more than to spoil the party.  Chicago certainly has the Court of Public Opinion on their side, but Miami comes to town with confidence, swagger, and a pair of superstars who’ve carried a massive set of expectations from the moment they put pen to paper on their new contracts last summer.  LeBron and Wade have each performed at MVP-caliber levels all season-long; do they, particularly Wade, have the legs for two more playoff series?

Slight Advantage: Miami

The pick: Chicago in 7

Expect a lot of chippiness: Rose is still a bit peeved that Wade spurned his hometown team for the glitz and glamour of Miami; Joakim Noah may be the most disliked player in the league among opponents, and you know he may come to blows with Bosh or even another instigator like Juwan Howard; Wade has some punk in his game, and he will be assigned the task of guarding Rose for much of the series.  Both teams are excellent defensively, both have plenty of weapons from the 3-point line, and both unquestionably feature star power.   The mysterious disappearance of Carlos Boozer may come back to rear its ugly head for Chicago; if they are challenged to score in the interior against Miami’s weakness, their lack of intimidation in their frontline, the Bulls have no chance.  But Boozer’s breakthrough Game 6 in Atlanta is harbinger of things to come in my opinion, and I believe in this Bulls team.  In the end, it comes down to a 2.5-man team (Miami) against a defensive juggernaut led by the league’s MVP.  Sure, two superstars are better than one.  But if you get no help from anywhere else in the lineup (yep, that comment is for you, Chris Bosh), even 2 superstars won’t defeat the consummate team Chicago has assembled.  Miami gives Chicago everything it can handle, but ultimately comes up just short of besting Rose’s Bulls in an epic 7-game slugfest that may be better represented in a heavyweight title bout than on a basketball court.  Don’t expect many games to reach 90, let alone 100 points (even LeBron says so).  But you don’t need mountains of points to be scored for this to be an entertaining series.  Buckle up, boys and girls; we’re in for quite a treat.

In this column, I professed that Miami vs. Boston would be a battle for the soul of basketball.  Well, round 2 of that battle is about to begin, and Chicago is much more equipped to defeat Miami than Boston was.  Expect an astoundingly competitive and well-played series full of breathtaking moments and no love lost; it’s going to be fun to watch.

Minnesota Twins Week 6: Is there any hope?

This is the 5^th edition of my weekly take on the week in review for the Minnesota Twins. I apologize for the lag time between posts. 

Note: all images obtained from a Google image search at google.com

Overall record: 12-23

Scott Baker, the current ace of the Twins staff.

• Scott Baker has easily become the best pitcher on the Twins staff, and he is a joy to watch, having thrown 4 consecutive quality starts going into Wednesday’s versus Detroit.  He has a very repeatable delivery, consistently throws strikes (his K-rate and K/BB rate of 7.8 and 3.4 entering Wednesday’s start are team-best), and he has undoubtedly been the most effective pitcher on the staff to this point in the season (his 2.97 ERA is also team-leading).  He has been one of the few bright spots of the team so far, helping keep a rotation afloat that has had its share of struggles (Carl Pavano’s ERA stands at 6.64 after 7 starts, and Francisco Liriano, despite the no-hitter, was hammered for 4 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in just hits, and his ERA now is 7.07).

• Unfortunately, Baker was the victim of a very tight strike zone from an inexperienced umpire, jacking up his pitch count early in the game and contributing to his early exit in the 5^th inning.  Baker seemed to lose his sharpness as the game went along, with 3 consecutive hard hits leading to 3 runs in the 5th.  He walked an unusual number of batters (5) and was removed after throwing 99 pitches in just 4 1/3 innings.  A disappointing game from a pitcher the Twins needed badly to pitch well and try to help end a 4-game losing skid.

Meet the 2011 Minnesota Twins All-Star!

• The MLB All-Star Ballot was unveiled back on April 26, and the Twins will be seriously challenged to identify ANY of its players that should be in uniform in Anaheim on July 12.  While watching the game against Detroit on Wednesday, I was questioning whether any Twin was truly deserving of the honor, because let’s face it, basically the entire team has been an unmitigated disaster over the season’s first 34 games.  But in the bottom of the 3^rd the Twins got a run on a 2-out RBI single from the man who answered my question: Jason Kubel NEEDS to be an All-Star.  This is quite a departure from the household names Twins fans are used to seeing at Midsummer Classics (Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau, heck, even Francisco Liriano), but Kubel has been absolutely lights out hitting in front of Morneau in the #3 spot in the order, and deserves his spot at the All-Star Game.  Check out these numbers entering Wednesday’s play: played in all 34 games, .347 BA, .400 OBP, .904 OPS, 153 OPS+ (a ballpark-adjusted measure of a player vs. the league average of 100), by far the best on the team and one of only 2 Twins with an OPS+ of more than 100 (Denard Span is the other).  There isn’t even another Twin in the discussion; as much as I like Baker, his stats aren’t All-Star worthy; Mauer has played in 9 games total and doesn’t have a timetable for his return; Morneau is still feeling his way back after a concussion (and his .204 BA, .552 OPS and 55 OPS+ is nothing to get excited about); Delmon Young has missed more than half the year; Nathan only pitches in blowouts because he can’t be relied upon in high-leverage situations; even with the improbable no-hitter, Liriano is among the worst pitchers in the AL; and virtually every other Twin is either struggling or an injury replacement (and playing like it).  Hey Ron Washington, there’s no way Kubel is going to be voted into the All-Star game from the fan vote; do Twins fans a favor and name Kubel to the 2011 American League All-Star team.

• A late point to add to Kubel’s candidacy: his MAMMOTH 3-run blast in the bottom of the 7^th on a 1-1 fastball off lefty Daniel Schlereth capped the Twins’ rally and put Minnesota ahead 6-5.  Just put him on the team right now.

Too late for a mulligan on that trade?

• It is absolutely incredible just how horrendously bad the Twins catchers have been this year at the plate.  In 20 games, Drew Butera has hit .109, with a .290 OPS, and an astounding -18 OPS+ (again, the league average is 100).  Steve Holm (.118 average before being sent down) and Rene Rivera (still without a hit in 9 at-bats so far) haven’t fared all that much better.  Now, I defended the trade that sent stud catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for reliever Matt Capps last year; then-closer Jon Rauch was certainly no hero at the spot and an upgrade could certainly be used, and long-term, Capps could be used should Joe Nathan struggle at the outset of the 2011 season as he recuperates from Tommy John surgery, which typically takes 16 months to fully recover from (and he certainly has struggled).  But you can’t help but wonder, given just how well Ramos has hit for the Nationals this year (.301 BA, .358 OBP, .824 (4^th among 21 qualifying MLB catchers), 128 OPS+, all of which may add up to an All-Star appearance), if the Twins made the right deal.  The lack of catching depth is appalling and inexcusable, given Mauer’s thorough injury concerns; not having major league-caliber back-up options have come back to rear its ugly head in a big, big way.

Let's not go overboard on the praise, people.

• I would be remiss not mention Liriano’s improbable no-hitter last week on the South Side of Chicago, but there really isn’t much to say.  Is it an outstanding achievement?  Without a doubt, yes.  But is this indicative of future success?  Last night may not have been the most defining of his future performance as he is still recovering from lingering flu symptoms, but here are his stats from prior to the no-no: 23 2/3 innings, 27 hits, 24 runs, 18 walks, an opposing OPS of .897 (basically, the average hitter hits like an All-Star against him), 9.13 ERA, 1.91 WHIP).  In addition, everything added up for a success that night: a cold night, against a bad-hitting, fellow last place team whose marquee free agent addition (1B Adam Dunn) has been a black hole (.184/.325/.330 slugging, 82 OPS+, 3 HRs, 15 RBI in 30 games).  It still took 123 pitches to complete the game, and Liriano walked 6 batters while striking out only 2.  According to statistician Bill James, his Game Score of only 83 was well-below the no-hitter average of 91, and is dead-last in the history of no-hitters.  So let’s not jump to conclusions, people.  The no-hitter, while a grand achievement for a pitcher badly lacking in confidence, is hardly a predictor of things to come.

Bill Smith! You listened to me!

• One last note: in this column, I mentioned the need for the fatally-flawed Twins to add more piranha-like qualities to the lineup (in reference to the ’06 and ’08 Twins), specifically speedier slap-type hitters.  Ben Revere fits this mold, and his track-star speed was put on display in the 8^th inning on Wednesday against the Tigers.  On first with Matt Tolbert at the plate with 1 out and his team trailing 7-6 following a demoralizing go-ahead 2-run homer by Tigers SS Johnny Peralta, Revere motored all the way around the bases following Tolbert’s double to right.  Revere crashed into catcher Alex Avila and scored to tie the game as the ball flew past Avila to the backstop.  This is the type of player the Twins lacked for the first month, and Revere could make a huge difference for Minnesota in the months ahead.  The only issue is, will he get enough at-bats?  And will he make the most of them?  Or will he get most of his opportunities as a pinch-runner?  Time will tell.

Looking Ahead

Jose Bautista, or as ESPN's Steve Berthiaume calls him, Joey BATS.

 

• The rugged schedule for Minnesota continues, as Toronto visits Target Field for the only time this season over the weekend.  Upon conclusion of the series, the Twins will have played 24 of their first 36 games against AL East clubs.  In addition, Minnesota heads out on the road once again for 7 games, with stops in Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona for Interleague play.  It all just seems so unfair for a team that has played the fewest home games in the majors and is still missing Mauer, Young, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (although Young is expected back in the coming days).  Given the absence of any semblance of offense, and an inconsistent rotation giving way to an overworked and ineffective bullpen, it is very difficult to see how Minnesota can possibly overcome this massive hole they’ve dug for themselves.

Analysis/Running Diary of Heat at Celtics, Game 3:

• Absolutely incredible energy to begin the game, as the Celtics completely fed off the energized hometown crowd whose enthusiasm clearly has transferred over from the previous night, where they saw their Bruins sweep Philadelphia to advance to the NHL’s Eastern Conference Finals.  I believed all week that the Celtics weren’t even close to being out of the series, despite being down 0-2 after 2 demoralizing losses in Miami.  I kept saying: just wait till they get back to Boston.  LeBron James will not face a more intimidating postseason environment than the one he’s about to walk into, and I have all the faith in the world Boston will come out flying and look to even the series before heading back to Miami.  I remain steadfast in this belief until proven otherwise.

• Playing off this point, it’s also extremely encouraging to see the start F Paul Pierce is off to: 10 point, 3/4 from the field, including a 3, as Boston took a 16-7 lead by the first media timeout.  Pierce, as well as the rest of the Celtics, seemed lethargic and downright old in Miami.  Not tonight, however.  The C’s came to play, emphatically stating to the visitors, “NOT IN OUR HOUSE.”

• Shaquille O’Neal finally got up from the bench with just under 5 minutes to go, the 1^st event of a dizzying sequence: a crazy save by James on a ball headed out of bounds that ended up in Dwayne Wade’s hands for a ringing slam, and right after that, Ray Allen got loose for his 1^st 3-pointer of the night.  You don’t need the Black Eyed Peas to tell you, tonight’s gonna be a good, good night.

• Shaq’s first bucket came on an acrobatic reverse lay-up, but he immediately came up hobbling, looking down at his calf.  To his credit, however, he stayed in the game.  Still, announcer Jeff Van Gundy said the event was “borderline sad.”  There’s no borderline about it; one of the toughest things to watch in sports is the decline of a once-great player.  Shaq is a top 15 all-time player, the most dominant force on the planet during the first Los Angeles Lakers three-peat from 2000-02.  Noted ESPN columnist Bill Simmons ranked him #11 all-time in his Book of Basketball.  But Shaq’s prime ended 6 years, and he played a total of 5 minutes from February 1^st until tonight.  Here’s hoping Shaq can give Boston at least 15 minutes per night the rest of their season (however long that may be), because his larger-than-life personality will give his Celtics teammates a lift even if can’t give them much production on the floor.

• Once Shaq checked in, I got to thinking about the bench matchup between the two teams.  Miami’s dominated in the 1^st two games of the series, and promptly gave the team a boost.  Mario Chalmers dropped a quick 8 points upon his entry into the game, James Jones nailed a 3, and Joel Anthony made his 1^st 5 shots as Miami jumped to an 18-6 edge in bench points.  Miami’s top 3 bench guys have consistently outplayed the top 3 of Boston (although Delonte West played better in game 2), and are a big reason why Miami leads the series 2-0.  Boston must get steadier point guard play from West and more aggressiveness from Jeff Green and Big Baby Davis to win this series.  Not sure if they have it in them; we’ll see.

• Ray Allen picked up his 3^rd foul with 6:48 to go in the 2^nd quarter, on a ticky-tack but correct call on a Wade 3-point attempt.  Wade made all 3 freebies, as Miami took their first lead of the game at 36-34.  Miami survived the initial onslaught from Boston, rallying from an early 11-point deficit.  And the greater Boston area grows nervous with each ill-advised missed shot and tardy defensive rotation…

• Kevin Garnett’s back-to-back jumpers ended a 10-0 Heat run at the 3:17 mark of the 2^nd quarter, over the outstretched arm of Chris Bosh.  Which got me thinking: oh right, Bosh is out there.  It certainly didn’t seem like he was, however; 15 minutes, 3 shots, 2 points, 1 rebound.  Where you at, big fella?

• KG’s reinsertion into the game results in a 7-0 Boston run and a 41-40 Boston lead.  Garnett MUST dominate the matchup against Chris Bosh for Boston to have any chance at making this a competitive series.  So far, so good.

• West collided with Anthony on a drive to the basket, and favored his left (shooting) shoulder on the next defensive possession.  No matter: the C’s got a stop, PG Rajon Rondo pushed the ball in transition, and hit the trailing West at the 3-point lead, who calmly knocked down the 3.  What shoulder injury?

• At the half: Miami 46, Boston 44.  Key stats: Miami’s bench – 21 points, 9/13 from the field, 2/6 from 3, 9 rebounds; Delonte West – 12 minutes, 10 points, 4/5 from the field, 2/2 from 3; Joel Anthony à +/- of +13 (and an MVP-of-the-game-so-far mention from Wade); 3-point shooting: Miami 2/10, Boston 4/4; Fouls: Miami 4, Boston 8.

• Overall, it was a very even first half.  Boston’s initial energy level carried them to an 18-7 lead, but the Miami reserves rallied the Heat.  Aside from James’ save leading to Wade’s reverse dunk, the half was somewhat devoid of thrilling moments.  Bosh was invisible.  Glen Davis’ perplexing lack of production continued (5 minutes, no shot attempts or rebounds).  Paul Pierce missed his last 7 shots after making his 1^st 4.  It’s hard to figure what will happen in the 2^nd half, but here are some predictions: James and Wade will complete at least one epic 2-on-whatever fast break, Rajon Rondo will NOT be held scoreless for the entire game, and the crunch time sequence will be heavily scrutinized after the game, in one or another.  Here we go…

• Mike Bibby’s bricked 3-pointer makes him 0/5 from the field.  And on the play, LeBron was being guarded by Rondo on a switch.  Ridiculous.  No wonder fans scream for Chalmers to be put back in the starting lineup.

• Wade has abused Ray Allen all night so far, on both ends.  Wade has scored 17 points, drawn 3 fouls on Allen (leading to 7 FT attempts), and limited Allen to just 8 points and 1 3-point attempt.  Wade really is an athletic marvel, not only able to perform like a superstar on the offensive end (and take an incredible amount of abuse on his repeated drives to the basket throughout his career), but also chase around Allen against all kinds of screens designed specifically to get him an open shot.

• To continue an earlier point: why Bibby and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas continue to start games and halves for Miami is mystifying.  With those two on the floor, Boston exploded on a 16-4 burst to turn a 2-point halftime deficit into a 10-point advantage.

• Oh no.  The Boston crowd ranges from a chant of “Wade You SUCK” to complete exasperation as repeated video is shown of the Rondo injury.  In his frustration after losing the ball on a good defensive play made by Rondo, Wade pulls the defenseless Rondo to the court.  Rondo, in self-preservation, puts his left arm down to brace his fall, but the weight of Wade bends Rondo’s elbow in an unnatural way, and live, it appeared to be hyper-extended.  And now the agonizing wait begins before the unveiling of his condition and prognosis…

• Mark Jackson, halfway through the 3^rd quarter: “Has anyone seen Chris Bosh?  Kevin Garnett is without a doubt the best big man on the floor.”  Not surprisingly, Boston led 60-50 at the time.

• Continuing an earlier point, Part 2: Allen was fouled hard by Wade one possession after a foul wasn’t called, and he took umbrage, getting up quickly to confront Wade before being vigorously restrained by Garnett.  Things are starting to get chippy…

• The 3^rd quarter belonged to Kevin Garnett: an impressive array of spin moves and jumpers, to go with the unconfirmed kidnapping of Chris Bosh.

• Glen Davis didn’t even get up off the bench for the 3^rd quarter.  How the mighty have fallen.

• Rondo’s diagnosis: dislocated elbow.  It was popped back in, and he will try to return.  Wow.  An epic 4^th quarter awaits.

• End of the 3^rd quarter: C’s 72, Heat 61.  Important stats: Boston 28, Miami 15 in the quarter; Kevin Garnett – 14 points, 3 boards (for the game: 31 minutes, 12/17 from the floor, 26 points, +19 +/-, 13 rebounds.  KG is without a doubt the MVP of the first 3 quarters.

• Rondo re-entered the game and promptly grabbed a one-handed rebound with only his right arm, then dribbled with only his right hand.  Ruh roh.

• Well, look who decided to show up: F Jeff Green ended the 3^rd with an excellent one-on-one defensive possession against James where, with help from Pierce, caused a turnover.  He then followed that with a cutting layup (on a sweet dish from Shaq), and cut again to the bucket where he was fouled (and made both free throws).  Green, the centerpiece in the Kendrick Perkins deal in February, came under tremendous scrutiny, not only due to his lack of production, but also his on-court demeanor.  All of which makes his sudden outburst in energy level such a departure from the rest of his time in Boston.  This is refreshing for Boston, their fans, and me, who actually wrote this column.

• A missed rebound leads to RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY ALLENNNNNNNNNNNN FORRRRRRRRRRRRR THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!! Boston by 16, 9:33 to go.

• Wow.  You just can’t say enough about Rajon Rondo.  Clearly hurt and left arm rendered virtually useless, Rondo continues to will his Celtics on both ends.  Incredible.  This is what the playoffs are all about.

• Speaking of the disappeared: check out this line on LeBron James – 35 minutes, 10 points, -21 +/-, 4/13 from the field, 4 boards, 4 assists.  The Boston homecourt has become the great playoff equalizer.  83-65 Boston, 7:30 to go.

• A near half-court prayer from Pierce with the shot clock at 1 punctuates a resounding Celtic win.

• Final score: Celtics 97, Heat 81.  A tale of two halves: C’s 53, Heat 35 in the 2^nd half; Kevin Garnett dominates Chris Bosh (28 points, 18 rebounds to 6 points, 5 rebounds); 3-point shooting: Boston – 9/18, Miami – 5/23; Jeff Green – 21 minutes, 6 points, outstanding energy, good perimeter D.

• Rondo: “It’s broken.”  Stay tuned to this situation.  But my God, what a game from the Celtics point guard.  As the NBA prophesizes: “Where Amazing Happens.”

• Game 4, Miami at Boston, Monday, 7 PM, TNT. LET’S GO.

NBA Playoffs, 2nd Round Thoughts and Predictions

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

Regular season results: Bulls won 2-1

Key matchup: Bulls PG Derrick Rose vs. Hawks PG Jamal Crawford

Thoughts: This arguably is an easier matchup for Chicago than in their first round series vs. Indiana.  It has often been said that the Bulls have one gear.  They always go all-out, full-tilt, on every possession, in every game.  Their best player, probable MVP PG Derrick Rose, as well as bigs Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson, are all max-effort players that don’t know how to take a possession off.  Contrast that with the talent-rich yet effort-challenged Atlanta roster, and it would be quite a shock if the Hawks really competed in this series.  At times, their first-round series vs. Orlando was downright unwatchable, as both teams settled for contested long 2-pointers and 3’s early in the shot clock, and didn’t seem all that interested to even be playing.  Not a recipe for success against the motivated #1 seed.  Atlanta might win one at home thanks to the consistently excellent play of 6^th man Jamal Crawford (a team-best 20.5 PPG in the first round vs. Orlando despite averaging just 29.8 MPG, including an outstanding 45.9% from 3-point range), but Chicago will win more close games than they don’t, and should put away the Hawks in 5 games, with a couple of beatdowns thrown in (the 2 Bulls victories over Atlanta this year were by 18 and 33 points, with the latter in Atlanta).

Prediction: Bulls in 5

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics

Regular season results: Celtics won 3-1

Key matchup: Celtics SF Paul Pierce vs. Heat F LeBron James

Thoughts:  The most anticipated of the 2^nd round matchups, and quite frankly, this is a battle for the soul of basketball.  The contrasts are stark: old-school vs. new-school, blue collar toughness vs. glitz and glamour, the consummate team vs. a collection of 3 talented individuals and a rag-tag group of teammates, the original Big 3 vs. the Unholy Trinity (my favorite nickname for the 3 Miami stars).  I still firmly believe that as PG Rajon Rondo goes, so goes Boston, but I’m feeling better about his performance going forward than I did heading into the playoffs, thanks to a dominating 1^st round series against an overwhelmed New York Knicks team (19 PPG, 12 APG, 50% FG).  Instead, it is the underrated defensive ability of Celtics SF Paul Pierce that is most important to this series, as he will be matched up almost exclusively against arguably the best player in the world, Heat SF LeBron James.  According to Basketball Reference, LeBron averages the most points (30.6) and 2^nd-most minutes (41.6) against Boston than against any other team.  But LeBron has never advanced past Boston in his postseason career, losing in the 2^nd round in both 2008 and 2010 as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Obviously his current team is much different than those Cleveland teams, but will the outcome be different?  I don’t think so.  Miami still has alpha dog issues in terms of whether James will delegate to SG Dwayne Wade or vice versa, and as a result, the Heat have struggled mightily in late-game offensive execution.  Boston has much more reliable and consistent crunch time roles, and the old guard survives and advances to the Eastern Conference Finals after an all-out war against Miami.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Western Conference

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Regular season results: Grizzlies won 3-1

Key matchup: Thunder PF/C’s Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka vs. Grizzlies PF/C’s Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol

Thoughts: An intriguing matchup featuring young up-and-coming teams, these 2 teams have the ability to get up and down the floor while also displaying tough-to-handle half court offenses predicated on differing styles.  Memphis’ strength lies in the post, where manchild PF Zack Randolph has become a reliable and devastating problem for opponents down low.  He is joined by C Marc Gasol, who has such tremendous girth and strength that he shoved around Spurs PF Tim Duncan like a rag doll throughout the Grizz’ first round upset victory.  On the other side, Thunder C Kendrick Perkins has the physical ability and mental fortitude to deal with the Grizzly bullies on the inside, and brings a championship pedigree the team had lacked.  Teammate PF Serge Ibaka is now free to roam as a devastating weak side shot blocker, and he showed his newfound freedom in the closeout victory over Denver in round 1, blocking 9 shots and having the greatest impact in the game despite scoring just 1 point.  The Thunder offensive talents are more of the perimeter variety, as they feature a top-5 player in SF Kevin Durant, and a top-5 point guard with Russell Westbrook.  Memphis PG Mike Conley performed brilliantly against Spurs PG Tony Parker in round 1, and must be up to the challenge against Westbrook for Memphis to be competitive in this series.  Also fun to watch will be to see how excellent perimeter defenders F’s Tony Allen and Shane Battier try to contain Durant.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Regular season results: Lakers won 2-1

Key matchup: Mavericks C Tyson Chandler vs. Lakers C Andrew Bynum

Thoughts: Shockingly, this is the first time these two teams have matched up in the NBA playoffs since 1988.  That’s right: Kobe and Dirk have never competed against one another in postseason play, despite the lengthiness of their careers (15 years for Kobe and 13 for Dirk).  I picked against Dallas in round 1 in my first round preview column, and it’s very hard to see them beating the two-time defending champions.  The most interesting matchup is in the middle, as Chandler has transformed Dallas into a competitive interior defensive team with his length and shot blocking ability.  He will be challenged by the strength and crafty scoring talents of Lakers C Andrew Bynum, who remains the key to a Laker 3-peat.  One intriguing item this week was the unexpected news that Mavs F Caron Butler may be able to play at some point in the series after having missed the last 52 games of the season following surgery to repair a torn patella tendon in his knee.  But head coach Rick Carlisle squashed those rumors yesterday, and the Mavs will go with what they have.  Alas, the weakness of the Laker defense is elite point guard play, which Dallas simply does not have with an aging Jason Kidd and backup J.J. Barea.  Dallas also will have major problems containing the matchup nightmare that is F Lamar Odom, who F Shawn Marion likely will be given the task of defending for much of the series.  All-Star F Dirk Nowitzki will likely be matchup with Lakers All-Star F Pau Gasol for much of the series as well, and the battle between the two savvy 7-footers will be compelling.  The other subplot to watch is the health of Lakers future Hall of Fame G Kobe Bryant, who has missed practice between series to ice his sprained left ankle.  Bryant would have to be carried off the floor before he ever willingly left, but will any of his movement be compromised?  In the end, Los Angeles has too much talent, and their championship mettle will carry them into the Western Conference Finals.

Prediction: Lakers in 6